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New York Times' Dire Warning About Polling Accuracy (rutt rohh)
zero hedge ^ | 8-17-2016 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 08/17/2016 4:25:46 PM PDT by ak267

As I demonstrated in yesterday’s article, How Bloomberg Spun its Own Poll Data to Make Hillary Clinton Seem Inevitable, the media is intentionally spinning poll results at best, and completely fabricating them at worst.

While that’s bad enough, there are also some deep, fundamental problems which plague any attempts to conduct accurate polling in 2016. Cliff Zukin, professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers University and a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, wrote about many of these issues in a 2015 New York Times opinion piece titled, What’s the Matter With Polling?

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; polls; polls2016; trump
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To: Mears

IIRC it is from the Soupy Sales show where one of the characters, a dog, couldn’t say uh oh and instead said rutt rohh


41 posted on 08/17/2016 6:05:59 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: morphing libertarian

Thanks-—my God,Soupy Sales——haven’t heard him mentioned in years.

.


42 posted on 08/17/2016 6:07:15 PM PDT by Mears
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To: morphing libertarian

Did Scoobie-Doo steal it from Soupy Sales? because Rut Roh was Scoobie the dog saying uh oh in the cartoon series. it was one of his signature phrases.


43 posted on 08/17/2016 6:08:49 PM PDT by visualops (It's the majority of the American people and Trump against the enemies of the republic - Windflier)
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To: visualops

you may be correct. I stated IIRC and I am losing it slowly. I thought white fang used to say it, but I stand corrected. And of course Sales preceded Scooby.


44 posted on 08/17/2016 6:11:13 PM PDT by morphing libertarian
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To: dirtboy
I only have a mobile phone and I don’t answer any number I don’t recognize. I figure if it’s important, they’ll leave a message and a call-back number.

Exactly. That's undoubtedly what 99+% of most people with smart phones do. And everybody and their brother has a smart phone nowadays.

This reinforces more than ever how Freepers should not allow themselves to be discouraged over these pro-Hillary poll numbers. I think the Media and Establishment (but I repeat myself) are in for a rude awakening the night of November 8.

Every single conservative should make sure they vote, no matter how negative the spin is, and make sure they get out the vote of their family and friends.

Trump is going to win, and win BIG!

The article stated that back in the "old days" during the 1980's, pollsters considered 80% response rate to be acceptable. Over the last couple of decades, response rates have plummeted, and now stand at less than 10%!

And the Media is trying to have everyone believe that these polls are accurate?

Don't fall for it, people.

I'm more convinced than ever, due to the facts of the unreliability of modern day polling, that these rosy numbers for Hillary are absolute garbage. And the Establishment KNOWS it. It's the elephant in the room that they refuse to acknowledge.

So I don't want to see any more despondent, hysterical hand-wringing from Freepers, because, at this point, it flies in the face of all the real evidence we're seeing of Trump's solid and growing support.

We need to spread the info far and wide that modern-day polling has devolved into almost total guesswork and wishful thinking. These polls are more propaganda than ever! Whenever they are accurate, it's probably more by accident than anything else...

Vote Trump!

45 posted on 08/17/2016 6:18:34 PM PDT by sargon (Any one AWOL in the battle against Hillary is certainly not a patriot. It's that simple.)
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To: CapitalistCrusader

Accuracy in polling. Thanks!

I have been robo-called on an unpublished digital phone at my office since the beginning of the primaries (not so much lately though).

Once in a while I listen until the machine asks for the first response. The questions are always aimed at someone living hundreds of miles from where I work.

They need to work on their location algorithm


46 posted on 08/17/2016 6:30:00 PM PDT by Grampa Dave ((My passion for freedom is stronger than that of the Democrats whose obsession is to enslave me.))
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To: Lagmeister

Same here... I quit watching Fox.. TV was on and heard most of it... hard to watch that stuff. The gal who is taking the 9 pm Fox slot, (looks like megyn is gone?) is doing a great job.. I’m in a position that the TV is on where I am this week.. otherwise I would not know whose on any of the channels. .. but she is obviously not a liberal and is defending Trump.... pretty too.. she’s a lot better than megyn ever was.


47 posted on 08/17/2016 6:38:05 PM PDT by frnewsjunkie
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To: frnewsjunkie

This Megan fill in is Trish Regan she is from the Fox Business channel, which is what I have been watching lately instead of Fox News! Trish IS GREAT I hope Megan leaves permanently and Trish stays!!! I am only watching because of Trish I hope the ratings go up while Megan is gone!!!


48 posted on 08/17/2016 6:44:14 PM PDT by Trump Girl Kit Cat (Yosemite Sam raising hell)
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To: frnewsjunkie
I guess I snapped. I got sick of interviews that start off with polls, followed up with what some hack said about having a bad week or other and nothing about policy. I mean, if the purpose is to inform the viewer how do they think any of this does that.

Without looking it up, I guess it's the really smart 'sweet young thing' that covered the Supreme Court and filled in for others.... Now I got it, Shannon Bream?

49 posted on 08/17/2016 7:32:07 PM PDT by Lagmeister ( false prophets shall rise, and shall show signs and wonders Mark 13:22)
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To: Grampa Dave

“Some bad ones sneak through, usually local ones, and I put them on a call forwarding list.

Their calls get forwarded to the local DA’s office to report scams. They never call again.”

Great idea!


50 posted on 08/17/2016 7:50:47 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: sargon

Thanks your analysis and how we need to respond.


51 posted on 08/17/2016 8:40:49 PM PDT by Grampa Dave ((My passion for freedom is stronger than that of the Democrats whose obsession is to enslave me.))
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To: Lagmeister

Tonight the gal was Trish Regan.. saw her name at the end.. and another Freeper said what her name was too. She is on the Fox Busines. She could replace megyn anytiume.


52 posted on 08/17/2016 9:17:38 PM PDT by frnewsjunkie
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To: ak267
I think the most relevant point from that polling article is the following: if they're getting a response rate of less than 10% (compared to 80% traditionally in the olden days, their current polls are garbage, plain and simple. Nobody has any business claiming that they're reporting anything even remotely resembling an accurate gauge of public opinion. If they present such polls as accurate, they're engaging in deliberate fraud. Period. End of story.

As such, it's a fact that such polls are useful only as propaganda tolls, and not as an measure of public opinion. It's just obvious.

Couple that fact with the knowledge of a clear bias and overt advocacy for a specific candidate, and additionally the fact that virtually all other indicators seem to show great strength for Trump (voter enthusiasm, social media, rally sizes, yard signs, bumper stickers, etc., you name it) and I think it's fair to conclude that Trump has significantly more support than the Media & Establishment (but I repeat myself) are willing to admit.

One thing is certain: as furious as Americans are at this rigged system, they don't feel like answering polls, but they're going to show up in droves on November 8th and vote for Donald Trump for President. And almost equally certain is that those voting for Hillary will be unenthusiastic at best.

The evidence seems pretty clear to me that nobody should be letting themselves to become despondent or defeatist as a result of polls with such absurdly low response rates. Vote Trump!

53 posted on 08/17/2016 9:27:40 PM PDT by sargon (Any one AWOL in the battle against Hillary is certainly not a patriot. It's that simple.)
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To: ak267

Wasn’t Brexit going to fail miserably?

I hope they lull lib morons into staying home thinking Hildabeast has this one.


54 posted on 08/18/2016 12:39:38 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

The polling places can be watched, and should be, but what I worry about is the places with ELECTRONIC HACKABLE CHEATABLE voting machines. How is fraud through them exposed?


55 posted on 08/18/2016 3:08:05 AM PDT by Mrs. B.S. Roberts
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