Posted on 03/10/2020 5:22:41 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
Continuation of the thread.
Please use this thread to consolidate the discussion and stories.
Not part of the “just the flu” crowd, but flying on a near empty airliner is something I’ve always wanted to do.
For some reason.
Forgot, and posted to old thread, so reposting here.
San Antonio County Commissioners met today. Said San Antonio has received one test kit from the Fed’s, and it is incomplete.
Also cost of a test for uninsured is $2400. Some insurance Companies are waiving the cost of a test-
Blue Cross/Blue Shield
Aetna
United
Cigna Health of Texas, Inc.
Community Health Choice, Inc.
Golden Rule Insurance (UHC)
Humana Health Plan of Texas, Inc.
Molina Healthcare Insurance Company of Texas
Oscar Insurance Company
I forget the others, but I know the one my neighbor has for her ACA policy wasn’t one mentioned. $400 a month, $4500 deductible is not affordable, IMHO.
In TX, this probably means a lot of people who should get tested will not.
Pathetic businessmen more worried about their stocks than their families. The market can bloody well crash for all it’s worth. Playing the market is nothing more than gambling in Vegas. When they gamble more than they can stand to lose, well, they’re just plain stupid.
6
We have a total of ~925k hospital beds in the nation.
We keep them about 65% utilized, on average.
There are approximately 300k beds open, on average.
But the flu is using some as it’s still having a moderate seasonal impact.
Let’s say for the sake of argument there are 250k beds open.
How many of those beds are at least isolated? How many in ICU?
How many can handle SARS?
I know some stats from research:
There are about 1 million total hospital beds in the United States.
Of these about 40% are available at any one time.
Of this the percentage of ICU beds is much smaller...estimated to be around 80,000 beds or so. A mild flu season is one in which 5% of the population gets the flu.
There are 370 million people in the US. 5% of that is 18,500,000.
IF the coronavirus spreads as much as a mild flu season that means that 18,500,000 will be infected.
Of those infected by Corona 80% will be mild likely requiring no medical intervention. The rest are severe to critical...usually 15% severe and 5% critical.
IF ONLY the critical 5% have to be admitted to a hospital that means 925,000 people will need ICU units.
There's not near enough beds just for that. 80,000 critical care beds total (not all available) and 925,000 needing beds.
If there are 30,000 cases in spread evenly around the country and we use the 5% critical figure that means that 1500 will need critical care. That's workable.
But the problem is that there will be geographic clusters. 30,000 cases in a smaller geographic area will overwhelm the local resources.
The scary part is that these are all BEST CASE scenarios. Only spreads as much as a mild flu. Only the critically ill (those who would die otherwise) are hospitalized. In reality it spreads more easily than the flu and there are more than 5% that have to be hospitalized.
Food riots would be dumb. You’re in the middle of crowds who’s yelling is expelling all sorts of germs at great velocities. It’s not going to bring on more food. They should have prepped at the end of Jan. so no sympathies until many months from now. People who are able may want to start gardens last week.
TX is only officially reporting positive cases (12 as of cob yesterday), not the total tested.
France and Italy MUST step up their hand-washing.
(A bit of levity, for the IJTF crowd. Prayers, for all.)
That’s what I’m doing today in fact.
Starting corn in a bit.
It’s time.
Also squash, peppers and zucchini.
I think we had 60 million cases of H1N1
COVID-19 “Close” to Pandemic
🙄
“THE RATE OF SPREAD IS REPORTED AS DOUBLING EVERY 6 DAYS.”
The early data out of China said an R0 of 3.8. With an incubation overage of 5-7 days.
That would indication 3.8x every six days for prevalence of infection, with with the hospitalization curve lagging by about the same 6 days.
We can expect a lower R0 than China mostly because of cultural differences.
But how much lower?
And China had to close down 1/2 their country to slow and reduce the R0.
Would the US do that?
Very much agree that REAL rate of spread is unknown because not everyone is tested and minor cases are shedding without testing.
Tucker claimed SIX DAY doubling rate of spread, based “on EARLY numbers” (listen carefully to his monologue), which, if you average the daily cases posted since 01/27, or first case, there were weeks where nobody was tested. Some doubling took 24, or 27 days to double, but the CDC wasn’t testing. Average all the data and yes, every six days.
Since February 27 the tested cases double every two days. This his based on widely publicized data each day.
So, at this point, all we can go on is confirmed, tested cases unfortunately and look at the future trend. Maybe doubling rate goes to every four days, who knows, but for the past twelve days it has consistently doubled every two days.
Please check the graph at worldometer.
Really? Hysterical?
He was just stating what everyone else is thinking.
in a coma....
#SanFrancisco #RSAC2020
A
@RSAConference
attendee has tested positive for #coronavirus and is hospitalized, on a ventilator and in guarded condition.
@FireEye
@SecurityWeek
You two are the lucky ones to have a place to go to and having the brains to think ahead.
Results STILL not in.
Grrr
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.