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Share Tweet Here we are at the 11th hour. We have seen a substantial amount of data from early and absentee voting, virtually all of it quite good for the Rs but none of it a “knockout” blow where we can absolutely “call” many races. Nationally, Rasmussen today had Donald Trump at 51% approval and the Republicans with a 1 point lead in the generic race. (That’s nice, but never in my life have I voted for Mike or Suzy Generic). One of the untold stories so far is how the fake news media ignores early and absentee voting, which has taken on a life of its own in many key states. In Florida, the state government and both parties have been pushing early voting for years. In Arizona, fully 80% of the voting public will have cast a ballot by election day! Yet the fake news media polls and polls, as if nothing has happened. Well, a great deal has happened. AZ: Republicans hold a lead of over 116,000 coming out of early voting. This is more than substantial, and according to pollster Richard Baris, Krysten Sinema (D) would need more than 72% of independents just to pull even. This one, I think, is in the bag for Martha McSally and Baris thinks she could win by even more than 4 points. Latest: Craigslist Ad Offers To PAY Dems To Attend Obama-Abrams Rally in Georgia CA: With 14 Republican House seats at risk, absentee voting is showing that all but two of them appear safe, including Dana Rohrabacher. Right now, the only concerns are John Denham and Diane Harkey, although both have solid absentee leads. If they break near even with their indies, both will hold as well. John Cox looks to fall about 5 points short in his quest for the governor’s race, but he has performed a magnificent service by mobilizing otherwise moribund CA Republicans to get out and vote for the House members. If they all win, they owe him a bottle of wine. FL: This is the race most people are watching because it has all the elements: a tight governor’s race between a black socialist and a white Trumper, a senate race between a popular governor and a fading Democrat, and several key house races, most notably FL26 and 27. However Charlie Crist (D) is not performing well with his base (indies) and is now a shining opportunity for a D-R flip in Florida. Scott continues to lead narrowly and appears to be turning out the Trump voters, but Rick DeSantis has not made the sale. I’m hearing there is a great deal of ballot splitting and that Andrew Gillum may narrowly win based on a heavy number of white women virtue signalling. Right now, the guess is Republicans would lose FL26 but hold 27. If Republicans hold both and pick up FL15, watch out. It could be a bloodbath for Democrats across the country.

That is a good section - hope we hold both AND pick up FL15 :-)

Here we are at the 11th hour. We have seen a substantial amount of data from early and absentee voting, virtually all of it quite good for the Rs but none of it a “knockout” blow where we can absolutely “call” many races. Nationally, Rasmussen today had Donald Trump at 51% approval and the Republicans with a 1 point lead in the generic race.

(That’s nice, but never in my life have I voted for Mike or Suzy Generic).

One of the untold stories so far is how the fake news media ignores early and absentee voting, which has taken on a life of its own in many key states. In Florida, the state government and both parties have been pushing early voting for years. In Arizona, fully 80% of the voting public will have cast a ballot by election day! Yet the fake news media polls and polls, as if nothing has happened. Well, a great deal has happened.

AZ: Republicans hold a lead of over 116,000 coming out of early voting. This is more than substantial, and according to pollster Richard Baris, Krysten Sinema (D) would need more than 72% of independents just to pull even. This one, I think, is in the bag for Martha McSally and Baris thinks she could win by even more than 4 points.

Latest: Craigslist Ad Offers To PAY Dems To Attend Obama-Abrams Rally in Georgia

CA: With 14 Republican House seats at risk, absentee voting is showing that all but two of them appear safe, including Dana Rohrabacher. Right now, the only concerns are John Denham and Diane Harkey, although both have solid absentee leads. If they break near even with their indies, both will hold as well. John Cox looks to fall about 5 points short in his quest for the governor’s race, but he has performed a magnificent service by mobilizing otherwise moribund CA Republicans to get out and vote for the House members. If they all win, they owe him a bottle of wine.

FL: This is the race most people are watching because it has all the elements: a tight governor’s race between a black socialist and a white Trumper, a senate race between a popular governor and a fading Democrat, and several key house races, most notably FL26 and 27. However Charlie Crist (D) is not performing well with his base (indies) and is now a shining opportunity for a D-R flip in Florida.

Scott continues to lead narrowly and appears to be turning out the Trump voters, but Rick DeSantis has not made the sale. I’m hearing there is a great deal of ballot splitting and that Andrew Gillum may narrowly win based on a heavy number of white women virtue signalling.

Right now, the guess is Republicans would lose FL26 but hold 27. If Republicans hold both and pick up FL15, watch out. It could be a bloodbath for Democrats across the country.