Posted on 03/11/2020 10:50:15 AM PDT by RummyChick
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told lawmakers during a House Oversight Committee hearing Wednesday that COVID-19 — the disease caused by the novel coronavirus — is probably about 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.
President Trump has often compared COVID-19 to the flu, which affects tens of thousands of Americans each year, in an effort to calm people down, but Fauci clearly wasn't trying to downplay the seriousness of the virus' spread. Fauci is a member of the White House's coronavirus task force.
At the same time, he did clarify that 10 times figure actually brings the new coronavirus' fatality rate lower than official estimates, which hover around 3 percent. The flu has a mortality rate of about 0.1 percent, so, when considering the likelihood that there are many asymptomatic or very mild cases that have gone undiagnosed, Fauci places the new coronavirus' lethality rate at somewhere around 1 percent. While that's a good deal lower than the current data suggests, it still would lead to significant numbers of fatalities, and makes the flu comparisons seem pretty questionable.
(Excerpt) Read more at theweek.com ...
What’s your opinion on this development in South Korea?
https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3?op=1
That would put it at 1%, mostly people over 80.
“Cold and Flu season basically ends in April. Its reasonable to expect this to start winding down soon.”
That would be good this will free up resources...
Is it a stock for a gun?
10 TIMES sounds so much worse than 3%, so guess what the media will run with.
Us dumbass deplorables never heard of Michael Mann and his globull hockey stick graph.
Is that what a genius like you means when you say that a 'bunch of people' don't understand?
You condescending, arrogant ass. Piss off.
At 1% death rate, if it infected as many as flu typically does, coronavirus would kill between 90,000 and 450,000 in the USA if no special countermeasures were taken.
I’m thinking it’s far lower than 1%, but it seems to be very contagious like norovirus, more than flu.
I’d guess # of infections badly underestimated, death rate badly overestimated.
It’s even lower than that as their testing does not include those with very low viral loads and those that had it and recovered.
Because dead people can't type?
10x more lethal than flu.
Seasonal flu is about .1%
So this puts it under 1%.
“So its about the same threat level as the Spanish Flu. A once in a century pandemic.”
I am thinking it will be between .3 and .7 base on South Korea numbers of .7% death rate.
Worst then the flu but way lower then the Spanish Flu. It will be better this time because of advancements of our Health System. People will die, but not as many people are predicting.
I really hoping it is just a flu and I am wrong.
I don’t see why anyone is losing it over this anyway. We’ve only got 10+ years left on the planet.
you cannot be intubated outside the icu and not everyone in the icu will be intubated so your numbers are backwards. And these numbers are for those sick enough to seek care or testing.. i’m sure we will have more cases/deaths. So far this is not as bad as swine flu. We will see what happens but spreading misinformation and panic helps no one
“I’d guess # of infections badly underestimated, death rate badly overestimated”
This seems like a reasonable statement.
The problem with Just The Flu crowd is that we don’t know yet the long term damage done to the body
Anyone who has dealt with breathing issues knows that it is a hell of a way to live...avoid damage to lungs if possible.
It is also quite possible that this does what the Spanish Flu did in terms of circulating around the world more than once and getting worse.
If it is an escaped unperfected bioweapon we don’t know what could be next.
I don’t know where it all shakes out..but I am prepared.
Well, my wife and I are not 80+ or even 60+, but we each have different (and very common) “underlying conditions”—and if we get it, our odds of surviving are supposedly somewhere between about 9/10 to 14/15.
Not “catastrophic” odds.
But also not “ordinary flu.”
it’s clear a bunch of people here on free republic do not understand epidemiology or medicine but feel free to opine none the less
Why bother. If 10,000,000 get infected that's only 100,000 deaths. About a football stadium full of people. Don't ask how many hospital beds would be required to hold it to that figure.
Now if it spreads like the Swine Flu virus this would mean 60,000,000 infections. And 600,000 deaths.
Apparently no big deal. Certainly no reason to panic.
For some.
“10 TIMES sounds so much worse than 3%, so guess what the media will run with.”
Fun with Numbers.
Simple division had some MSM geniuses fooled last week.
They believed that the $500 million that he had spent on his campaign equaled $1 million per American. The actual number is about a dollar fifty.
So considering how daunting division is, one can only imagine how their heads spin with percentages involved.
There is also a wide variation in seasonal flu. The morbidity and mortality rates are quite different with influenza A and influenza B. H1N1 is worse than some other A strains. I suspect this will fit somewhere on the spectrum
Thanks for the posts RC, hope that you’re feeling better today!
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