Posted on 04/22/2019 3:20:37 AM PDT by IBD editorial writer
At the start of the year, economists predicted an economic slump ahead. President Trump’s already low approval ratings were plunging. The Mueller report would threaten his presidency. And Democrats, we were told, would be driving the agenda for the next two years over a crippled presidency.
It’s four months later and, if anything, the opposite has occurred on every front. The economy appears to be gaining strength. Trump’s approval rating is rising. The Mueller report was a dud. And House Democrats are fighting among themselves.
On the economy, the consensus earlier in the year was for the GDP to barely eke out a gain in the first quarter.
In January, the average growth estimate by economists surveyed by Wall Street Journal was a mere 1.8%. At the time, the Journal quoted Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, saying “the straws on the camel’s back are really piling up and the back’s beginning to bend.”
In February, the National Association of Realtors forecast Q1 growth at just 1.3%.
In March, Reuters reported that “The economy is losing speed as the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending fades.”
Now, days before the government releases its first growth estimate for Q1, the mood has suddenly turned around. Bloomberg on Saturday reported that “The U.S. economy is set to show fresh signs of stabilizing and indeed even strengthening after its recent soft patch. Wall Street estimates are creeping higher with the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg pointing to a 2.2 % advance.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 is currently at 2.8%. A month ago, it was below 1%.
(Excerpt) Read more at issuesinsights.com ...
Remember the good old days where economic news was trumpeted from sea to signing sea every quarter, then quietly revised down later? The word “unexpected” seems to have reversed meaning too.
“Unexpected” was a running joke on FR for eight years.
ff
How do you ‘obstruct justice’ when there is no crime?
Better yet- WHY would you ‘obstruct’ the guy who is proving you didn’t commit a crime?
“unexpected” was actually an FR joke for longer than that. During the Bush years, unexpected meant good news and reports were quietly revised up...always up
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Oh, let’s not get hung up on technicalities.
President Trump must have obstructed *something*. I heard that he used bad language in front of the Mule Team.
Lock him up!
That’s the term we used in almost every company I worked for from behemoths to tiny startups.
It still is. 'Unexpected' is the persistent hugh and series.
Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 Is very common in the business world. Been using it for 20+ years.
No, Q1 is a correct and commonly used abbreviation for Quarter 1.
I am reminded how, when the economy was barely limping along under Obama, we kept hearing about “green shoots” which indicated that the economy was about to surge. These economists are not into analyzing the economy, they are trying to influence it with their prognostications. Since Orange Man Bad, they are talking it down. It’s a good thing reality does not care about prognosticators.
"I see de qualtity dat goes intuh dem."
ff
Spot on!
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