In order to fully understand what you’re saying please define all your terms...
Actual case?
Reported case?
Spread?
As I understand it...
Actual cases should be those confirmed by test
Reported cases are not necessarily tested and therefore unknown.
What is known is how it is increasing, based upon tested confirmed cases.
As such,.my chart is tracking confirmed actual cases. Retorted cases are not known, because they’re not confirmed by test, but merely unsubstantiated claims, as yet umpteen by test.
My numbers in the chart are confirmed cases by testing as given to us.
Reported cases...not quantifiable, veritable and unknown. However, without any doubt there are more cases than those confirmed, which have not yet and may never be tested.
So we go with what what we know...confirmed cases proven by test. These are the numbers in the chart.
Unconfirmed, unverified claims are not and should not be counted in case doubling rates.
“Spread” is a loose term, not quantifiable, or verifiable unto you define what you mean by “Spread”...region, people groups, state?
I’m only cataloging doubling rate.
Please share charts you may have to offer.
Here’s a good one in the form of graph, showing data points along the way (confirmed cases each day).
If you have issue with the daily totals please take that up with the CDC, because they’re reporting the numbers here.I I’m merely tracking doubling rate based upon the numbers.
Now if I have interchanged the terms reported and actual/confirmed, then my mistake. From here forward you can take the numbers as confirmed cases.
...reported by the CDC =O)
I see the problem.
No, the number of “tested cases” is NOT the number of actual cases. Has no relation. “Tested cases” are dependent on testing. For example: no tests = no cases!
At some point the testing starts. There’s already a pool of cases present so they find many cases quickly. And the more they test the more they find.
So there is a huge growth in the discovery of cases.
But they’re just discovering the pool of cases that was already there. And probably started growing a month ago.
Eventually, of they test enough like SK did, they start iinding fewer cases