Posted on 03/16/2020 10:07:59 AM PDT by Mariner
thread # 17 is here...
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3824800/posts?q=1&;page=1
644 cases total in New York City, 187 new
380 cases in Westchester County, NY, 157 new
https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1239926143354101767
Lookner
—
New York first state to report over 1,000 cases.
Yeah, it seems as soon as the narrative takes hold, the virus shifts.
Also, look for more and more stories/research on aerosolization. I think that is one of the discoveries that caused the big WH shift this week.
The hordes of people who won't get sick or only have minor symptoms sure as hell do. And those impacts could be devastating for their families. El oh el.
One more doubling (probably three days) and New York will have run out of ICU beds and capacity (unless they add new make-shift facilities).
:) I appreciate you, LilFarmer
His math, once again focuses on the death rate. For general, public purposes, the death rate is not critical.
By that, I mean the flu itself will kill a minimal number of the species, so I am not focused on that.
What the virus will do is overwhelm the system, make a ton of people sick, and lot of people with other diseases—who otherwise would NOT die, will die as a result of lack of treatment.
Run the numbers of the virus in terms of ICU days. This virus will increase the average stay in the ICU from 3-5 days to 1-14 days. These figures are consistent no matter where the virus is.
There are approximately 18,600 free ICU beds in the country (about 80% of the 92,000 beds are occupied.)
The need is going to be about ten times that, every day across the country—estimated with low infection, hospitalization, and severe respiratory care needs.
Here is the other thing:
* You just don’t “manufacture” ICU beds.
* There are only some many sources of manufacturing. And the virus is going to impact our manufacturing base as well. So if you are hoping for this to move to the USA any time soon—re calibrate your thinking.
* You don’t toss inexperienced ICU and respiratory nurses into these situations. Working a vent the wrong way will leave a person a breathing piece of cabbage. You might as well simply let them die.
This is not about dying. Its about the care needed for serious cases. Even though that is a small number, there is not enough space in the system.
So the keys to take away are:
* Stay away from people to flatten the curve.
* Buy an extra can of beans.
* Whatever you can do to stay out of the hospital would be a good idea.
That has been the message since January. It will be the same for a while.
HONG KONG
Virus found in environmental tests/bathrooms
The Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health had earlier conducted epidemiological investigations of the three cases of COVID-19 in Heng Tai House, Fu Heng Estate in Tai Po, which covered the environmental samples collected from various locations at Heng Tai House. The Government today (March 17) released the test results of the environmental samples. Among the 12 samples collected from the two relevant units of the confirmed cases and the rooftop, four of them were tested positive. Two samples are collected near the water closet of the confirmed case’s unit on the 32nd floor; a sample near the water closet of the confirmed case’s unit on the 34th floor; and another inside the open end of the rooftop ventilating pipe of the foul water stack of Unit 13.
https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202003/17/P2020031700704.htm
**Run the numbers of the virus in terms of ICU days. This virus will increase the average stay in the ICU from 3-5 days to 1-14 days. These figures are consistent no matter where the virus is.**
This is also known as a constraint. I am amazed that more people don’t understand this.
And it's also not possible.
It sounds like you are giving up on society ever returning to any sense of normalcy. We need to get through this initial period.
If it is truly a SHTF situation, why would you be on FR?
Most Americans will cooperate with a two week shutdown.
After that you better have a damn compelling story to tell, or the means to enforce it.
Or both.
MI
Michigan Data:
County Cases
Bay 1
Charlevoix 1
Detroit 6
Ingham 1
Kent 5
Macomb 6
Monroe 1
Montcalm 1
Oakland 14
Ottawa 1
St. Clair 2
Washtenaw 7
Wayne 8
Total 54
https://www.michigan.gov/Coronavirus
One characteristic of the COVID19 is the possibility that one’s immune system “trips” and subsequently goes into an over production mode- to the degree that the antibodies begin attacking “good cells” and in some cases the result is organ failure, leading to death. This harmful behavior can occur quite rapidly.
What are the underlying factors that cause this malfunction to occur in one person yet not in another? Are there common denominators? I’m guessing that research is underway to find the answers.
Or you end up like China where people have seen what the virus does firsthand, making many too scared to go back to work.
I have been predicting for a while that a lot of the “explaining” will have to be at gunpoint.
That is all some folks will ever understand.
“Texas: 57 tested 57 positive.
Texas is going to be another Italy.”
Remember that fiasco over the weekend where everyone was rushing back from Europe to get back to the states and DFW Airport was a veritable human petri dish of coronavirus cultures?
That was Friday night and Saturday night. So we are 3 and 4 days removed from that. Half of the people infected will start showing symptoms in 5 days. Almost all in 11 days.
I think that miscalculation accelerated our area’s infections. I say “our” because I’m a Dallasite.
CA
A homeless man in Silicon Valley died from COVID-19 Monday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said.
He’s the first confirmed homeless person to die of an illness that advocates and experts warn could be uniquely devastating to the nation’s 567,000 homeless people. Meanwhile, homeless people in Salt Lake City and Seattle have also shown symptoms of the respiratory disease in the past week, and have either been tested or quarantined.
Agreed.
Either way, I think we should get ready for government to be much more directly involved in our lives once the large-scale COVID-19 threat passes.
Texas is refusing to show their true tested number (along with several other states).
Outstanding. My son took multiple AP classes and actually taught many of them and did evening review sessions. He was far better versed in the subject than the teacher assigned to teach the class. He scored a perfect 5 on every AP exam. There was a motivating factor in all of this. His girlfriend was a straight A student and he needed to play at that level.
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