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To: SheepWhisperer

The mathematical issue with your numbers is that until testing is consistently performed, that is the limiting factor. That was the case early in China.

Honestly, what you are measuring is the same as extrapolating the weight of a newborn baby.

I would be careful putting too much faith in growth rates until the testing is widespread.


651 posted on 03/10/2020 3:06:26 PM PDT by Vermont Lt (“Everyone who needed to be tested were tested.” DJT at first presser. Absurd.)
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To: Vermont Lt

Linking to journal articles on covid-19:

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3823365/posts?page=1#1


671 posted on 03/10/2020 3:17:51 PM PDT by WildHighlander57 ((WildHighlander57 returning after lurking since 2000)
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To: Vermont Lt

Only tracking confirmed cases and their doubling rate.

Yesterdayay was 702 cases
If the doubling every two days holds, like it has again today, then tomorrow we’ll be 1404 total cases.

I’m doing simple stuff here.

And if the doubling of cases sticks to this rate, we can get an idea what next week looks like.

Any further extrapolations and inferences are left to experts


928 posted on 03/10/2020 5:51:52 PM PDT by SheepWhisperer (My enemy saw me on my knees, head bowed and thought they had won until I rose up and said Amen!)
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