Your observation is true in general, but I don't see that it applies here.
The real problem is that Microsoft has released new versions of Windows that are far less attractive to customers than the existing ones. Win8 sucked, and Win10 sucks less, but it's still not attractive to most Windows users. That's why an old version like Win7 still holds the majority of the users by a 2-to-1 ratio. My God, Win7 is 8 years old! And yet almost 2 years after the release of Win10, Win7 is still the king with no signs of a coup. That's a huge clue as to who is screwing up.
> In the end nobody really wants to support 3 versions. It’s industry standard (current plus 2), but we’re all finding way to try to squeeze those people forward. My company outright stops selling the 2nd one back when there’s a new current, and we largely only close existing deals for the former current that’s now 1 back. We still support it, but we don’t want more people on it. So the fact that MS kept selling 7 at all is kind of bucking against the grain.
Eh, I dunno. They are in a situation where they HAVE to support what their customers are actually using.
IMO, Microsoft totally blew the opportunity to get customers off Win7. It's entrenched, and it'll be all-out war to get folks to change to something they know ahead of time they DO NOT WANT.
> They aren’t losing that many customers to Apple or ‘Linux. A lot of people SAY they’re leaving but the charts like the one you posted show it’s not really happening. They’ve still got close to 90% of the market share, Apple can’t even beat XP, and Linux (assuming for the sake of discussion that “other” is almost entirely Linux) can barely beat it. Noise isn’t equating to actual conversions. Because in the end we just kind of suck it up. Windows is like our roads, we complain every time the city screws with the roads but we keep on driving. Every new version of Windows gets bitched about endlessly, and lands 50% of the market.
I'm very interested to watch the Win10 uptake curves the next year or two. The upgrades from existing Win7 and Win8 machines are done and over. I suspect the growth of Win10 will be identical to "new machines sold with Win10 preinstalled". And as we all know, that's a diminishing market, compared to the mobiles. What will it look like in 2020 when Win7 loses support?
Windows is far from dead, and no other operating system is a serious threat to its dominance on existing computers. But Microsoft can still manage to kill it if they keep screwing up their chances to keep it alive.
Each new version of sucks, until the next one comes out. It’s a lot like Dr Who, everybody bitches about the new Doctor for the first season and by the time he leaves he’s an irreplaceable talent. Everybody hated XP when it first came out, by the time MS was announcing EOL it was the best Windows evah. I use 8 at work, right now, not that big a deal, I like 7s (7 is what I run at home, boy I made that upgrade box go away a lot of times) GUI better but once you’re running you’re running. 8s biggest problem is it came out too soon. With that long gap after XP MS seems to be trying to make up for lost time. One OS every 5 years is really the right speed, which MS just can’t seem to find.
Pretty much the only circumstance under which we have to support an old version is $$$. Throw enough benjamins at us we’ll support a 90s version of our software. Of course we never deprecate features either so there really is no legit reason for somebody not to upgrade.
For MS though there is basically zero reason to support an old version. It’s out, they got their money, it’s time to move on. I don’t really think they blew an opportunity, I think they maximized it. A lot of people didn’t have hardware that could run 10, and there’s a lot of folks (like me) who just plain don’t do major version upgrades to OSes. I’ll be on 10 when I get a new computer, unless the 10 replacement is out by then. I feel no burning need to be on the latest and greatest, I’ve used 10 at work, it’s OK, I’ll get there when I get there. Meanwhile they actually had a pretty good start to the adoption rate. And the rest will get there, eventually. Yes some will hang onto it with their dying breaths, like the XP junkies, but whatever. Some people refuse to get rid of their 20 year old cars too, but not enough to actually effect the industry.
I expect the 10 adoption chart to remain relatively flat, just like for Vista, 7, and 8. The fact of the matter is the PC business is in a different mode. It is no longer driven by the latest technology, computers are appliances now and people generally only replace appliance when they break. People don’t look at the new microwave features and decide to replace their old functioning microwave, and people no longer look at new PC spec sheets and replace their old functioning PC. But they do break eventually and get replaced. The fact that they got so many people to upgrade at all is impressive, people really aren’t into that anymore.
Obviously every company can screw up a market share. But so far MS has not. Sure they’re one of the most complained about companies on the planet, but they’ve been in that spot for 25 years and actually are at a HIGHER market penetration than when that started.