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To: justa-hairyape

I have a theory on the 40-50% hospitalization rate.

It is based on the number of people in Italy who are tested.

If you live there and you are feeling ok you do _not_ want to get tested, particularly if you are young and in decent health.

So the tests many not have found many tens of thousands of Italians who are actually positive but feel ok.

This is such a tricky business.


1,009 posted on 03/10/2020 7:09:38 PM PDT by cgbg (No half measures.)
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To: cgbg

I think this is the difference between SK and Italy.

SK tested everybody and quarantined everyone with a positive. Eliminating transmission chains in the process and (it looks like) cut the top off the peak. We hope for them anyways.

Italy turned into a raging dumpster fire because they didn’t mimic SK and start testing everyone as soon as they found a few positives. Contact tracing and quarantining even those with mild or no symptoms became impossible in Italy.

I hope we don’t mimic Italy.

Singapore was on the ball. Still are. Helped I’m sure by the warm weather which ameliorates fomites outside.


1,021 posted on 03/10/2020 7:13:14 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: cgbg

True. But that also applies to the normal flu numbers. We dont over sample the normal flu. Right now I would say only South Korea has over sampled covid19. China numbers are not trustworthy.


1,078 posted on 03/10/2020 7:42:25 PM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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