You’re confusing the rate of discovery with the rate of spread.
THE RATE OF SPREAD IS REPORTED AS DOUBLING EVERY 6 DAYS.
The rate of discovery of cases reflects only testing efforts.
Exactly. In no way does it show how fast this thing is really growing.
“THE RATE OF SPREAD IS REPORTED AS DOUBLING EVERY 6 DAYS.”
The early data out of China said an R0 of 3.8. With an incubation overage of 5-7 days.
That would indication 3.8x every six days for prevalence of infection, with with the hospitalization curve lagging by about the same 6 days.
We can expect a lower R0 than China mostly because of cultural differences.
But how much lower?
And China had to close down 1/2 their country to slow and reduce the R0.
Would the US do that?
Very much agree that REAL rate of spread is unknown because not everyone is tested and minor cases are shedding without testing.
Tucker claimed SIX DAY doubling rate of spread, based “on EARLY numbers” (listen carefully to his monologue), which, if you average the daily cases posted since 01/27, or first case, there were weeks where nobody was tested. Some doubling took 24, or 27 days to double, but the CDC wasn’t testing. Average all the data and yes, every six days.
Since February 27 the tested cases double every two days. This his based on widely publicized data each day.
So, at this point, all we can go on is confirmed, tested cases unfortunately and look at the future trend. Maybe doubling rate goes to every four days, who knows, but for the past twelve days it has consistently doubled every two days.
Please check the graph at worldometer.