Posted on 02/19/2020 5:54:16 AM PST by dangus
The purpose of this article is to present the facts as we best know them, in spite of the media hype. Yesterday, there were about 200 fewer new cases than the sum of recoveries and deaths. There were only about 1,750 new cases, and more than 1,800 official recoveries. It's been a few days now since there were any cases outside of Asia; the last was an Egyptian case on February 14. (No, this does not count the cruiseliner, the Princess Diamond.)
I don't trust China. But if their purpose is to control panic, it seems like the last thing they'd want to do is have to report a second, deadlier wave. And the thing is that all the world's health organizations are using China's stats, and my interest is media hyping nonsense, so I'm very interested in the fact that whatever data actually exists on the coronavirus says it's mostly under control.
That's right: in spite of whatever paranoid hype you're hearing from the news media, whatever DATA actually exists says this disease is mostly under control. Go find out why the Chinese have acted so wierd, or whatever you want.
This disease *IS* scary. The Princess Diamond shows its ability to spread despite quarantine measures. And, admittedly contrary to my expectations, the 2-3% death rate is persisting. But more and more, it's isolated to Hubei Province, and to it's capital city, Wuhan.
For those who thought the Chinese had simply maxed out their number of quarantine beds, the number of people under quarantine is down to 135,000, from a peak of 190,000. (574,000 have been quarantined at some point!) The number of suspected cases is down to 5,248 from a peak of 29,000. No, there is no 700 million quarantines in China; the Chinese have restricted interstate travel, not quarantined half of their people.
FWIW, I have my OWN conspiracy theories about China. But I don't have DATA to support them. Let's just say the Youth-in-Asia might be interested in making sure that they outnumber the old folks.
CORRECTION:
“Number of REPORTED Active Coronavirus Cases Declines”
And only because of the decline in REPORTED active cases in China. It’s still exploding outside of China.
>> It’s still exploding outside of China. <<
New evidence of a crisis in Korea.... but no new cases outside Asia for several days.
True...quiet here (and Europe), but still growing big-time in Japan and Singapore.
“That’s right: in spite of whatever paranoid hype you’re hearing from the news media, whatever DATA actually exists says this disease is mostly under control. Go find out why the Chinese have acted so wierd, or whatever you want.”
The data coming out of China is demonstrably garbage.
Garbage In Garbage Out.
The Diamond Princess has not represented an effective quarantine. If anything, it’s been a perfect environment for a virus to flourish and move around.
There are currently 75,300 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,011 fatalities.
Hubei province
(includes Wuhan) 61,682 Cases ... 1,921 Deaths
1,115 Cases outside China (that includes Diamond Princess). 6 Deaths (1Philippines,1 france, 2 Hong Kong, 1 Taiwan, 1 Japan)
That’s my theory too (and only my theory, for now). The virus comes in waves - you think it’s dying off, then it hits a bit harder, then, again, you think it’s dying off, then it hits even harder - until it explodes, as in Wuhan.
If we see that pattern, it would help explain why the Chinese government thought they could ‘quietly’ contain the virus, until it was too late.
The Diamond Princess has not represented an effective quarantine. If anything, it’s been a perfect environment for a virus to flourish and move around.
...
A large group of people, mainly the crew, did not follow the rules for the quarantine.
BOOM
Guess China is running out of testing kits that give false negatives and local leaders do not want Beijing sending in the troops. Make no mistake, the actual numbers are likely very much higher inside, and outside, of China.
South Korea 51 Cases... 0 Deaths... 16 recovered
According to the data gathered by Johns Hopkins, the growth rate for confirmed cases is slowing. The best way to see this is to look at the chart in the lower right.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Yeah, it’s so strange that people are convinced that the death rates will soar above 2% once it overwhelms a locality’s infrastructure. As your statistics reveal, outside of Hubei, the death rate is 86 deaths among about 15,000 cases... a bad flu. We’re seeing in Hubei what happens when it overwhelms!
I really do wonder what the infection rate inside Hubei is, though.
True...quiet here (and Europe), but still growing big-time in Japan and Singapore.
...
Singapore has 89 confirmed cases and of those 29 have recovered.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Unfortunately, all we have to go on is what the Chinese gov’t is giving us.
For what it’s worth, from Wikipedia:
SARS virus (a few years ago) - 10% fatality rate
This new virus - 2% fatality rate
Most influenza (flu) - .2%
Spanish flu - 2%
Ebola virus - 25-90%
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