“100 Million infected by Feb, that is an extreme prediction. I wonder how fast the Spanish flu spread in 2018.”
I don’t know how fast it spread.
It’s not 1918 and Corona viruses aren’t influenza, so the dynamic is different.
Its not 1918 and Corona viruses arent influenza, so the dynamic is different.
*******
in 1918, there wasn’t single day pan-global transportation of large numbers of people on a regular basis.
Spread that took months or years back then can happen in a single day now.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220968356314042369
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Small note: While there were reports of SARS having 0.49 after containment started, a WHO cited experts who said SARS had initial R0 of 2.9 then 2.0-3.5, which which fell to 0.4 after quarantine. But SARS is more symptomatic than this Wuhan virus. To be updated.
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Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220950012059881474
@DrEricDing
15h15 hours ago
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14/ Lets pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (theres unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this viruss R0=2.5, thats still 2x higher than seasonal flus 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks