Only tracking confirmed cases and their doubling rate.
Yesterdayay was 702 cases
If the doubling every two days holds, like it has again today, then tomorrow we’ll be 1404 total cases.
I’m doing simple stuff here.
And if the doubling of cases sticks to this rate, we can get an idea what next week looks like.
Any further extrapolations and inferences are left to experts
Your metrics on cases is fine. It’s your linear projection that’s not.
In the next few days your numbers will rise so fast that your projections will have every person alive being infected. And then some.
The pace you are using is as if you took today’s stock market gain and applied those returns for the next thirty years.
Until there have been massive testing in the US, any projected growth rate using simple math will be flawed.
We went through this all in China. Until we recognized a solid pattern. That pattern was caused by the limiting factors of the testing kits.
Not saying not to keep tracking. Just be careful with the doom projections. There is enough of that already.