[NOAA] Winter Outlook favors warmer temperatures for much of U.S. [of-course]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ^ | October 18, 2018 | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[daniel1212]

A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”

Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.

Temperature

Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.

The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures .

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures. [blod emphasis mine]

[daniel1212]

And no, I don’t believe in significant anthropomorphic-caused global warming.

My own skepticism of which, and rejection of Climate Change "religion" is what my posts reflect.

[usconservative]

Most of Iowa has had near record-low average temps for November, along with being dryer than normal.

Same here in the People's Socialist Republic of Illinois ... and December is starting out much the same.

[NELSON111]

And when it’s warming than normal in the PNW, that’s usually the indicator that there is ridging in place that will pull the cold air down and send the rest of the country below normal, which is what has happened in November. We will see if it continues. Many on this thread are forgetting that patterns flip on a dime. Just because one month is cold doesn’t mean it stays cold. December could be mild and then it flips, which is what happens in many winters. It’s rare things stay “cold.”