Posted on 02/28/2020 1:09:49 PM PST by Vermont Lt
I moved all my money to cash a couple of weeks ago. I want to look for something unreasonably getting hammered.
(I.e. if companies crash move manufacturing to India and Vietnam, Baltic Dry Index might do...fairly well.)
I wish I’d timed the VIX right. I knew to look.
Or to have backed up the truck on APT...I literally might have made enough to retire.
For starters this is not the flu so comparison like that is wortheless.
Second, 14.8 percent of patients SO FAR infected with this have developed ARDS (Acute Repiratory Distress Syndome)
Source: Clinical characteristics of 50466 patients with 2019-nCoV infection
That's 15% of all patients. That's 15% who FOR SURE would need to be hospitalized and treated...and even after that they have a markedly decreased quality of life...according to wikipedia.
Your statement implies that the "truth" is something other than what is being reported on transmission from mail packages?
This is verbatim what Vice President Pence (whom The Donald hand-picked to head up the Coronavirus response) said, during the news conference held 1:30 PM Eastern on Sat. Feb 29.
That being said, I still can't believe I read Fauci is still maintaining "you can't get re-infected."
Either he's trying to prevent panic, or he's in love with his own reputation.
There's such a thing as "admission against interest" and when a Commie does it (as China did), you'd better wake up and pay attention. It means things are so bad, even a bald-faced like backed up by executions won't be able to hide it.
I have the bulk of my retirement in real estate rentals. I wish I was astute enough in my younger years to have invested wisely. In my 50s now with little in market investments, primarily because I don’t know anything about investing. Had friend who were taken advantage of by investment t brokers so I’m leery of enlisting a person “knowledgae” in investing.
My dad always used to say invest in things you use. Guess that would be wise.
That was from South China Morning Post or similar: it was a doctor in China, who had NOT been to Wuhan, who sat at a conference, at the same table, as a Chinese doctor who HAD been to Wuhan, and caught it from him.
Dr. Fauci can only report what CHina reports. I trust Dr. Fauci’s relaying of the data that China provides - we have no idea if the data he’s given is remotely accurate.
From the start of this, every piece of information coming from China including demographics, outcome and spread, cannot be confirmed outside China. Ordinarily, Chinese reporters aren’t permitted to confirm or deny statistics and responsiveness to what China states as fact, but now they are quarantined.
Any foreign nation reporting can give us whatever statistic they dream up. I’ve read concern that China is taking advantage of the flu to purge undesirables, seems like Iran could the same. We don’t know the treatment protocols and don’t have access to raw data anywhere but in the US. The citizens are caught in the middle.
Also note, early on it was determined that this virus impacts Asians disparately (they succumb to it more readily)
If true, that’s a relief, as long as they don’t mingle with anyone infected.
I think it so bad in China a lot of people in the US are hoping those are fake, a type of denial
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I dont’ believe the Chinese are so ignorant that they would spread contamination. I dont’ believe the CHinese insist that infections bodies be stored on upolstered furniture. I think they would have stored the bodies outside, in a garage, in a utlity room - anywhere but on top of the soiled linens and waiting room chairs. Surely staff wearing face masks and gloves would transport infectious dead, so I can’t believe they would take care to put the dirty linens and contaminated body bags in a waiting room.
I believe it was their effort to fan terror - to suggest that there are so many dead that they had to lie them acxross waiting room chairs. Will they start piling contaminated linens on top of those bodies as the day passes? No - I believe it was photo op.
You cite a Chinese publication. I am just not relying upon their data. Asians are more susceptible, according to early reports, based on the virus’ characteristics. The most sensitive were Asian male smokers.
And, funds are so large, and they are forbidden by law from owning more than XY% of any one company, so they cannot change their mix very readily.
As a result, a mutual fund which is "hot" now, will not likely stay hot.
And as a second result, a low-cost index Fund (say Vanguard S&P 500) outperforms most actively managed funds with less cost.
Add that to dollar-cost-averaging, and, over time, you'll do pretty well.
I understand you don't have 30 years left...but the advantage your real-estate rentals might have, is that
a), they provide "current" income...unless the bulk of the rent you charge is going to pay off the principal, and how far you have it paid down is not any of my business.
b) they are inflation protected, mostly, since as prices go up, you charge more for rent.
c) presumably, you can sell the entire piece of real estate ...but maybe not on a moment's notice.
That was not my statement, that was a copy of a tweet.
There is a reason China bulldozed the streets in and out of Wuhan, and quarantined more people than the entire US population.
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You do know China is a repressive regime, and that their actions have effectively shut down significant, growing protests there, right?
I’m not saying no one is ill, but it is not logical to treat their numbers as real when they have a history of lying and repression.
okay fine.
Asians are more susceptible, according to early reports, based on the virus’ characteristics. The most sensitive were Asian male smokers.
Where are YOUR studies on this? I gave you my studies and you didn't like that they were based on Chinese cases.
Thank you, I was going from memory. It feels like a year ago I read that.
Same with the Italians? This story is about how the hospitals in Lombardy are near collapse...and they have FAR fewer cases than China so far.
https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/lombardia/coronavirus-in-lombardia-ospedali-vicini-al-collasso-loms-serve-una-struttura-ad-hoc_15530357-202002a.shtml
You didn’t answer my question about Dr. Fauci or other research I presented.
S. Korea too
“At a news conference in Seoul a group of doctors and chiefs of public hospitals urged the government to combat a shortage of beds by assigning them to the critically ill, after two patients died in self-quarantine at home”
Men had more receptors than women, Caucasian / Asiatic were comparable, any one who ever smoked got kicked in the nads.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.05.20020107v2.full.pdf+html
Oh, just noted mine wasn't published either, but a nice larger sample set.
Also, this new coronavirus may use other receptors besides ACE2:
A *CHINESE* source — backed up by the French — confirm the significance of, though not the origin of, those amino acid sequences the Indian researchers talked about.
When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.
Instead of hooking up to the ACE2 receptor, the novel coronavirus has a cleavage site on the spike. This tricks something called the furin enzyme, on human cells, to cleave the spike at that point — allowing the viral membrane and the human cell’s membrane to join, effectuating the entry of the virus into the cell.
Guess which viruses actively have their own Furin? Ebola and AIDS.
Guess which viruses DON’T have anything like this?
“The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.”
Remember — confirmed by the French, too, Chinese source.
Meanwhile, a study by French scientist Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research on February 10, also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses.
Here's a list of possible cofactors I came up with awhile ago:
1) Genetics, # of ACE2 receptors.
2) Smoking. Half the world’s smokers are in China
3) Cumulative damage to lungs from air pollution in China
4) General hygiene
5) Viral load —> see hygiene and also social distancing. It’s possible the body can fight of a small number of virus particles, but get too many at once, your body can’t get them all.
6) Medical care: I read China has 1 doctor (or, had, some have died), for every 22,000 people. In the US it’s 1 doctor for 1,500.
7) Medical care: degree of training and facilities for patients
8) Medical care part 2: Wuhan got overwhelmed, that couldn’t have helped.
9) Medical care part 3: political pressures, many in Wuhan just got sent home from the hospital and infected others in their homes
10) disease progression: this coronavirus is said to resemble dengue fever, in which re-infection can occur once the body has cleared the virus. The 2nd infection is unusually nasty, and can result in damage to multiple organ systems or sudden death from cardiac arrest
11) disease progression 2: supposedly, some of the coronaviruses have the disquieting trait, that a vaccination for one, makes subsequent infection with another coronavirus much worse. Supposedly China mass-vaccinated some of its people for SARS (which was another coronavirus)
12) disease progression 3: the virus can incubate for up to 27 days. Since we really don’t know when patient 0 in China first got infected, we don’t know how long it takes for asymptomatic people to start dying: that is, there may be a hidden population of sick in Iran and Italy, if not other places, and they’ll suddenly start showing up in ICUs and morgues. So the low count right now out of China is not a *certain* indicator.
13) Just maybe, it was a bioweapon. If (as rumors based on a true story go), China stole it from Canada, or North Carolina, maybe it was a disease aimed at Chinese people (see ACE2 inhibitors again), and China got careless or their world-famous (*cough*) quality control let it loose, even if they were only looking for a vaccine for it.
14) I have read articles that say the virus is one amino acid substitution away from becoing much MORE tightly bonded to the ACE2 inhibitor. Oh goody. Because coronaviruses are RNA viruses, and don’t have the high-quality mistranscription-checkers that DNA-based things do...so they mutate more quickly.
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