Corona Virus Daily Thread #24

[Mariner]

Daily thread #23 here:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3826809/posts?page=1

[PA Engineer]

It is the same situation in some hospitals in the Pittsburgh area. Some of them get it and some don't.

In many health systems, incompetent administrators were pushed to the top with the affordable care act. Does anyone really expect them to be able to handle a real emergency now.

[bgill]

5 republicans can’t vote - in quarantine with Rand positive

[bgill]

Planes should have been shut down 2 weeks earlier. Maybe even earlier since Trump’s the one who knew of this long before us peons.

[cgbg]

Less than 1% of Italy has been infected with a virus with rapid spread, no immunity and no vaccine.

We are in the first inning of this game...way way too early to even begin to figure out how it will play out...much less which pitcher will get the win...or the save...or the loss...

[abigkahuna]

j

[semantic]

Exactly. Take the chart data, run some different growth assumptions, and then back into HCS impact.

Lot's of ways to do it. For example, if ICU mortality is 5%, then we would need 20 ICU per death. Ramp up death projections, ramp up required ICUs. Compare those projected numbers to total inventory, as well as add'l capacity quickly coming on line.

Will we exceed capacity, and then flip over to the Italian problem with cascading death totals driven not just by CV, but the lack of ICU that could normally facilitate recovery?

Once again, the model is freely available; knock yourself out running projections. But, I have to stay, at this point, I see our HCS handling the peak wave. After that, it will be just piling up points ie infection/deaths beginning to drop as ICU/beds capacity ramps up.

Once the crisis is past, Trump can pivot to militarizing CDC as a front line defense force no different than our nuclear detection early warning system. DoD/CIA really screwed the pooch on this one. Worried about pissant terrorists, Russia, Russia, Russia, and other associated boogiemen, when the $1 trillion dollar asteroid from China nailed us right in the kisser.

All the capacity planning, production, rapid response, etc will be incorporated into a new bio-terror defense force. Like Pearl and 9/11, we won't get caught with our pants down again.

[RummyChick]

this is an interesting Drs video about why this new drug works to get zinc into the cell to stop the replication

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M

I hadnt seen it before.. It explains it so that a non scientist can understand

The trick now is to find things that are not prescription. I believe someone had mentioned quercetin. I think Artemisinin will do it too

I am not keen on taking stuff like this due to unknown effect on liver.however.. i would take it if i feel like i might have Wuhan

[BusterDog]

Website predicts point of no-return for intervention to prevent hospital overload by state:

https://covidactnow.org/?fbclid=IwAR3SDCYVHaxmheyRJkmnMgWWjEHyG3OvykcfFjQVWUL9N2YuZHaCE_f6GjY

[cgbg]

Here is the problem.

The virus is not going to hit all hospitals equally, and any point of failure/any shortage (# of doctors, nurses, equipment, supplies) can create a disaster at that location.

Unless you have a full understanding of all of the capacity issues, the model will not give you a good handle of the facts on the ground.

I learned this the hard way as an MBA when I had to actually manage operations.

Murphy’s Law rules.

—and this virus does not play fair...

[semantic]

This is why there are stock markets. You believe - as is your right - that Italy is at a 1% infection rate. Therefore, with current actual fatality trends yeah, you would logically project that Italy could end up with 500k-1m deaths.

So, position yourself accordingly. I, on the other hand, think infection is a moot stat. I'm watching the actual curve - I think it will peak fairly shortly. So, I'm long in the market and real estate. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not.

We'll soon know as more people start considering different kinds of estimates & projections. Like that scene in Oklahoma!, everyone is cheating the line, trying to figure when it's go time.

If you begin to see the market creep/tick up, and then make a mad dash to get in before it's too late, then you'll know that lots of Wall st quants have come to the same conclusions.

[LilFarmer]

Vanderbilt hospital sets up COVID-19 treatment area in parking garage

https://www.fox13news.com/news/vanderbilt-hospital-sets-up-covid-19-treatment-area-in-parking-garage

[mstydoo]

at 430 soon, also ur numbers are way off by like 7000. out of 32 thou that tested positive 31000 have a very mild case
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[LilFarmer]

DC

D.C. reports 21 new cases of covid-19

The District announced 21 new coronavirus cases Saturday evening. Two of those diagnosed include young girls, 9 and 11-years-old.

That brings the total number of reported cases in the District to 102.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/03/21/coronavirus-dc-maryland-virginia-updates/

*****

Coronavirus: 2nd death in DC; cases surge throughout region with more testing

Matthew Delaney

March 22, 2020, 3:30 PM

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser confirms the District’s second death Sunday, a 65-year-old woman with underlying health conditions.
...

https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-positive-cases-continue-to-surge-transit-changes-enforce-social-distancing/

[BenLurkin]

There’s Something Strange About Florida’s Coronavirus Data
https://www.wlrn.org/post/theres-something-strange-about-floridas-coronavirus-data#stream/0
By Daniel Rivero • Mar 21, 2020

A concerned citizen contacted WLRN this week to share information they have been gathering that raises potential red flags about data the Florida Department of Health and other statewide agencies have been sharing about the crisis. The person wanted to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to talk about the subject, but they did send us links, screenshots and pointed us to spreadsheets that, taken together, raise questions about the state data.

Through the tip and further reporting, we have identified a series of instances where information about reported COVID-19 cases altogether disappeared, was removed and then re-added, or might have been altered in some kind of fundamental way, to the point where it is unclear what’s actually being shown to the public.

At one point it was simple graphic tables, then Excel spreadsheets, then PDF documents. The columns of what information is being shown is inconsistent, making it exceedingly difficult to track particular cases, and track nuggets of information that are released through the different formats.

For instance, Thursday’s data contained a column for people who have died. Friday’s version puts that in a separate table entirely. The case numbers for both days don’t match up with one another. One day the case numbers are sorted in chronological order, the next by county.

[BenLurkin]

ping to post 294

“There’s Something Strange About Florida’s Coronavirus Data”

[RummyChick]

so here is a caveat to the Zinc and Malaria medicine idea...from the comments:

“Thank you for this great video. Now allow a science rant:
Please stop hyping this Zn+ PlosOne study. Consider two (serious) caveats of the study:
a) Zink reduces activity of RdRP... HOWEVER any other molecule/ion may do that too (e.g. a strong toxin!). The key point is, it does so WITHOUT AFFECTING NORMAL CELLULAR FUNCTION IN A MAJOR WAY . Naively, this could be assessed by: Use Zn+ and the Zn+ transporter, increase both independently, scatter survival of cells XY.

HOWEVER this is not what authors did. In fact they DID NOT measure cell viabilty with high concentration of Zn AND the transporter at all ! (b) Further, consider that just the Zn transporter (WITHOUT adding Zn!) already decreased RdRP. THIS GOES WITHOUT ANY EXPLANATION.

IMHO this study should be retracted immediately since the red flags this raises are skyhigh.

Please correct me if I’m wrong with anything in this factually.”

[cgbg]

The worldometers numbers do not accurate reflect US hospitalization or critical care numbers, because they are not reported by most states.

[Jane Long]

Somebody posted that they are putting their money and/or mail (??)) in their toaster oven.

We’ve been spraying ours, and leaving it out on our back porch, for a day or two.

[cgbg]

Thanks for the link.

It looks like they know what they are doing...

[cgbg]

I am an old timer—took my profits in the market a while back—and never looked back....