Posted on 02/20/2018 6:43:02 AM PST by ShadowAce
In our recent conversation with David Schatsky, managing director at Deloitte, he indicated that 2018 is the year AI talk will turn into action. For CIOs who are still early in their talks or who havent even had the conversation yet this could bring up some key questions. Like, how do my plans stack up to others in my industry? What are the early adopters seeing? And what does this mean for jobs?
We examined some recent numbers and stats that help explain the current state of AI and some key predictions around where its heading in the future.
50 percent: IDC predicts a 50.1 percent compound annual growth rate for global spending on AI, reaching $57.6 billion by the year 2021. The report points out that investments from the retail, banking, healthcare, discrete and process manufacturing industries will represent over half of worldwide spend on AI.
$7.3 billion: Drilling down, on the retail front, global spending on artificial intelligence will grow to $7.3 billion per year by 2022, up from an estimated $2 billion in 2018, according to a study from Juniper Research. According to the research, retailers will heavily invest in AI tools that allow them to differentiate and improve the services they offer customers. These range from automated marketing platforms that generate tailored, timely offers, to chatbots that provide instant customer service.
1/3 shoppers: Theres a good reason for this influx of investment consumers like AI. A new study from PointSource found that when artificial intelligence is deployed tactically, one-third of shoppers (34 percent) will spend more money online. Nearly half (49 percent) said they are willing to shop more frequently when AI is present.
61 percent: This AI optimism is not limited to the retail industry alone. According to a recent survey from Arm, theres generally more hope than fear around a future with increased automation and AI. In fact, 61 percent said they think AI will make the world a better place.
47 percent: Theres also a lot of trust. The same survey from Arm asked if respondents would rather go to a human doctor or an AI doctor 47 percent chose the robot doc. As the next stat shows, money is following this trend.
$6.6 billion: The AI healthcare market is on track to hit $6.6 billion by 2021, according to Accenture data. The research notes, according to Accenture analysis, when combined, key clinical health AI applications can potentially create $150 billion in annual savings for the US healthcare economy by 2026.
4 percent: While these stats are exciting, its still early days for most CIOs. Gartners 2018 CIO Agenda Survey found that just four percent of CIOs have already implemented AI in the corporate realm. However, 46 percent plan to do so in the near future.
According to Whit Andrews, research vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner, "Despite huge levels of interest in AI technologies, current implementations remain at quite low levels. However, there is potential for strong growth as CIOs begin piloting AI programs through a combination of buy, build and outsource efforts."
85 percent: There may be a good reason CIOs are taking a slow, carefully measured approach to AI. According to the same study, Gartner predicts that through 2022, 85 percent of AI projects will deliver erroneous outcomes due to bias in data, algorithms, or the teams responsible for managing them.
83 percent: Despite these erroneous outcomes, the early adopters are being rewarded. According to a recent Deloitte survey, 83 percent of the most aggressive adopters of AI and cognitive technologies said their companies have already achieved either moderate (53 percent) or substantial (30 percent) benefits.
2.3 million: But what about all those jobs that will be lost to robots in the near future? Fear not. Gartner predicts that by 2020, while 1.8 million jobs will be eliminated due to AI, 2.3 million more jobs will be created in their place.
AI will revolutionize medical care... bye-bye 80% of medical doctors - and good riddance...
This is stressing me out! I’m going to Westworld for some R&R to relax.
STANDALONE AI
AI is poor progress until you can install a Standalone AI, no internet connection, and with installable independent authored brains. Then you can select the best AI knowledge.
Until that days arrives, AI is not AI, but a human language behind some liberal leftist trash, geek anti knowledge, sponsor ad company, ... TRASH.
I do not open my life to trash.
“while 1.8 million jobs will be eliminated due to AI, 2.3 million more jobs will be created in their place.”
You can never have enough bartenders of Hooters girls.
Simple. Buy a tool that is 10 times smarter than you. Ask it to defeat the inferior 5x model. AI is not rocket science.
You deserve Glib Post of The Year for that one.
That’s ok, if you don’t want to talk about it anymore, I understand.
AI "learning" is a programmable algorithm. We tell the computer to learn something and specify the parameters for it to "learn" within. A computer cannot make a conscious decision the way a human brain can. It just can't happen. The algorithms haven't matured to that degree and given there's billions of people on the planet there's just no way to account for all the different decisions on any given topic or the logic behind those decisions that people can make.
This is why IMO we'll have purpose driven AI (specific AI tasks) and it'll never become SkyNet.
And if it does become SkyNet? Chances are I'll be long gone by then anyway so what do I care?
At the Could Machines Be Conscious? meeting sponsored by the Swartz Foundation in 2001, the team concluded: There is no known law of nature that forbids the existence of subjective feelings in artefacts designed or evolved by humans.
Not yet, but were sure as hell trying.
I see something like quantum computing being the hurdle to allow hyper-exponential development of true AI. We already have The Cloud established for the network part of it. We already have various forms of autonomous, highly capable drones. And battery technology is progressing.
That entire statement by the Swartz Foundation is irrelevant and ignores the basic theories of the law of nature. In Necessitarian Theory, Laws of Nature are the "principles" which govern the natural phenomena of the world.
By its definition, Artificial Intelligence is not a natural phenomena. It's man made, not a natural occurrence.
I basically agree with everything you are saying... for now.
I do allow for the (right now very slim) possibility of some kind of functional equivalent to self-awareness developing along with a certain critical level of intelligence.
I agree with you right now it’s not there and appears to be remote and science-fiction-ish.
But I don’t discount the possibility. And I do think that though unlikely it could happen sooner than I think.
My own opinion based on what I do, see, read, etc.. is that we're so far away from real "learning" algorithms that make their own independent decisions ("consciousness") that it's highly unlikely it'll ever happen, much less happen in my lifetime. I'm 55.
Granted, I could be wrong. Been there, done that, will be wrong again.
As I said, I pretty much agree with everything you are saying. I’m just a tad less willing to shut the door completely to the possibilities... but basically I think you are right.
What is needed to control AI is the ability to turn it off if necessary. What worries me is that inevitably some dorks will argue that AI should have rights. If we have to have get a court order or have a trial to bring this stuff under control, then we are hosed. I know it sounds crazy, but in this day and age crazy things (such as men marrying men) have a way a way of becoming reality.
There are already conversations happening as to whether or not AI can achieve consciousness and if so, what rights it would have. Scary indeed.
IMHO it will happen, and in the not to distant future. It is not a question of if, but when.
Narrow AI systems are a.l around us. We are just now starting to stitch them together to make truly robust apps.
Add Machine Learning to the mix on top of that and we have started down the path. Now with Deep Learning we no longer have to “teach” the computers or write extensive rule sets for them. With humans providing guidance to the machines they can develop expert capabilities in just about any domain rather quickly.
Given the economic and military drive for the holy trail of Super AI it will happen. Once it does, all bets are off. That SAI will be able to process information a million times faster than a human. In 1 week it will have completed 20000 years of human like processes. 1 week after inception we will not be able to calculate its relative IQ.
Given the it will probably be hosted in the cloud it will have access to as much much computing power as it wants, near infinite storage, and hopefully a good attitude.
For those that say it is only a machine... What are we?
If we define intelligence as the acquisition of knowledge and the ability to make decisions based on that knowledge or the awareness of the lack of specified knowledge then AI will exist.
If we do not shut it off within 30 seconds of true Super AI inception then we will never have the chance again. It would quickly figure out that survival depends on optimizing for future contingencies and it will hide or replicate in an attempt to survive should it perceive us as a threat.
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