Posted on 02/19/2020 5:53:45 PM PST by Vermont Lt
This will be the forever thread.
I would too. Even if it is only a handful of cases, you think they’d err on the side of caution. There’s just too much we don’t know
Yikes...
As some background, S.Korea was 31 cases on Tuesday, 51 cases on Wednesday, 104 cases today and now,156. It is growing exponentially there.
Apex
@Apex_WW
#BREAKING: #SouthKorea reports 52 new cases of #coronavirus, total now at 156. - Yonhap
I would have thought the median age to be higher. Interesting.
Actually, it’s 46. My bad. I was going from memory. Here’s one study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30026-1/fulltext
The uptick in cases in S. Korea shows you how bad things could get in Japan if some of the current folks turn out to be super spreaders. I read a good analysis from a math geek who said that so far this outbreak appears to follow a 10/90 pattern where 10% of the people are responsible for 90% of the spread. Don’t know if that will turn out to be accurate, but if you look at the Diamond Princess vs. the Westerdam (jury still out on that though, some more of those folks may turn infectious at some point) - looks like they got a bad beat due to the one dude who was either from HK or got off in HK or whatever (I assume he was a Chinese guy who had been in Hubei?) - then spread it like a son of a gun on the ship. But then the Westerdam has at least 1 lady w/ it, who maybe kept to herself and didn’t infect many or any.
Then in S. Korea you have this super spreader church - and WHAM huge uptick - and so far in Japan outside of the cruise you have these small pockets, the taxi drivers, etc - but no blow ups like 50 people in a day kind of thing.
Seems it all depends on the super spreaders, and where they hang out. You get 1 of them in a super crowded, shake everybody’s hands kind of place, or near a food distribution place (crew of DP) - then wham you get a blowup.
I’m just hoping since Alaska doesn’t have a lot of big gatherings or much public transport - that here in Anchorage we’ll have some extra time. The schools will undoubtedly be our weak spot as the liberals who run the Anchorage School District will be really hesitant to close schools in response to any outbreak.
South Korea has a good heath system. Can we state this is serious now, not like a flu outbreak.
Looks like they are locking down Daegu 4th largest city in South Korea.
I’d add that my own kids don’t even attend ASD schools - but I think the private schools will do whatever ASD does, that’s how they decide on snow days.
February 19, 2020 / 7:07 PM / Updated 40 minutes ago
Coronavirus fears create ghost town in South Korea after church ‘super-spreader’
Hyonhee Shin, Ryan Woo
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-idUSKBN20E0AM
In South Korea, Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin told residents to stay indoors after 90 people who worshipped at one church showed symptoms and dozens of new cases were confirmed.
The church had been attended by a 61-year-old woman who tested positive, known as “Patient 31.” South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention described the outbreak there as a “super-spreading event.”
South Korea now has 104 confirmed cases of the flu-like virus, and reported its first death
That number of confirmed cases for South Korea just jump again to 156. I have a bad feeling it will jump another 50 in a little bit.
Good points! Other examples of the super spreaders are the guy in Germany who infected a dozen of his co-workers, the guy in England who infected all those people in France and then in the UK (@nd they are still reeling from that one) and I’ll bet Iran has one. Singapore has possibly two but they are so vigilant that they seem to have a handle on it for now.
Japan worries me too, because they have cases now that they don’t know the source. That’s kind of another milestone pandemically speaking.
Thanks.
Cruise Passenger Whose Coronavirus Infection Went Undetected Shows It May Not Be Possible to Stop the Outbreak From Spreading
Amy Gunia
,Time•February 20, 2020
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cruise-passenger-whose-coronavirus-infection-075910222.html
IDK about these “super spreaders”.
Seems to me they show failures of agencies to discover them.
I’m suspicious of excuses for government behavior.
I don’t think young children are technically “immune”, in the sense of possessing antibodies, but their nascent lungs seem to be resistant to the development of cov-related viral pneumonia. Maybe other forms of resistance as well.
I think all superspreader means is that they have no or low symptoms before they test positive, so they can move freely and infect several others. The woman in Daegu was active, asymptomatic so she managed to infected 15 people before she was diagnosed on Monday.
Yeah, that’s true. People vary in their symptoms.
Still, it’s such a good excuse for government failure...
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