My contact in Italy is very intelligent, has made millions in the stock market. He calculated the rate by actual deaths so far in Italy divided by actual number who have fully recovered. I agree with him that is a good formula.
“I agree with him that is a good formula.”
I submit that it will not turn out to not be a good formula. We will never know the true death rate because most people never know they have it as they spread it, especially younger people.
A better formula would include the deaths in both the numerator and denominator:
Deaths / (Deaths + Recovered)
Because you want to divide the deaths by the total number of confirmed cases.