With Jussie Smollett, you have his two accomplices confirming it was a hoax, and is considered a true smoking gun. Had they never flipped we would have had no confirmation, only suspicions.
Here we have evidence that strongly points to a hoax, but we lack any confirmation. What we perceive to be smoking guns, may not be what they appear to be. Again, because we have no confirmation that proves he actually concocted and carried out an act with the intention to deceive. So no, it is not a smoking gun, but it does give rise to the possibility of a hoax. So far all we have are strong suspicions, only. No smoking guns.
He took a staged picture and didn’t reveal it was staged until caught.
That’s a hoax. Full stop.
The only open question is how much of the rest is also hoax, which I presume to be 100% and you are giving 50/50 odds on.
But the existence of *a* hoax here is undeniable.
His parents house is in, oh, lets say Fairfax Station, Virginia. Why and how would the bad guy track Sakran to his parents' house to place the paper? How did he know Sakran was going to be there? Did he follow him to his parents' house? Did he carry the paper around waiting for a chance to place it on the car?
Wouldn't it be easier just to mail it to him? Not that hard to get away with it.
Also, the 17th, 18th, 19th, and 20th that weekend had numerous periods of winds in the 25 to 40 mi/h range. (wunderground.com weather site history at Dulles airport, about 15 miles away). Also there were periods of rain, but not every day the whole weekend. The last time it rained was about 5 am on Sunday the 19th.
With the weekend and Monday being windy, I would expect the paper would be wrinkled much more than it showed in the pictures. If it were placed earlier, it should show evidence of being wet at some time.
Update. His story has changed again, and the changed story is already exposed as another lie.
https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1221941887914786816