The uptick in cases in S. Korea shows you how bad things could get in Japan if some of the current folks turn out to be super spreaders. I read a good analysis from a math geek who said that so far this outbreak appears to follow a 10/90 pattern where 10% of the people are responsible for 90% of the spread. Don’t know if that will turn out to be accurate, but if you look at the Diamond Princess vs. the Westerdam (jury still out on that though, some more of those folks may turn infectious at some point) - looks like they got a bad beat due to the one dude who was either from HK or got off in HK or whatever (I assume he was a Chinese guy who had been in Hubei?) - then spread it like a son of a gun on the ship. But then the Westerdam has at least 1 lady w/ it, who maybe kept to herself and didn’t infect many or any.
Then in S. Korea you have this super spreader church - and WHAM huge uptick - and so far in Japan outside of the cruise you have these small pockets, the taxi drivers, etc - but no blow ups like 50 people in a day kind of thing.
Seems it all depends on the super spreaders, and where they hang out. You get 1 of them in a super crowded, shake everybody’s hands kind of place, or near a food distribution place (crew of DP) - then wham you get a blowup.
I’m just hoping since Alaska doesn’t have a lot of big gatherings or much public transport - that here in Anchorage we’ll have some extra time. The schools will undoubtedly be our weak spot as the liberals who run the Anchorage School District will be really hesitant to close schools in response to any outbreak.
I’d add that my own kids don’t even attend ASD schools - but I think the private schools will do whatever ASD does, that’s how they decide on snow days.
Good points! Other examples of the super spreaders are the guy in Germany who infected a dozen of his co-workers, the guy in England who infected all those people in France and then in the UK (@nd they are still reeling from that one) and I’ll bet Iran has one. Singapore has possibly two but they are so vigilant that they seem to have a handle on it for now.
Japan worries me too, because they have cases now that they don’t know the source. That’s kind of another milestone pandemically speaking.