Logistic fittings for COVID-19:
“Based on the data from 11. Mar 2020, a very rough estimate indicates that the number of cases [outside China] will be about 90000 (Fig 7); data from 13. Mar 2020 rise this number to 380 000. However, it is an early-stage epidemic, so these estimates are very questionable and will be changed with new data.” - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339240777_Estimation_of_the_final_size_of_coronavirus_epidemic_by_the_logistic_model
I agree - Mr Duffy got it...and sadly it was 15 years ago and nobody (except us) is reading it.