Coronavirus outbreak live thread

freepers

[LadyDoc]

if you don’t have a facemask, use a bra or a diaper or a regular cloth.

Here in the Philippines, the ash was terrible, so they quickly ran out of heavy facemasks so had to improvise.

https://www.philstar.com/lifestyle/health-and-family/2020/01/14/1984778/list-doh-approved-face-mask-alternatives

[Mr. Jeeves]

Just now China appears to have shut down most or all of its international Internet access. They can’t tolerate any further evidence like this leaking out to Twitter.

[LilFarmer]

At least more honest reporting. The Chinese government has always downplayed the severity of viruses coming out of their region. As for better healthcare, In a pandemic, the west will fare better in the early stages. But if the facilities are overwhelmed (supplies/beds/personnel run out) I guess people will have to do they best they can on their own. If we are to believe some of the nurse reports trickling out of Wuhan, that is what is happening there now.

[hardspunned]

The Spanish Flu traveled the sea lanes, this one is jet age.

[PA Engineer]

I’m currently humoring its insults.

I’d love to know how many program posters there are on FR and from whence their IP’s originate...

You have greater patience than I. I think this is a case of FR ozone from heaven.

[ifinnegan]

“Who posted that? I did not see a post like that, at least on this thread”

I didn’t name any names because I didn’t want to embarrass anybody.

Read for yourself.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3810897/posts?page=9#9

[ifinnegan]

It’s a serious issue. Especially when it’s a newly observed pathogen. It should be closely monitored.

It’s not though without precedent as its a variant of SARS and MERS so it’s known that those deadly viruses did not cause any major epidemic or catastrophic death tolls.

One reason, interestingly, that this one, called WARS by some, is considered potentially worse in terms of spread is it’s not as severe or deadly as SARS.

[grey_whiskers]

“WARS” == “wild-assed” respiratory syndrome, named after the wide range of predictions for virulence? ;-)

[ifinnegan]

“100 Million infected by Feb, that is an extreme prediction. I wonder how fast the Spanish flu spread in 2018.”

I don’t know how fast it spread.

It’s not 1918 and Corona viruses aren’t influenza, so the dynamic is different.

[grey_whiskers]

Just now China appears to have shut down most or all of its international Internet access. They can’t tolerate any further evidence like this leaking out to Twitter.

DAFUQ.

Can you name any sites which would allow me to test that?

I don't doubt you, but I want to get a feel or gauge for the scope. The more crackdown on Twatter, Faecesbook, "mom and pop" and individual accounts, and the more "stirring patriotic music" on the official sites that ARE still allowed, the worse it is.

Might be time to go to Home Depot and buy out their supply of masks, and load up on vegetables. I have enough vitamins and Whey protein powder and olive oil to fend off starvation...

[Grimmy]

It’s not 1918 and Corona viruses aren’t influenza, so the dynamic is different.

*******

in 1918, there wasn’t single day pan-global transportation of large numbers of people on a regular basis.

Spread that took months or years back then can happen in a single day now.

[Black Agnes]

It’s kind of interesting that the country that makes a huge portion of meds/med supplies for the rest of the world is the first country to basically shut down the supply chain.

No interprovince passenger travel is allowed right now either.

[Black Agnes]

It’s called extrapolation.

Remember algebra 1?

Or earlier?

The poster CLEARLY qualified that statement with ‘at that rate...’.

Did you miss those three words?

[justa-hairyape]

The fact of the matter - this is absolute worse case scenario for spread. The tight controls on communication in this totalitarian regime allowed the quickly spreading virus to gain a foot hold. If a government has any duty at all, it is to give honest information to its citizens so that they can properly prepare. Preventing communication is preventing honesty.

[CodeToad]

“100 Million infected by Feb, that is an extreme prediction. I wonder how fast the Spanish flu spread in 2018.”

Predicted by people who are terrible at math and are even worse with science.

[grey_whiskers]

These are less than a day old.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220968356314042369

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Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.

9 replies49 retweets88 likes

Reply 9 Retweet 49 Like 88

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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding

‏

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220950012059881474

@DrEricDing

15h15 hours ago

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14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks

[Mr. Jeeves]

I can still see Chinese sites - but e-mails to Chinese recipients are suddenly not going through and we don't know what, if any, international sites they are being allowed to see. The Great Firewall did not block most international sites before - maybe it does, now.

I don't know if it is a complete lockdown or just an attempt to screen out the transmission of video content from inside the quarantine zone to Western sites. I'm sure we will hear more in a few hours.

[Chickensoup]

thank you

[grey_whiskers]

See my post #756 this thread for more on transmission rates. The source is an MD or PhD who spent 15 years teaching at Harvard's School of Public Health, so not necessarily a wild-eyed quack, even if maybe a Swamp member...

[justa-hairyape]

The Chicoms had the world by the gonads. Everything was theirs for the taking. But the deal they made with the devil, has unpredictable consequences. They always do.