Posted on 02/18/2020 3:02:47 PM PST by Vermont Lt
Expert: Yes, clearly it's spreading like wildfire, but hey, 2-weeks is 2-weeks, so we are going to let everyone go.
This seems incredibly irresponsible. Is it any wonder Japan's efforts to contain this virus domestically are failing? Maybe they think more infections in the west will force us to work harder on vaccines and cures?
“Only good news is fatality rate is only around 2%.”
Based upon what reliable information do you make this claim?
I ask, because medical journals, who have studied this in detail report near 15% and even they report that there isn’t enough clear, or reliable data to be certain, but are determining what they conclude upon incomplete data from China (who is invested in deception).
Do you have medical, or epidemiologist expertise?
Yes, serious question.
Two passengers from the ship in japan, died? Hearing that but you see any print?
currently 75,727 confirmed cases worldwide, including 2,128 fatalities.
Hubei province
(includes Wuhan) 62,013 cases ... 2,029 Deaths total
1150 cases outside China...10 deaths total (1 Taiwan, 1 Japan, 1 Philippines, 2 Diamond Princes, 2 Hong Kong, 1 France, 2 Iran)
I recall reading that right here on FR.
I have not done a scientific evaluation of death stats from CVD.
See post 344. If those stats are right 2.8% death rate.
What I surmise is that cancer is lot more fatal than this virus.
Two Japanese passengers aboard the ill fated Diamond Princess have died from COVID19. Verified.
In this day and age of fearing biological warfare on a molecular level, perhaps a vaccine would be created to prevent any military exploration of such an Achilles heel.
Now what if said was made to spread a live culture to save the cost of mass inoculation? After all just a little cold never weakens the soul.
Now imagine Mother Nature's intervention with say a horse shoe bat and its own flavor of coronavirus?
Result? A very communicable hell.
That's my guess....lol
When calculating mortality, you can only use “resolved” patients, as the outcome of those still still sick is unknown. Illness is resolved by recovery or death. The current stats outside of Mainland China are:
Deaths 10
Recovered 176
10/(176+8)= 5.38%
This number of cases still too small of a number to form an accurate mortality, and “recovered” is poorly defined at best. The Iran deaths are likely outliers where the hospital had no idea what they were dealing with.
Look at Hubei, where the system has been overwhelmed, and things get a lot worse.
Deaths 2,029
Recovered 10,388
2029/(2029+10388) = 16.3% (assuming you accept the numbers from CCP)
In the end, as long as high quality medical care is available to those who require intensive care, we should see mortality rates go down. Anywhere the system is overwhelmed, as it is in Wuhan, it will be bad.
Sure, most cancers have a higher mortality rate. Cancer isn’t contagious. If one family member/co-worker/taxi driver/bus passenger/food server has cancer, no one else has to worry about being infected.
missed changing the 8 to a 10 in the “outside mainland China numbers...
Then your death rate is skewed because these are the cases that are (presumably) hospitalized. Not counted in your recovered to dead equation are all those with mild enough illness they were not hospitalized or diagnosed. Adding them in. would lower the death rate further
Not too long ago people were touting the 50/50 mortality to recovery as a 50% mortality rate. Seems like that idea has gone by the wayside. The correct question is how low will that number go as cases are finally resolved.
Yes, we can’t include cases we don’t know about. The same is true for any disease. Most people with the flu never go to the hospital. This factor is less significant for viruses like COVID-19, as it is contagious and dangerous enough that once several people around a “mild” case are hospitalized, significant efforts are made to track down the source.
It’s too early to assign precise numbers. In general, mortality will be low where good care is available, and higher where it is not.
Exactly.
What about those older folks who would have succumbed to the standard influenza and died anyway, but instead got infected with CVD and died? In good ole USA, 20 million or so come down with flu each season and many do not recover! If the same people die from CVD, why consider it as an addition casualty of CVD?
I don’t get all this what if and what about. I guess people who die from flu related pneumonia were old, frail and going to die anyway, so why count the old and frail at all? If that’s the case, the flu really doesn’t kill anyone at all. At this point, the best case mortality for COVID-19 seems to be about 2%, and even that is about 20x higher than influenza. So, those who “would have died of the flu anyway” are a very small fraction of that number.
This isn’t hard to understand:
-COVID-19 is more contagious than influenza.
-COVID-19 has a much higher mortality than influenza.
-If allowed to spread unchecked, it has the potential to become a pandemic.
None of that is doom and gloom. Stopping this thing from spreading is important. H1N1, just 10 years ago, infected a billion people, but fortunately had a mortality rate of just 0.02%. A 2% mortality would have killed 20 million people. Of course, it wouldn’t have actually killed that many, because massive steps would have been taken to control it if the mortality were 100x higher than it was. That is where we are now, trying to stop it or slow it down, because not doing anything could be really bad...
Not exactly my point. The frail and old die from flu in higher numbers than other adults. So if the same people die from Corona virus, it is basically no additional burden on the general population.
My impression by glancing at news items is CV is attacking the old and weak more than healthy adults.
I do not mean to undercut risks of CV. It probably is more contagious than standard flu. But the death stats look worse because CV is killing many of the same people who were going to die from standard flu.
To summarize what is the fatality rate from CV for adults between 18 & 65 who are healthy? That is the most critical stat.
I guess that's the frustrating part, not getting important data out of China. Wuhan's hospitals and government have failed so badly that I'm not sure their data is even meaningful. With infections ramping up in Singapore, SK and Japan, we will probably be getting better info, and we are a week or two behind them.
Yes, Japan, Singapore and S Korea may shed more light on voracity of CV.
On a side note, my daughter is on a 2 week vacation ending this coming Sunday visiting S. Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand. She is very healthy and I am not overly concerned.
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