Posted on 02/28/2020 1:09:49 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Continuation of the thread
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3820145/posts
Re: 1273 - thank you for clarifying.
MEXICO
Mexico confirms fifth case of coronavirus
By REUTERS MARCH 1, 2020 22:38
A young woman tested positive for coronavirus in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas, state health authorities said on Sunday, marking the country’s fifth case.
Like another woman who tested positive for the virus in the northern Mexican state of Coahuila, the woman in Chiapas was studying in Milan, Italy. The woman tested positive for the virus on Saturday but is ***asymptomatic*** state health authorities said in a press conference.
https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Mexico-confirms-fifth-case-of-coronavirus-619441
Scary.
I wonder how they’ll test/check on this.
It should be no surprise. It's becoming clearer and clearer that this is a major problem for all developed countries and a nightmare for non-developed countries.
Agreed. I keep saying, your healthcare is only as good as it is available.
WHen I searched on Google, search results have been flooded with the word Asian and Corona Virus because there's now panic that non-Asians will respond to Asians with racism because of Corona.
You may like the NYT article today.
Here's a quote re Death Rate:
On Friday, government scientists estimated that the figure could be below 1 percent, roughly the rate occurring in a severe flu season.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-coronavirus.html
Dude, we may need to form a quarantine busting posse to rescue Free Republic.
Even if true the ultimate death rate doesn't really matter. What matters is the number of people that NEED hospitalization in order not to die. If there were plenty of doctors, nurses, respirators and other needed equipment and the rate of transmission stayed very low then yeah, the death rate would be relatively low. BUT we know that a significant portion of people who get it need hospitalization.
Look I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here but that's the ONLY explanation why every government on earth is reacting as if they're terrified of this thing...it's going to crash at least the medical system if left unchecked.
Not Greyhounds then. Good.
Put the mask in the oven at 200F for 5 - 10 min?
Or would that melt the rubber straps.../womp womp>
Even if true the ultimate death rate doesn’t really matter. What matters is the number of people that NEED hospitalization in order not to die. If there were plenty of doctors, nurses, respirators and other needed equipment and the rate of transmission stayed very low then yeah, the death rate would be relatively low. BUT we know that a significant portion of people who get it need hospitalization.
Look I’m not trying to beat a dead horse here but that’s the ONLY explanation why every government on earth is reacting as if they’re terrified of this thing...it’s going to crash at least the medical system if left unchecked.
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I can see we’re just not gonna agree on many things. I was responding to the information you posted as a basis for your reasoning and had no intention of evaluating all of your other reasoning on this issue.
Grey, I appreciate the time you put into helping me understand by providing research. But my objection posted here was limited to the text that he posted - it was wrong. I didn’t want to see the same sentence, which is faulty, used to back 20% infection.
I myself just checked on Asian susceptibility to respond to someone else and see the article I found was Chinese. Now, I’m not suggesting that every bit of info from China is wrong, but they are our enemies and if they are purging their population of protesters, I’m not accepting their demographics and cure rates etc. Research is more likely to be accurate because it can be peer researched world wide. And as I said, it was “early reports” so I have said in another post, I’ll stop posting Asians more susceptible until I see better data, which in this case is “more current” and “validated internationally.”
I will continue to contradict faulty statements like the one I posted about to DouglasKC but I don’t have time to spend on the Corona thread. I wasn’t taking on the entire thread re the research you are doing here - the thread he posted was deleted before I clicked “Post” so I replied to him here.
My post to DouglasKC here brought me 11 responses in addition to his ( and climbing at a time when I’m not keeping up on the other thread so I don’t have time to respond to all the other available data you peeps are sharing - just pointing to flawed data and asking it not be spread, while myself agreeing not to post “Asians more susceptible” unless i come across better data. Thank you, Grey. :)
You would do well to read this oped by an epidemiologist who has been one of the key influenza trackers on flutrackers.com flu for the past 11 years:
A note of caution about confirmed case numbers. COVID19 vs Flu
Today, 10:50 AM
A note of caution about confirmed case numbers.
I’ve seen lots of people recently comparing coronavirus and flu numbers so I want to do a dive in to each.
The US publishes an Influenza surveillance update (FluView) each week. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm The most recent was published on Feb 27 and covered week 8, the week ending Feb 22 so it’s already a little out of date.
The data for week 8 indicates 42,587 cases were tested and 11,249 were positive for flu. The CDC also publishes a weekly estimate on the number of flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the US. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm The latest estimate was also published Feb 27 and covered the period up to week 8. Between weeks 7 and 8, an estimated 3-4 million influenza cases were added. In other words, CDC testing captures a very tiny 0.4% of all cases.
Let’s look at hospitalization data. Fluview gives 15,319 confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations between October 1 and Feb 22. This is an increase of 1,544 over the previous week. In contrast, the CDC estimates that 30,000-60,000 flu hospitalizations actually occurred that week. A figure at least 20 times higher than the captured number. The reasons for this are manifold, but one scenario plays out as follows; someone contracts flu, fights it for a few days, immune system is stressed, overcomes the flu, but develops pneumonia that requires hospitalization. By the time testing is performed, the flu virus is long gone.
And finally, mortality data. Little known fact, the Week 8 FluView does not give week 8 mortality data. It always gives data from the previous week due to serious lags in compilation and reporting. The data presented represents week 7 (ending Feb 15). Going to the original source of this data, https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html you find that at the time of publication (Feb 27), the week 7 data (ending Feb 15) was still only 82.3% complete. Still, 313 coded influenza and 2,401 coded pneumonia deaths happened that week. Using CDC estimates for weeks 6-7, an estimated 2-5,000 influenza deaths actually occurred that week.
In summary, 42,587 influenza tests discovered at best 0.4% of estimated cases, 5% of hospitalized cases, and 16% of fatal cases.
On Feb 16, the CDC reported that they had performed a total of 479 Coronavirus tests with 15 positives https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...296#post830296 , this number dropped to 413 on Feb 20, but increased by Feb 23, to a total of 426 tests performed with 53 positives including 39 repatriated persons from Wuhan (3) and the Diamond Princess (36). I’m guessing that the reduction is due to the realization that the test was faulty, and some test results were thrown out. Either way you are looking at the most at a few dozen tests performed during that week.
What fraction of cases & fatalities do you think those tests captured?
Resources:
Archived flu mortality data & estimates for 2019-20 https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...illance-system
Archived FluView 2019-20 https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...luview-2019-20
Sorry!!!!!!
Sorry!!!!!!
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No need to apologize! I seriously appreciate you putting that information together and will read it if I have time. I apologize for using your research thread to respond to a pulled thread - I hope i haven’t distracted your work here. Again, Thank You for putting together a great post. :)
My daughter suggested this is a cosmetic move, intended to reassure people more than protect them. Especially at this point in time, people don't want to be around people with obvious cold/flu-like symptoms. What should have been more common before -- e.g., stay home when you're sick -- has become more of a priority.
The strap issue is what I’m concerned about.
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