Posted on 02/06/2020 6:00:40 AM PST by dangus
This is not how epidemics are supposed to spread. For a week in late January, more than half of newly reported Coronavirus infections were outside of Hubei (Wuhan's state). Now, fewer than one in five new cases are from Outside Hubei.
China took extremely drastic and apparently amazingly successful efforts to contain Coronavirus. So why do Chinese leaders act in apology and shame, like those dogs in YouTube videos? You can almost hear the scoldy housewife berating, "Did you do this Xi Jinping?" as his tail withers behind his legs, he circles around his doggy bed, and lifts his lip in a smile to show his teeth.
Several days ago, I noted on Free Republic that the rate of the spread of new infections was in decline; it was no longer exponential. The percentage growth in new cases had been between 30 and 69 per day, and it had dropped into a the low 20s. Yesterday, there were FEWER over cases than the day before, but I wouldn't read too much into a single day's data.
More interestingly is the spread outside Hubei: There were fewer new cases outside Hubei than there were a week ago. And then there's this: while in Hubei, the death rate is staggeringly high (over 3%), outside Hubei, only 14 people have died of it. (About 15,000 people have died of the flu this year in the U.S. alone.)
How could this be? This was hailed as the most contagious disease ever reported? And it emerged at the crossroads of the most populous empire ever, at the heat of a region containing most of the world's population, at the peak of the travel season. And yet, outside Hubei, there have been very few human-to-human transmissions at all. Remember that world-reknowned researcher who claimed he caught it in his eye?
So to recap the clues:
The Chinese have taken quick, and drastic measures to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus.
The spread of Coronavirus has impossibly slowed outside of Hubei, with a week of data confirming the trend.
Despite these efforts, the Chinese have been acting as if their poor response is an existential threat to their control.
The virus, outside of Hubei, seems not so insanely contagious or deadly as inside Hubei.
The solution: The Chinese have been open about Coronavirus, since it began to spread out from Hubei. But it was far worse within Hubei than they were willing to admit, so they took absolutely drastic measures to bury their mistakes. They had failed to recognize that Coronavirus wasn't a mere flu until thousands were sick. Within Hubei, they admitted only the worst cases were Coronavirus, allowing the resultant misleading statistics to make the virus look so deadly, and so easily spread.
So the good news: We're not all going to die of Coronavirus.
The bad news: China just learned it could respond to a biological attack in a way that America never could.
-mark-
https://www.263chat.com/govt-sheds-more-light-on-coronavirus-monitoring/
Zimbabwe monitoring 700 potential exposures.
Africa will not be able to deal with this virus. Careful.
Taiwan bans cruise ships port calls on Wuhan coronavirus fears
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202002060012
Wondering if you posted this in vanity...
Is your background epidemiology or infectious disease control?
With all due respect, you provided no sourcing—no links...
How are we to determine if your analysis is correct?
Hmmm... Starting on Jan 27, that is exactly what an exponential increase looks like. Last data point is not yet fully tallied and should not be considered. If your point is that the exponent (Semi-log slope) changed around Jan 27, maybe so. But as far a I can see, this thing is going to 100,000 and higher.
(Prior to Jan 27, I suspect data recording and small sample size creates the variation in the slope.)
Nonetheless, we will know the answer when it is all over.
I would be interested in the source of your data.
Do you have a link?
Thanks.
“Africa will not be able to deal with this virus. Careful”
Major disease, famine, genocides, HIV, CW’s, lack of health care and sanitation and yet Africa is still reported to double their population in the next 50 years.
Those folks breed like roaches.
One of the smartest guys on the Trump team. A digital mastermind. Glad he's on our side...
Thanks.
“Africa will not be able to deal with this virus”
Everything I have read it is a wintertime virus favoring cold air. Hot, dry climates are fairly immune to it.
Look at all the cases -they are above the equator except for Australia which has a huge Chinese population which are the people whom have it there.
This guy is wrong, it’s not getting better
...
I think OP made it clear that the good news is about containment.
Time will be the only true expose of the reality concerning this novel cornavirus.
Quarantines, stoppages of migrations and hygiene measures are the reasons for the lack of outbreak outside of China. The situation could change for the worst at any time.
What are you reading? Can you show me your sources?
Because they have been climbing by the thousands in Hubei. Are you taking into consideration the available beds?
Not looking to get into a pissing contest. I am using the BNO numbers. We are probably looking at different sources.
Any event, I think we have way too many limiting factors—the least of which is the CCP.
We shall see.
All numbers based on trustworthy CCP numbers - we all know the Chinese would never deliberately lie, right?
You are right. it does however accurately reflect the number of quarantined Chinese cities crematoriums in use.
I do not get where you are getting your data but this virus is still growing very steadily and that is assuming the official numbers coming out of China are not a lying, which there are very many sources saying that they are lying.
Bingo. Took a break for a while from Freerepublic to follow Trump on Twitter. What bothers me when I come back are the propaganda account inserts I think I see now when I come back.
This isn’t 1950.
China is pretty concerned they can’t keep the lid on at home.
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