Scouter:
I think your numbers are solid up to 3/26.
I would predict the curve will be bent a little bit from the banning of large gatherings a while back so we come in below your 4/3 number—but by how much?—that is above my pay grade.
There are also are real lab supplies and protective clothing constraints out there—I am not sure the states could actually do a million tests—even if they wanted to—and some jurisdictions are now saying they will only test health care workers and hospital patients.
Bottom line—this is going to start getting weird, and the data is going to start getting more and more unreliable.
I agree with you. The projections are only as good as the data reported. And as things get crazy, I'm not sure that accurate reporting, and even testing, are going to be a priority. Another factor comes into play, too. As more and more people are infected, it will become harder for the virus to find an uninfected victim. So the math behind these projections has a limited lifespan. I just don't know when it will begin to break down.