Doubling rate forecast
Two days ago there were 475 cases
If the 2-day doubling rate holds consistent as it has since February 28, then by tonight it would be...
950
...we began today with 702 and have 802 at this moment and still 7 hours of more data gather on the West Coast time zone. We’ve added 100 cases less than half way through the day.
It’s just math
Tonight I’ll post the numbers since January 27 again, with updates. We’ll see, but Good Lord let’s hope this rate decreases
The only way to stop the doubling is with mass quarantines, military guards enforcing them.
Everything else just slows it down a little bit, maybe takes a day or two off a month of doubling.
You’re confusing the rate of discovery with the rate of spread.
THE RATE OF SPREAD IS REPORTED AS DOUBLING EVERY 6 DAYS.
The rate of discovery of cases reflects only testing efforts.
Exactly 1 week ago, to the hour, we had 118 cases in the U.S. Today we have 805. That’s 6.8 times as many cases in just one week.
1 week = 805 * 6.8 = 5,474
2 weeks = 5474 * 6.8 = 37.223
3 weeks = 37,228 * 6.8 = 253,118
4 weeks = 253,118 * 6.8 = 1,721,201
We’ll see if it really plays out that way, but that’s how the numbers would go if we keep up this rate of increase.