Here is a chart of the actual SARS case load and a fit of the logistic function to the data for Hong Kong...
...Taiwan...
...Singapore...
...and Canada (with it's quirks)...
Now, reasonable people can debate as to how to best 'flatten the curve.' I don't think these countries vaporized their economies to stop SARS, but they certainly imposed SOME controls. I also don't think they just sat there and fiddled. But as I've said elsewhere, I don't like Dilemmas: Give me Door Number 3!
Actually, according to the Mayo Clinic, COVID19 is a type of SARS.
“Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that can cause illnesses such as the common cold, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). In 2019, a new coronavirus was identified as the cause of a disease outbreak in China.
“The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).”
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963
According to “of one of the many Kevin Duffy’s on the ‘net.” who gives us nothing on which to evaluate his knowledge or credibility on the topic.
Hard pass.
Logistic fittings for COVID-19:
“Based on the data from 11. Mar 2020, a very rough estimate indicates that the number of cases [outside China] will be about 90000 (Fig 7); data from 13. Mar 2020 rise this number to 380 000. However, it is an early-stage epidemic, so these estimates are very questionable and will be changed with new data.” - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339240777_Estimation_of_the_final_size_of_coronavirus_epidemic_by_the_logistic_model
Thanks for posting; bookmarking....
I hope this sort of model for COVID-19 is how it goes. Even the possibility eases my mind.