Posted on 01/10/2019 12:01:30 PM PST by SeekAndFind
The U.S. economy may be in the middle of one of the longest recoveries ever, but Alan Greenspan tells Barrons that the economy doesnt look so greatand could well get worse.
The challenges that Greenspan sees are familiar ones, such as the ballooning deficit and the rising costs of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. But the former Federal Reserve chairman says theres an urgency in tackling these problems as inflation looms, populism spreads, and Chinas economic might increases.
Greenspan, now 92, presided over a period of economic prosperity from 1987 to 2006 that earned him rock-star-like devotion by investors, politicians, and even other central bankers; they hung on his often-inscrutable comments about the economy and monetary policy. The financial crisis, however, cast a more critical light on Greenspans tenure of low interest rates and his faith in the markets ability to self-regulate.
Now, a decade later, Greenspan has co-authored Capitalism in America with Adrian Wooldridge, an editor at the Economist. The new book traces U.S. economic history since colonial times to see what has helped the U.S. stand apart, and shed light on why its leadership is in jeopardy today.
(SNIP)
(Excerpt) Read more at barrons.com ...
Take a look at what Sweden did in the late 1990s. They were way ahead of us in terms of being behind the curve. And since its a socialist state, they were also [in worse shape] than us. They finally ran into a huge crisis; mortgage rates went to 500% for a short period, and the whole system was coming apart at the seams. A new government came in, and Sweden revamped its whole system from a defined-benefits program to a defined-contribution program, like a 401(k), which by definition is self-financing. Now, Sweden has a productivity growth rate of 1.3% annualized over the past five yearsnot great, but better [than many other countries.] We need to change the structure of all the various social programs that have a trust fund to them and go to a defined contribution rather than defined benefit.
Does our system need to come apart at the seams for action?
Of course! Thats what the danger is. You dont see these crises arising until its at your doorstep.
Sweden is a tiny country with a very different political system. How can its changes work here?
If you want to argue that Sweden can act faster than we can, I have no idea if that will be the case because Sweden behaves in a somewhat more rational way than we do most of the time. But that is a valid concern. Truth of matter is that the numbers will be whatever they are. Remember how I told you about the actuaries saying Social Security needed a 25% cut? The way they publicly handle the benefit calculation currently is that they say the trust fund wont run out for another X yearsas though that is saying its terrific! It aint. The reason the true actuarial balance isnt demonstrated is because its politically incorrect to do so. But they are basically saying, We dont have the capability of maintaining the defined-benefit system.
Why didn’t he bring up his concerns during Obama’s reign?
[Why didnt he bring up his concerns during Obamas reign?]
We know why, don’t we?
Because Alan Greenspan is, in reality, an Andrea-Mitchell-Democrat.
GW was always promoting the idea of a 401k-type of SS retirement, and could never get anyone to listen. So yes, the system would have to collapse for it go get fixed, I think.
Unless Trump takes it on. He is the only one I know with the backbone to push it through. To do it, though, he needs a second term.
All they are discovering is that savings in an interest bearing account accrues a lot over enough time.
Forcing people to save a la Singapore leads to net equity, not a debt owed by a new generation.
Woopee. Sweden is not a model for anything except disasters caused by the idiots who refer to themselves as “the state”.
Alan is 92 and married to one of the biggest idiots in Media. These 2 things may be taking thier toll.
Yup. Mr. Andrea Mitchell.
Says the architect of the 2006-08 housing crisis and the wizard of the Y2K liquidity pump and dump.
RE: Why didnt he bring up his concerns during Obamas reign?
Heck, he had 19 years to bring this up. From Reagan to Papa Bush to Clinton to GW Bush. And yeah, he could have brought this up AFTER he left office when Obama was elected. He had to wait till now.
“GW was always promoting the idea of a 401k-type of SS retirement, and could never get anyone to listen”
Because it was going to be an investment account and HORRORS the Evil Wolves of Wall Street would get a cut.
And the drones at the Social Security Administration would no longer have any demand for their “services”.
The index parameter that all President’s and Congressmen should be judged by is the average equity per citizen. If the State is like any other corporation, and the citizen’s its shareholders, that’s what the metric should be.
Only Don Trump would measure up.
Sweden also has school choice
oh Lord. please rid us of this abominable bank. we need another great one like Andy Jackson.
almost two decades he was top dog.. which made Andrea the Head Bi.. uhhhh Pooch..
How well they did during that run indeed.. many others , not so.. but hey, what’s a little rewrite of history, huh?
Sweden does not exist anymore. They are just waiting for of their graves to be dug so they can lay down and be beheaded or shot if they are lucky and don’t cause trouble for their Muslim masters, so anyone who says Sweden got ANYTHING right is a fool.
Alan, shut up and go home to Andrea Mitchell.
Greenspan and Ginsberg sitting in a tree kis——oh fugetaboutit.
But here she is being fed fake questions for Hillary by her staff. No snark or bitchy look. She likes it!
The stock market is based on profits.
Profits are an important but minor part of the economy.
Even if all future profits were available at a sound price, they wouldn’t support the Social Security age group in retirement.
Even when people typically collected Social Security for only a few years and stocks were sounder, it was recognized the stock market was fit only for the icing on the retirement cake.
[Sweden does not exist anymore.]
True, apparently.
“Medicare”
Key is to make hospital costs 25% less.
This can be done by eliminating the EMTALA, converting hospitals into real estate investments trusts leasing space at commercial rates ($15-$30/sq.ft./year) and not $4,000/hour/operating room.
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