Posted on 12/24/2018 10:00:03 AM PST by blam
You could hear and feel the collective gasp from Alabama football fans across the country when Tua hobbled off the field in the SEC Championship. Going into the Orange Bowl, the game plan of a non-Tua led offense will not necessarily change.
There are really only two scenarios in which Tua doesn’t see the field: he is ruled out from the start or gets hurt during the game. As shown from the SEC Championship game, the growth and development of Jalen Hurts were put on full display and ultimately led to the comeback to keep the undefeated season alive. For Alabama football to advance to the National Championship without Tagovailoa it will take two keys: Running to victory and a Defensive stand.
Alabama Football Running To Victory
If Tua Tagovailoa cannot play during the Orange Bowl due to his injured ankle then the wheels will be in motion to test Oklahoma’s ability to not only stop Alabama’s rushing attack. Plus, OU also stopping Jalen Hurts improved ability to throw the football.
I believe Alabama would open the offense up with a lot of high percentage throws for Jalen to develop into a rhythm. Passes such as screens and hot routes to the backs in the flats.
The goal being, not only rhythm for Jalen but also to test the edges of the Oklahoma defense.
Oklahoma’s defense has been consistently burned not only in the secondary but also against the run. The Sooner defense currently ranks 53rd in the country surrendering an average of 156.7 yards per game. Which is deceiving in the rankings because the passing defense ranks 128th in the country allowing 291.4 yards per game.
Combining these numbers leads to Oklahoma’s total defense being ranked 108th in the country allowing 6.03 yards a play and 448.1 yards a game to its opponents.
Even with these poor numbers, the Sooners defense has been saved by its offense which ranks 1st in the Nation in total offense.
So it is imperative for a Jalen Hurts offense to control the clock. In order to limit the offense production of which the Sooners are capable. Doing that requires the Tide to succeed in running the football.
Alabama Football Defensive Stand
The offensive production the Sooners have been able to produce this season is staggering. To believe that Alabama will shut out the Sooners is nearly unfathomable.
Which leads to a question. Without Tagovailoa, how many points can Alabama football surrender and still secure victory?
I believe that Alabama can surrender no more than 30 points without Tagovailoa under center.
Do I believe that Jalen Hurts is capable of scoring 50 points? Yes.
However, I don’t know if Jalen Hurts is capable of producing the quick strikes that Tagovailoa has shown over the course of the season.
I think Jalen is more than capable of scoring on each and every possession against the struggling Sooners defense. But it will be time-consuming drives of greater than 4-5 minutes.
I think a reasonable final score for victory under Hurts would be something like 35-28.
It will take a tremendous effort from the Alabama defense to shut down Kyler Murray regardless of who is under center for Alabama.
However, I believe more pressure falls upon the defense’s shoulders if Tagovailoa is unable to play during the game.
Conclusion
Jalen Hurts showed in the SEC Championship game that he has greatly improved as a passer. He led two touchdown drives against a Georgia defense that is far superior to Oklahoma’s defense.
However, in the Orange Bowl, each score can be matched by the high flying Sooners offense.
If Tua is injured, it will take a consistent rushing effort from the Tide’s offense combined with a tremendous effort from the Tide’s defense to advance to the National Championship.
Jalen Hurts will come in an perform admirably
Bama will still beat ou
And Bama Clemson finale will be a good one
That’s what, and I’m stickin to it
BTW I have no dog in this fight. Just want to see some memorable games, regardless who wins. Yes, even ND
Backup qb. Game might be closer.
I don’t think there is much difference between the two.
I bet even the third string QB is excellent. The main difference would probably be that he has not had the experience.
OUs bad defense gave the ball back to their offense quickly (by giving up points quickly. I suspect the tide’s defense is going to cause a few OU possessions to come up empty.
Alabama v Georgia was a truly great game and broadcast.
ESPN harbors hate for the very successful and Alabama and Saban are far too successful for many anti-football scribes. If I were him I’d win the national title this year and bail while he’s on top.
Put it this way, If Tia get’s hurt, Alabama can recover, Murray, not a chance. Injuries will be huge for OU because of their lack of depth this year.
Quite an exaggeration since they were only down by 7 and only half a quarter left in the game.
Tua played 3 1/2 quarters and scored 21 points on the severely sprained ankle. He deserves the start but they will likely give it to Hurts since it may be his last game at Alabama
Tua will lead Bama to a three score plus victory. Jalen will give them a two score margin. That’s the diff.
Paul Tyson vs Tualia Tagovailoa. Bear Bryant's great-grand son vs's Tua's little brother.
More importantly, how much does Saban get paid to place the bottle of coke on the podium at his post game press conferences?
I am left wondering how Georgia would have done against either Clemson of Oklahoma. I would believe those to be close games. My ONLY concern for Dec 29th is Alabama’s secondary. Safeties will be tasked with spying Murray AND defending the bombs.
Bear Bryant used to use crummy potato chips as his prop. Nothing new there.
Glad to see a thread of Alabama fans and people who respect the Tide. Oklahoma has a fine team and we wish them well. I believe Jalen can more than do the job if called upon.
We’ll have to see about that. SEC defense is a bit overrated.
We’ll have to see about that. SEC defense is a bit overrated.
Given your screen name, that qualified for an LOL
The Big 12 as a whole reminds me of the San Diego Chargers under Fouts, which Sports Illustrated in a pre-season issue compared to the Death Star with an undermanned security detail in the command centre—offensive fire power that can destroy planets, and a defence that can’t stop someone with a BB gun.
The problem is when an entire conference plays that way it becomes more difficult to evaluate how much is due to good offence, and how much is due to bad D.
If the Tide played in the Big 12, who knows what their offensive numbers would look like.
I like good D,. Roll Tide
Vegas odds says Saban cries. I've got five on it.
Bear Bryant used to use crummy potato chips as his prop. Nothing new there.
There’s a lot of people in Alabama that might disagree with you about Golden Flake being a ‘crummy’ potato chip.
An Alabama staple.
Oh yes, we will. Cannot wait in fact.
Likewise with the Bulldogs and the Longhorns.
...then he’ll only get a grapefruit.
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