[DEPcom]

“COVID-19 has now killed 0.00008% of the world’s population. If we aren’t careful that number might rise to 0.00015%. Essentially, you have a 1 in a million chance of dying from the COVID-19. Probably 1 on 10 million if you’re healthy. Fact: 1 in 22 million is about the risk of dying in a commercial plane crash in the US every time one flies.”

This is why a lock down will not work. You have to many people who do not recognized the danger of COVID-19. They are convince the virus is vast left wing conspiracy to destroy President Trump. They need to go back and listen to President Trumps declaration of National Emergency.

Then you have the other groups I am young it will not effect me. They are on spring break and do not care. That group will be going home soon because the colleges are close to spread the virus in their home towns.

Then you have the Just A flu bro crowd, who misinterpret data (just like the global warming crowd) to back their belief that this a nothing.

[griffin]

Unfortunatly, Bingo.

But if a few people take it seriously, it will help.

The more people that take it seriously the better off our health system will be and the less we’ll be taxing the doctors and nurses and the number of respirators we have.

[DoodleBob]

The "it's just a flu bro" types are just as ignorant and dangerous as the "it's exponential bro" types, like this doctor.

Let's use some actual data...

As I wrote elsewhere, you'll notice that early on, the rate of growth is quite high. And then, the growth rate tails off and it eventually stops. This is the second half of the curve that the "its exponential, bro" hyperbolists forget.

Now, reasonable people can debate and discuss WHY this curve flattens out - that is, why the lily pads don't eventually overtake the pond. The reality is that while the INHERENT R0 may be greater than 1, once controls are put in place the RESIDUAL R0 is less than 1. In other words, R0 isn't constant...or, more precisely, INHERENT R0 + CONTROLS < 1.

The daily rate of growth in confirmed cases in the US has averaged 43% for all of March; it was 11% prior to March. Therefore, if I consider this chart and project the US confirmed cases as a function of today's count and the rate of growth in Hubei (if you believe their data) from the end of January (which is similar to the US growth rate today), it's likely the US could see 40.5k confirmed cases in one month (April 13).

But then, something wonderful happens. The controls kick in (as they did in Hubei, where the daily growth rate of new cases - if you believe the data - fell below 5% starting on Valentine's Day) and then the curve will flatten out.

Now, 40.5k cases out of 329MM people isn't bad - it is 0.012% of the nation. It is a LARGE number, to be sure, but it is smaller than the entire 67,786 case count for Hubei and the zillions of cases promoted by several 'experts' and resident hysterics.

Now, certainly you'd expect with the entire nation being in lockdown, people obsessively washing hands and elbow bumping, and shifting their entertainment from bar hopping to Netflix streaming, it is possible the 40.5k count may be lower. However, it's fair to ask - is shutting down EVERYTHING a reasonable control? They didn't do it with SARS and we lived...notwithstanding this isn't SARS, IS the impending vaporization of the economy worth it?