Posted on 07/24/2018 5:13:34 AM PDT by SMGFan
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato says Democrats for the first time are the favorites to retake control of the House in this year's midterm elections. Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the university's Center for Politics, said Tuesday that Democrats are now "soft favorites" for control of the chamber.
"[F]or most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP," he wrote.
The analysis comes as Sabato shifted 17 House races in favor of Democrats, with several vulnerable Republicans including Rep. Pete Roskam (R-Ill.) seeing their races move from "likely Republican" to "toss-up" in the ratings.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Chelsea Clinton will be elected to the US Senate by the State of New Jersey in 2018.
Yeah... I know... Hear me out...
In October, it will be clear the Robert Menendez is going down to defeat. The Democrats cannot afford to lose this seat, so they will perform another Torricelli Switch after the ballot deadline.
They will need a big name, with instant name recognition, to run in the short campaign. Senator Lautenberg is dead and no longer available (as opposed to last time when he was dead AND available). So what other name is there on the Democrat side bigger than Clinton?
Hillary does not want to go back to the Senate and Bill is... Bill, so the job will fall to Chelsea.
There will be a week of lawsuits and hooting and hollering, but the NJ Supremos will step in and settle the matter with about two weeks to go. In a short campaign Democrats will step all over themselves to rush to the polls and cast a ballot for somebody named “Clinton”.
Chelsea will run on a centrist Democrat “Third Way” platform, and there will be no stopping her.
Take it to the bank!
The general trend of special elections has not been promising.
I tend to disregard Sabato
***************
Liberal guy from a liberal school. A man with an agenda.
Political anal lust Larry Sabato....
Short & sweet....Larry Sabato is going to have egg all over his face on the evening of November 6, 2018. Just remember folks, before the 2016 POTUS election, Larry Sabato was the “King of the Hill” with his political crystal ball predictions. However, after the election he has practically disappeared from TV view. Sad...to say the poor fellow has it all wrong once again.
His saving grace, however, is that his fellow cohorts in the political prediction business are as foolish and off base as he is.
Republicans - Will pickup 6-12 Senate seats.
Republicans - will pickup 12-20 House seats
A monkey could have figured that out. The number of seats gained by Republicans, however, was grossly underestimated in 2010 and 2014.
Would be disastrous for the President, if true.
Maybe not disastrous but certainly "suboptimal".The Rats would clearly impeach him...and they'd draw the thing out for months and months.
And the usual suspects (Clinton News Network,MSLSD,etc) would go wall-to-wall with the House proceedings.Of course they wouldn't touch the Senate trial because they'd know that it would mean failure of the plot.
Pennsylvania is the killer
Umm no.....
Only ¡YEB! can defeat Hillary. Donald Trump will never become the Republican nominee.
He also under estimated the gains in 2010 and 2014. He always seems to make the mistake of over estimating Dem performance.
Sounds like John Cornyn kind of Republicans among the reluctant
If Sabato said it was going to rain tmw,. I would buy some sun blocker.
I disagree with Sabado's analysis, but FReepers are foolish to dismiss it entirely. FR tends to be an echo chamber. Plenty here - me, included - thought that Romney was a shoo-in back in 2012, because who could possibly support Obama?
It's also awfully early. The Dem hysteria right now is good for Conservatives, but most voters won't start really paying attention until October. About the only thing all the current hysteria and foolishness might accomplish is to turn people off so that they tune out early.
FWIW and subject to change....personally, I think that Repubs maintain a lead in the house, though it tightens. I think that they extend their lead in the Senate. The Senate, however, worries me in 2020..we'll see. Right now, Trump 2020 looks pretty good. People generally vote their wallets, and will attribute their expanded 401k's to him.
But if November is a long way away, then 2020 might as well be a lifetime.
Not going happen.
It IS awfully early. I’m not a pollster but I am involved in predictions, and you would not believe the pressure people are under to make their final predictions early, and be right, and never change their mind. That’s the gold standard, but of course taken to extremes it’s just stupid. Weather forecasters don’t tell you whether it’s going to rain on a Wednesday six months from now. But clients will demand that you say what’s going to happen even though it’s dumb because who knows what events might transpire to change that.
Sabato is a full of crap DNC stooge.
If you actually look at Sabato’s website, he still shows Rs ahead of Ds 200-199 (safe/leaning/tilt) with 36 tossups.
All of the Pundit websites STILL show Rs ahead.
Sabato may be right, but the analysis doesn’t support that yet.
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