I think this is the difference between SK and Italy.
SK tested everybody and quarantined everyone with a positive. Eliminating transmission chains in the process and (it looks like) cut the top off the peak. We hope for them anyways.
Italy turned into a raging dumpster fire because they didn’t mimic SK and start testing everyone as soon as they found a few positives. Contact tracing and quarantining even those with mild or no symptoms became impossible in Italy.
I hope we don’t mimic Italy.
Singapore was on the ball. Still are. Helped I’m sure by the warm weather which ameliorates fomites outside.
We are mimicking Italy—exactly.
Imho we are so far along that there is no way to stop us from getting to where Italy is now. The only question is whether it will take us two or three weeks to get there.
The reason is that it takes time to ramp up quarantine facilities (including health care facilities). In addition it looks like our testing is toast (not just _was_ toast, but _is_ toast and _will be_ toast) and is virtually irrelevant.
The only options left are banning gatherings, then quarantines, but without major testing you are flying blind.
At this point I can’t think of any reason we won’t be worse than Italy.
The testing situation is going to create an impossible situation.