Posted on 03/08/2020 6:00:55 PM PDT by narses
With coronavirus death toll in the U.S. rising to 19, people are becoming increasing afraid of contracting the disease. To date, there are 3,803 reported deaths with 109,835 confirmed cases worldwide. Also a total of 60,694 people have recovered from the virus. As the fear of coronavirus continues to spread, there are a growing number of reports of empty shop shelves as people rush to stock up on basic products such as hand soap, sanitizers, tissue papers, and many more. It got so bad that some stores are now limiting purchases of these products, more due to coronavirus fears.
The fears stem from the misleading information coming from mainstream media about the trend of the virus. The media shows the number of fatalities continuously increasing, on a time-based graph. The problem with this is that, the media only uses a cumulative graph to illustrate coronavirus deaths. However, if you look deeper at the raw data provided by John Hopkins on GITHUB, the number of global deaths per day are decreasing worldwide.
Hats off to Evan at TradeGuru, who first noticed the discrepancy in media’s cumulative statistics and created a more accurate chart. According to Evan’s analysis using the raw data provided by John Hopkins University, “the virus is decreasing in hotspots such as South Korea, China and Hong Kong (the first to deal with the novel virus). The press tells us it’s an outbreak, or a pandemic on the precipice. Both situations would suggest exponential growth. The actual data doesn’t suggest exponential growth of fatalities at all. The data suggests decline. In fact, the crude death rate is statistically 0.”
Also, it’s now being estimated that 80% of individuals that contract the coronavirus are asymptomatic or midly-symptomatic. And in this viral video, Rebecca Fraiser says she “never really felt unwell” after contracting the virus, and it “sounds like it is the case for the majority of people.”
“How do you think the futures are bought and sold.”
The fact that speculators get toasted bothers me, not even a little bit. That is the role they choose. Your ignorance is amazing.
Links?
lepton wrote:
“
“Test or no test, I presume that we would notice if people starting coming down with it on a mass scale.”
Further, without the specific tests the CDC has been putting out, if there were large numbers with symptoms, the disease would have been isolated here through other means. They symptoms have commonalities with the normal flu varieties, but not the same. We’d be picking them up in random chest x-rays and CT scans.”
Good points, lepton; pinging narses...
There is NO WAY you read it and analyzed that post in any kind of critical way in that amount of time. You automatically rejected it without even considering it. You didn't try to refute it. You didn't try to answer it. You didn't offer any other alternatives.
I did exactly what you asked and you made up your own reality.
I am not a floor trader.
I know some FORMER floor traders who ears are to the ground.
Give a rest. You dont seem to have a clue because you cant conceive that Futures market is ALL ABOUT MARGIN
Explain how dropping oil prices ( and falling pump prices ) hurt me? LOL!!!!
“This has the potential to do a Lehman type blow up”
Really? What evidence do you have for that assertion? What bubble exists, where are the systemic risks linked to them? Or are you just blowing smoke out of an alimentary orifice?
ROTFLMAO. You have no clue and no evidence.
Actually thousands have already died of the flu this year. But think how many flu infection there have been this season.
A million?
2 million?
I didn’t look it it up. But you are making an unproven assumption that the number of infects in the U.S., for example, will never get that high.
You could be right but at this point NOBODY KNOWS HOW HIGH THE NUMBER OF CASES WILL GROW TO. The experts don’t know. I don’t know but past history says it could easily be in the millions.
“You dont seem to have a clue because you cant conceive that Futures market is ALL ABOUT MARGIN.”
Ooooh CAPITAL LETTERS now. Good. Sorry, you have yet to provide even a scintilla of reason to believe your fears.
You dont have to believe it. You cant even conceive the Futures market operates on margin.
Btw, No account I have will even let you trade Futures without a MARGIN account.
dropping oils prices don’t hurt you ... but they are a decent leading indicator of a future economic slowdown ... which could cause layoffs ...
Sure. That's why you absolutely refuse to deal with the CDC evidence...the very same evidence you asked me to produce.
You asked for it. I provided it. You have no answer but insults.
I’ve heard a report that this virus can survive on a surface for up to 9 days. Can anyone confirm that?
Oh boy, for the clueless IB doesnt want its head handed to them like with the Swiss national Bank debacle
Interactive Brokers eliminates reduced intra-day margin.
Effective with today’s close of US markets, reduced intra-day margin on all Futures products will be suspended. We will continue to monitor market volatility to determine whether intra-day reduced margin will be restored.
I am for a floating tariff on oil imports to keep the domestic price fixed at $50/bbl. Do it!!!!!
Essentially all of the so called “recoveries” you cited are as reported by China. There are very few being reported by the Western countries.
So at this point that data is useless. But over time people do get well and we will start to see some meaningful counts. But, for now, new cases outnumber recoveries by a huge margin.
Except in China if the are to be believed. Personally I don’t trust them.
‘Btw, No account I have will even let you trade Futures without a MARGIN account.”
OK, so what? If speculators lose why do I care?
A lot of people have shown they are immune to even the most basic of facts. There are a lot of unknowns with this, and there have certainly been a lot of over-the-top posts, articles, and news-coverage. That said, there are a lot of absolutely silly cases of bad math from people who should know better. At this point, it should be clear that deaths/cases during the middle of an outbreak is not merely wrong, but deceitful.
Panic is a problem, but much of the panic was initiated by a prelude of complacency. The methods to deal with this outbreak were simple, cheap, and non-disruptive a month ago. Now we have panic and hording, mostly by those who weren’t paying attention.
For those that just cant get it...
Intraday margin is lower than initial Margin. IB has turned it off.
Now think real hard why even that could cause margin calls.
Going to see if anyone else is deciding to do that.
tonight is a perfect example of why I don’t trade futures contracts unless it is just for a few minutes.
You can wake up and find you are bankrupt
I just do the options. My losses will never be endless with margin calls.
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