“In Italy the current death rate is running at 6.6%.”
No it isn’t. To know the death rate have to know how many cases there are and they don’t know that. Recorded cases may be a small minority of actual cases.
Alex Macheras
@AlexInAir
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35s
Breaking: Kuwait ban ALL commercial flights to/from Kuwait International Airport from Friday until further notice — this is huge
My contact in Italy is very intelligent, has made millions in the stock market. He calculated the rate by actual deaths so far in Italy divided by actual number who have fully recovered. I agree with him that is a good formula.
The true death rate is how many people will die from it without treatment. That indeed is somewhere between 5% and 10%. That's why it's so high in Italy. It's out of control and they can't treat everyone. That's why it's high in Iran too.
You are exactly right. Actual fatality rate is probably under 1%. See actul stats below.
Re: “In Italy the current death rate is running at 6.6%.” “No it isn’t. To know the death rate have to know how many cases there are and they don’t know that. Recorded cases may be a small minority of actual cases.”
The country that has done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea , they have tested well over 250,000 and have 7,869 cases and 66 deaths for a fatality rate of .008 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran ) you get over 20,446 cases and 247 deaths for a fatality rate of .012-about 1%. Probably lower and more in line with S Korea as many cases are even more mild. As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases and death rate dropping as it already has started to do.