Posted on 08/03/2016 7:45:33 PM PDT by Daniel Clark
The College Football Czar: 2016 Season Preview
a sports publication from The Shinbone
by Daniel Clark
Welcome to the 2016 season preview issue of The College Football Czar, a seasonal sports publication by the author and editor of The Shinbone. In the coming months, you will find weekly analyses of upcoming college football action posted at this site. To find out more, please see the Ground Rules.
This issue contains the Czar's rankings for all 128 teams in Division I-A football, as well as conference preview capsules, potential upsets to watch for, bowl projections, and a guide to help you locate head coaches on the move. Most importantly, it includes early nominees for the Lardhead of the Year Award, which the Czar never gets around to actually awarding, but for which he dispenses nominations copiously.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
COACHING MOVES
New coach ….. arriving at ….. previous position ….. former coach
Mike Neu ….. Ball State ….. QB coach N.O. Saints … Pete Lembo
Jim Grobe ….. Baylor ….. head coach W. Forest (2013) ….. Art Briles
Mike Jinks ….. Bowling Green ….. RB coach Texas Tech ….. Dino Babers
Kalani Sitake ….. Brigham Young ….. def. coord. Oregon St. ….. Bronco Mendenhall
Scott Frost ….. Central Florida ….. off. coord. Oregon ….. George O'Leary
Scottie Montgomery ….. East Carolina ….. off. coord. Duke ….. Ruffin McNeill
Kirby Smart ….. Georgia ….. def. coord. Alabama ….. Mark Richt
Tyson Summers ….. Georgia Southern ….. def. coord. Colorado St. ….. Willie Fritz
Nick Rolovich ….. Hawaii ….. off. coord. Nevada ….. Norm Chow
Lovie Smith ….. Illinois ….. head coach T.B. Buccaneers ….. Tim Beckman
Matt Campbell ….. Iowa State ….. head coach Toledo ….. Paul Rhoads
Matt Viator ….. La.-Monroe ….. head coach McNeese St. (I-AA) ….. Todd Berry
D.J. Durkin ….. Maryland ….. def. coord. Michigan ….. Randy Edsall
Mike Norvell ….. Memphis ….. off. coord. Arizona St. ….. Justin Fuente
Mark Richt ….. Miami ….. head coach Georgia ….. Al Golden
Tracy Claeys ….. Minnesota ….. def. coord. Minnesota … Jerry Kill
Barry Odom ….. Missouri ….. def. coord. Missouri ….. Gary Pinkel
Seth Littrell ….. North Texas ….. off. coord. N. Carolina ….. Dan McCarney
Chris Ash ….. Rutgers ….. def. coord. Ohio St. ….. Kyle Flood
Will Muschamp ….. South Carolina ….. def. coord. Auburn ….. Steve Spurrier
Dino Babers ….. Syracuse ….. head coach Bowling Green ….. Scott Shafer
Frank Wilson ….. Texas-San Antonio ….. RB coach LSU ….. Larry Coker
Everett Withers ….. Texas State ….. head coach J. Madison (I-AA) ….. Dennis Franchione
Jason Candle ….. Toledo …... off. coord. Toledo ….. Matt Campbell
Willie Fritz ….. Tulane ….. head coach Ga. Southern …. Curtis Johnson
Clay Helton … USC ….. off. coordinator USC ….. Steve Sarkisian
Bronco Mendenhall ….. Virginia ….. head coach BYU ….. Mike London
Justin Fuente ….. Virginia Tech ….. head coach Memphis ….. Frank Beamer
ROLLING HEAD WATCH
The following coaches will have a difficult time hanging onto their noggins through the 2016 season:
Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State – The fifth-year coach had an 11-win season in 2013, but he's gone 9-17 in two years since. When a successful coach is in years 3 through 5, that's when he's accumulated enough of "his" players to most effectively execute his game plan, but DeRuyter’s Dogs are in disarray. Not only do they lose, but they appear to lack ambition on either side of the ball. While the offense is reticent to launch a vertical attack, the defense chases its tail. What's more, the coach failed to prepare FSU for three consecutive bowl appearances from 2012-14, in which they were outscored 118-36. The coach pronounces his name "di-ROOT-er." That's just what he's likely to be a year from now, as he takes in the 2017 season from the bleachers.
Kevin Wilson, Indiana – 2015 should have been the breakthrough season toward which the head Hoosier was building, but even with senior QB Nate Sudfeld able to play the whole season, the best IU could do was 6-7. The coach is now 20-41 overall, and is only hovering near the .333 mark thanks to some soft nonconference scheduling. In Big Ten play, his record falls to the Mendoza Line, at 8-32. If he fails to sweep this September's nonconference slate (FIU, Ball St., Wake Forest, he'd better have a Mr. October in the on-deck circle, heading into a menacing early conference schedule.
Paul Haynes, Kent State – In 2012, the Golden Flashes went 11-3, and made their first bowl appearance in four decades. In 2013, they hired Haynes, who has since gone 9-26. A year ago, KSU averaged only 10.2 points per game against Division I-A competition, and they were shut out three times in their last five games, all by divisional rivals. At 46, the coach may have been hurried through the assistant coaching ranks too fast, serving as the defensive coordinator at Ohio State and Arkansas for only one year apiece. Haynes next stint as an assistant isn't likely to be as brief. (Haynes. Brief. It's a joke, son, you missed it.)
Mark Stoops, Kentucky – Back-to-back 5-7 finishes might not be too bad for UK, until you realize that they only went 2-6 in the SEC each of those years. Considering the relative weakness of that league's East division at this time, Stoops' three years at Lexington have been a missed opportunity. Among the Stoops family, Mark has by far the worst record, at 21-42. Even brother Mike, whose 8-year run in Arizona is considered unsuccessful, went 41-50 before joining brother Bob's staff at Oklahoma. That pretty much makes Mark the Zeppo Marx of football. He needs to turn things around, or he could wind up hearing people make lame excuses for him, like, "At least Zeppo can croon. Then again, so can anybody."
Mike Riley, Nebraska – The longtime Oregon State coach will be going for collegiate win #100 in this year’s opener against Fresno State. He was unable to field competitive teams during his last five years of Pac 12 football, however, which made his hiring by one of the nation's most storied programs more than a bit puzzling. Sure, it's only his second year with the Cornhuskers, but after last season’s torturous series of horrendous chokes, the fans in Lincoln must be getting a worse case of buyer's remorse than the guy who read Alec Baldwin’s autobiography.
James Franklin, Penn State – One way to look at it is that Franklin has been validated by how inept Vanderbilt has become over the past two years without him. Another way is to ask, did the coach recruit nobody during his three seasons in Nashville? It was easy for Franklin to look good with the Commodores. Bobby Johnson had put together a fairly talented team there, before abruptly leaving it in the hands of hapless, Luther van Dam-like caretaker coach Robbie Caldwell. Succeeding Caldwell, Franklin only needed to be competent, not good. Following Bill O’Brien’s overachieving Nittany Lion teams presented a far greater challenge, and so far, it's hard to argue that he’s been up to it. When the cocky coach promised to "dominate the state," he was talking about recruiting. Nevertheless, if he doesn't beat intrastate foes Pitt and Temple on the football field in September, those words will be thrown back in his face. Luckily, he’ll have his shades on.
Darrell Hazell, Purdue – Unable to replicate his amazing turnaround of the Kent State program, Hazell is only 6-30 in three years in West Lafayette. In 2015, the Boilermakers went 2-10, with their only Division I-A victory coming against a Nebraska team that was taking extraordinary measures to blow as many games as possible. With a far more forgiving schedule in 2016 (PU's three Big Ten East opponents are Penn State, Maryland and Indiana), it's not unreasonable to expect four wins or more, which might be enough to buy him another year. Mind you, his predecessor Danny Hope never won fewer than four games in a season, and was fired after four years for compiling a record of 22-27. Compared to that, keeping Hazell around for a fifth year just to break into double digits in the W-column would make about as much sense as you'd expect, coming from a team that names itself after two alcoholic beverages.
Charlie Strong, Texas – A season-ending upset of Baylor may have bought the former Louisville coach a little good will, but a third consecutive losing season in Austin will not be tolerated, especially if it includes more embarrassments like last year's 24-0 loss to Iowa State. With the lax attitude that had overtaken the program late in Mack Brown's tenure, it was hoped by many that the mere stabilizing presence of the longtime Florida defensive coach would be enough to lead the Longhorns' resurgence. In his first two years, however, he has gone 6-7 and 5-7, whereas his predecessor had only suffered one losing season in 16 years. It may now be up to freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, son of the former major league third-baseman Steve, to help Coach Strong escape his own hot corner.
Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M – Between his stints at Houston and College Station, Sumlin has a head coaching record of 71-33, which under most circumstances would mean very good job security. The trouble started last December, when highly touted quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray announced their departures in rapid succession. Allen, who is transferring to Sumlin's previous school, Houston, complains that the Johnny Manziel-era culture had infected the Aggie program, and was not conducive to team play. It must be pretty bad for Murray, a highly-rated baseball prospect for a nationally contending A&M team, to sit out both sports for a year while transferring to Oklahoma. When quarterbacks are turning down an offer to start for an SEC team, it's an inevitable conclusion that the head coach has got Sumlin to splain.
Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech – The coach who resembles Henri from Cheers must be doing a brilliant con job if he retains his position after another season like his first three. Coach KK is 19-19 so far, which means he’s really three games under .500, if you subtract lower-division opponents. A year ago, the Red Raider defense yielded 44 points or more in 8 of their 13 games, culminating in a 56-27 loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl. Sure, LSU is an outstanding team, but hardly an offensive juggernaut. But then, Henri has always been all hype. He never even really succeeded in stealing Woody's girlfriend.
WHAT'S NEW IN 2016
* Baylor is bailing water – Recruits are fleeing the sinking ship on the Brazos, in the wake of a scandal that has shaken one of the most successful programs of the past decade. Following a damning review of the school's handling of sexual assault accusations against its athletes, BU fired head football coach Art Briles and university president Ken Starr. The details of the Board of Regents' 13-page "Findings of Fact" were so appalling that the Big XII reacted by demanding a "full accounting of the circumstances" of all the allegations against Bear players. What is known so far is that school officials not only were unresponsive to alleged victims, but actively discouraged them from filing reports, and in one case, even took retaliatory action. The lack of specificity behind revelations like that has understandably alarmed the conference leadership. Considering the constant speculation over expansion and realignment, don't be surprised if the Big XII threatens to drop Baylor as a member altogether.
* Replay's reach extended – Where targeting fouls are concerned, the replay officials will now be empowered to stop the game for a review, even if no targeting penalty has been called by the on-field officials. This is a terrible idea, and not just because the replay officials are wrong an alarmingly high percentage of the time, which they are. The NCAA is now muddying the distinction between the roles of the on-field and replay officials. If the replay officials can intrude on the on-field officiating to call a targeting penalty, then why not offsides, or an illegal man downfield? The mysterious men in the booth will no doubt wield this new power promiscuously, using the excuse of player safety to make themselves a greater part of the game.
* Expansion, eventually – Officially, on paper, Coastal Carolina is now an "FBS Independent." As far as this publication is concerned, they remain in Division I-AA until 2017, when they will join the Sun Belt Conference. The Chanticleers do not play a single Division I-A opponent this year, and thus cannot be considered a I-A team in any realistic sense. Also in 2017, UAB returns to play in Conference USA for the first time since being deviously demised by the main campus in Tuscaloosa. Idaho, on the other hand, has finally seen the writing on the wall of the suffocatingly small Kibbie Dome, and decided to step back down to Division I-AA, where it will once again compete in the Big Sky Conference. One would think the Vandal fans would be disappointed by this development, but at least they'll have some conference road games within reasonable traveling distance, unlike Atlanta, Mobile and Lafayette.
* Australian opener – There's an early season opener this year, being played in Sydney, between California and Hawaii on Aug. 27th. It's the first game played down under since BYU defeated Colorado State 30-26 in Melbourne in 1987. This year's game is too soon to be included in the Czar’s first installment of picks, but suffice it to say, Cal should win. Not only is it a difficult opener for new UH head coach Nick Rolovich, but the Rainbow Warriors always have a tough time on those long road trips. For the first time ever, they will be traveling east, which calls for different kinds of adjustments than they're used to. An even greater challenge for the Warriors will come in their second game, when they cross nine time zones to play in Ann Arbor only eight days later.
* Conference USA be on beIN – The beIN Sports Network, best known for its international soccer and rugby programming, will broadcast 10 Conference USA football games this year, as part of an all-sport package that will also include baseball and softball, and men's and women's basketball, soccer and volleyball. BeIN is an obscure channel, but one that is carried by most cable companies and both satellite providers. If you’ve ever watched it, you've probably noticed that its HD quality is excellent. On the downside, it is an affiliate of al-Jazeera, so you won't be able to trust that the games you're watching are actually happening that way.
* Beer in the Iron City – Finally, beer will be served during Pitt Panther games at Heinz Field, and not just in small areas of club seating populated by the People Who Matter. New athletic director Scott Barnes studied the plan, and found that there was no good reason not to go through with it. Ever since the Panthers moved there in 2001, stadium employees have been instructed to lie to any fans who asked why there was no beer, by saying that they were complying with NCAA regulations. In reality, the ban only applies to on-campus facilities, which the Steelers' home field is obviously not. The Czar is tempering his enthusiasm, based on his expectation that every incident of fan misbehavior from now on will be attributed to beer, and that this will lead to demands that the decision be reversed. As for all you "it’s all about da munny" lardheads, yes, revenue was the driving factor in Barnes' decision, but what of the economically senseless, politically correct policy of the past 15 years?
WHAT'S NOT NEW
* Bowl games – The NCAA has finally re-imposed its moratorium on any new bowl games, after having to give a special dispensation to three losing teams a year ago in order to fill all the available berths. The decision is welcomed by the College Football Czar, even if it is a little like Rocky throwing in the towel once Apollo is already dead.
* Network officiating experts – The Czar had hoped this was a fad that would have ended by now. Even Sigourney Weaver's character in Galaxy Quest served a more vital function than these former officials, whose job is basically to watch the replays and guess how the replay officials are going to rule. Yes, Mr. Expert, we already know that the play was ruled a fumble on the field, but that because we see the runner's knee go down before he loses the ball, the call should be reversed. On the occasions when there is a genuine question about a rule, the experts are sometimes wrong, and adamantly so. Why not just have the color commentator pull up the relevant rule from the book on his computer and explain it? Aren't the announcers supposed to be knowledgeable about these things anyway?
* Changing channels during commercial breaks – Sure, we want to look in on other games anyway, but mostly we do it because we’re repelled by the obnoxious people who appear in many of the ads. With that in mind, the College Football Czar unveils The 25 Worst Commercial Spokes-Characters of All Time: (1) Jared; (2) The sadistic, pedophilic Quizno’s talking oven (Aren’t there any un-perverted sandwich chains?); (3) Keith Stone, the allegedly cool mascot of Keystone Beer; (4) Larry Culpepper, the Dr. Pepper vendor; (5) Flo; (6) "The Most Interesting Man in the World"; (7) Seth Rogen and Amy Schumer of the Bud Light Party, pretending to sell beer while promoting mindless left-wing celebrity dingbat politics instead; (8) The Zima wussy; (9) The "can you hear me now" geek; (10) Madge; (11) The Sonic drive-through dorks; (12) The "where’s the beef" lady, reprising her role for a lame Prego ad; (13) Lil' Sweet, whom the Czar had hoped would be quietly dismissed after Prince kicked the bucket; (14) The Geico caveman, after being beaten deeper into the ground than the bones of any real caveman yet to be discovered; (15) William Sanderson, a.k.a., Larry from Newhart, in a half-baked A&W campaign; (16) Samuel L. Jackson, in any ad for anything; (17) Herb, from the ill-fated Burger King "Spot Herb" promotion; (18) The "Hi, Guy" guy, for Right Guard; (19) The Hotel Planner superhero guys; (20) The Ty-D-Bol Man; (21); Ernest ("know what I mean?"); (22) The animated, cannibalistic M&Ms; (23) The Tough Act tough guy, a blatant rip-off of Mr. Clean; (24) "Grandpa," for Country Time lemonade; (25) Gary Burghoff as "That BP Guy"
LARDHEAD OF THE YEAR AWARD NOMINEES
* Art Briles' defenders – A small number of Baylor donors, and members of that school's Board of Regents, have been agitating to reinstate the recently dismissed coach, absolving him of responsibility for his team’s sexual assault scandal. Employing the Sergeant Schultz defense on Briles' behalf doesn't wash, because the head coach is ultimately accountable for what goes on within his program. Besides, Briles helped create the situation by stocking his roster with young men of low character, as anyone can see from their on-field behavior. Let the fallout from Waco serve as a warning to other coaches across the nation (This means you, Jimbo!) that their players must not be allowed to think that preying on women is a fringe benefit of their membership on the team.
* Pathetic former Penn State players – Prodded by a speech from the ever-creepier Franco Harris, more than 200 ex-Nittany Lions are demanding the return of the Disco Joe Paterno statue to its place of what they must perceive as honor. Okay, lardheads, once more from the top: Even assuming the 2001 incident that was witnessed by Mike McQueary was the only one that Paterno was aware of – an assumption that further strains credulity by the day – he was still guilty of enabling Jerry Sandusky’s abuse of young boys. Contrary to the oft-stated claim that Paterno did what the law required him to do by reporting the incident to athletic director Tim Curley, the Freeh Report explains that a federal law called the Clery Act required the coach instead to report it to the police. He did not do so. Nor did he restrict Sandusky's access to campus buildings, including showers, for an entire decade afterward. Nor did he raise any objection to PSU's continued partnership with Sandusky’s Second Mile charity, through which he supplied himself with victims. Sandusky used Penn State University has his own Neverland Ranch, and Paterno allowed him to do it. One would hope that those who’d been so loyal to the coach would feel at least a little betrayed.
* LSU running back Leonard Fournette – for tweeting a picture of himself in an Alton Sterling tee-shirt. Regardless of whether you think Sterling's shooting was necessary, he had violently resisted arrest to the point where two policemen were unable to subdue him, even after using a taser. The question of whether the shooting was justified hinges on whether or not Sterling was anywhere close to pulling a gun on the cops, as they claim he was. The police were called to the scene by a beggar, who claimed that Sterling had threatened him by brandishing a firearm. Sterling was a lifelong criminal, whose record included arrests for battery, burglary, "carnal knowledge of a juvenile," domestic abuse, drug possession, failure to register as a sex offender, carrying a firearm while in possession of a controlled substance, and, of course, resisting an officer. Is this Fournette's idea of a hero? Or even someone deserving of any sympathy whatsoever?
* Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher – for giving his players championship rings for the 2015 season. Mind you, the Seminoles didn't win the national championship. They didn't even win their division, let alone the ACC title, and they lost the Peach Bowl to Houston. So why the rings? Because they're the Champions of the State, for having defeated both Miami and Florida. Never mind that the state of Florida now has seven teams. This absurd and expensive gesture is not unprecedented. In 2013, Texas coach Mack Brown gave his players "momentum" rings, just for having won the Alamo Bowl. Mind you, it’s against NCAA regulations for the players to sell these trinkets, which are of no historical significance or sentimental value. That smells to the Czar like a clear-cut case of entrapment.
* Idaho center Steven Matlock – who was arrested in June for stealing two 30-packs of Keystone Light. Why did he steal Keystone Light? Well, it's hardly worth paying for, is it? Can he possibly be enough of a lardhead to have chosen that brand so that he could be like Keith Stone?
THE CZAR DECREES …
If the College Football Czar could issue proclamations changing college football, these are some of the things he would do:
* No more replay spoilers – When one of the sports networks is replaying a game late at night, is it too much to ask that they avoid giving away the result of that same game on the ticker?
* Penalty pants – If the players think touchdown dances and other forms of unsportsmanlike conduct make them look cool, then only a punishment that makes them look undeniably uncool can serve as an adequate deterrent. Therefore, in addition to assessing a 15-yard penalty, officials should force the offending player to wear polka-dotted golf knickers for the remainder of the game.
* Leave love and hate out of it – You'll never see the College Football Czar write that he's "giving some love" to a particular player or team, or refer to those with legitimate criticisms of same as "haters." If the Czar thinks somebody is an outstanding player, he'll say so, but he's no more interested in giving football players love than they are in receiving it from him. Moreover, if he thinks a team is overrated, or has played a terrible game, that does not mean he hates them. If you are a football player who feels hated by the Czar, let that serve as a warning that you have been in college entirely too long. It's time to get out into the real world, where there are no "safe spaces" in which to shield yourself from "micro-aggressions." As for the Czar, he's just going to kick back and enjoy the games. No need to get weird about it.
RANKINGS 1-10 (For full 1-128 rankings, please see main site)
1.Clemson; 2.Oklahoma; 3.Alabama; 4.Michigan; 5.Oregon; 6.LSU; 7.Notre Dame; 8.Tennessee; 9.Ohio St.; 10.TCU
CONFERENCE CAPSULES
American Athletic Conference (east)
1.South Florida Bulls* – late-season charge proved that Coach Taggart is it
2.Temple Owls – The cupboard is full in Philly, and not just with Cheez Whiz
3.Uconn Huskies – defensive dogs don't roll over for anybody
4.Cincinnati Bearcats – Kiel over? Soph QB Moore is ready just in case
5.Central Florida Knights – hit it right on the nose by hiring Frost
6.East Carolina Pirates – The you-ho-hos will be on them this year
American Athletic Conference (west)
1.Houston Cougars – Another great season from QB would be its own re-Ward
2.Memphis Tigers – Rookie coach Norvell introduces a new pyramid scheme
3.Navy Midshipmen – may go adrift, anchored by inexperienced seniors on O
4.Tulsa Golden Hurricane – Dust Bowl is a fitting home for this defense
5.Tulane Green Wave – even greener, with QB Tanner Lee waving goodbye
6.SMU Mustangs – Their hides serve as red carpets for visiting foes
* projected conference champion
Outlook: The exodus of offensive talent from this league clears the way for USF to continue the roll it started midway through last season. If Connecticut can move the ball at all this year, coach Bob Diaco could actually see his team play for a trophy not of his own making. The Cougars should cruise in the West, with their only two real competitors breaking in new QBs. Okay, so Mustangs aren't really red. So who are you, the equine police?
Atlantic Coast Conference (atlantic)
1.Clemson Tigers* – veteran O from ’15 Orange Bowl winners continues to roll
2.Florida State Seminoles – Questions at QB are a chief concern to the choppers
3.Nc State Wolfpack – better wear their Raleigh-caps during October ballgames
4.Louisville Cardinals – veteran defense of Red Rage gets better with age
5.Boston College Eagles – A BC D is a good start, but where's the rest?
6.Syracuse Orange – will be carried out of Carrier Dome, after brutal home schedule
7.Wake Forest Demon Deacons – another year up in smoke in Winston-Salem
Atlantic Coast Conference (coastal)
1. Miami Hurricanes – new coach's big splash will register on Richt-er scale
2. North Carolina Tarheels – losing too many LBs to remain among heavyweights
3. Pitt Panthers – RBs have the meats, but can the QB cut the mustard?
4. Virginia Tech Hokies/Gobblers – Transition will take time in Toikeytown
5. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets – front seven must swarm for DBs to have any sting
6. Virginia Cavaliers – hiring of BYU coach was inspired im-Provo-sation
7. Duke Blue Devils – Sirk's uncertainty makes season hard to endure in Durham
* projected conference champion
Outlook: The Paw Boys should repeat as conference champs without much opposition, not even a thumb. Ex-Georgia coach Mark Richt will have immediate success at Miami, just as long as he has better luck with the health of his running backs. Dramatic changes under new VT coach Justin Fuente make the Gobblers a threat to shake up several national contenders.
Big Ten Conference (east division)
1.Michigan Wolverines* – When a big play is called for, TE Jake Butt will not crack
2.Ohio State Buckeyes – Urban renewal plan is needed, with 3 starters back on each side
3.Michigan State Spartans – Did the Great Gazoos use up all their tricks in 2015?
4.Penn State Nittany Lions – must catch lightning, or Franklin can go fly a kite
5.Maryland Terrapins – WR Will Likely will likely break big plays on special teams
6.Rutgers Scarlet Knights – up-tempo attack tries to drive slugs from Garden State
7.Indiana Hoosiers – Their games aren't designed for your enjoyment
Big Ten Conference (west division)
1.Iowa Hawkeyes – favorable slate brings everyone to their field but Shoeless Joe
2.Northwestern Wildcats – 10-wins with no passing game even stunned Evanston
3.Minnesota Golden Gophers – Coach Claeys can quickly mold them into a contender
4.Nebraska Cornhuskers – need to cob-ble together offensive and defensive lines
5.Wisconsin Badgers – team from Madison needs to be reconstituted
6.Illinois Fighting Illini – Coach Lovie will not be dovey toward Big Tenemies
7.Purdue Boilermakers – another uphill struggle for The Little Train That Could Puke
* projected conference champion
Outlook: The Czar doubts OSU can replace 16 starters soon enough to be ready for a Week 3 faceoff with Oklahoma. The Wolverines can't afford to be claustrophobic, with their three biggest games being played away from The Big House. In the West, I's Eyes have it again.
Big Twelve Conference
1.Oklahoma Sooners – not waiting 'til later to play games with CFP implications
2.TCU Horned Frogs – Lizard kings' mojo isn't risin in this rebuilding year
3.Oklahoma State Cowboys – Mike Gundy needs his running game to man up
4.West Virginia Mountaineers – Defensive losses aren't mountain music to 'Eers
5.Baylor Bears – yearning for the happier times of the Branch Davidian raid
6.Texas Tech Red Raiders – Skies aren't all cloudy with QB Mahomes on the range
7.Texas Longhorns – bullish on burly running backs Foreman and Warren
8.Kansas State Wildcats – Coach Snyder's silver anniversary rings hollow
9.Iowa State Cyclones – It'd take Joe ISU-zu (#26?) to predict a good year for these guys
10.Kansas Jayhawks – Second-year coach waits with Batey-d breath for first victory
Outlook: Oklahoma leaves the rest of the conference in the dust, unaffected by the talent drought that afflicts the other nine. The big question for Big Game Bob and his Sooners is whether they'll be able to solve Clemson, if they have to face them for the third time in as many postseasons. With all the expansion talk, WVU must be rooting hard for Cincinnati and Memphis to get the nod. If the league moves westward instead, the Mountaineers should take the hint and get out. Belonging to a "power five" conference just is only worth so much.
Conference USA (east division)
1.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders* – futures rise with coach Stockstill's son at QB
2.Marshall Thundering Herd – need no Marshall Plan to rebuild on defense
3.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – 2015 kings of the hill won't throw in the towel
4.Florida Atlantic Burrowing Owls – Rat Mouth is watering over new no-huddle O
5.Florida International Golden Panthers – veteran OL improves QB McGough's vision
6.Old Dominion Monarchs – defense must stop lion down on the job
7.Charlotte 49ers – hammer-and-sickle-heads are readying purge of I-AA leftovers
Conference USA (west division)
1.Southern Miss Golden Eagles – departure of Monken throws wrench in their season
2.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – Dog-gone, they've lost a lot of last year's talent
3.UTEP Miners – Injuries were key to last season's cave-in
4.Rice Owls – still soggy from 2015 season that went snap, crackle, whimper
5.UTSA Roadrunners – will run at home, too, under ex-LSU running backs coach
6.North Texas Mean Green – Nick Nolte and Mac Davis could start for these guys
* projected conference champion
Outlook: It won't take much helium to lift the MT-heads to the top of the tightly packed East division. Despite the unexpected loss of Coach Monken, USM should U-sume control in the West, thanks in part to a very favorable league schedule.
Independents
1.Notre Dame Fighting Irish – will win 10 again, if pass D doesn’t break in south Bend
2.Brigham Young Cougars – schedule doesn't leave coach Sitake mush room for error
3.Army Black Knights – could be Army of Won if experience pays off in close games
4.Umass Minutemen – ex-MAC doormat rolls out carpet for big-leaguers in Foxboro
Outlook: There's nobody on the Irish schedule they can't beat, but it's too much to expect them to run that gauntlet without taking a couple losses. BYU is auditioning for entry into a new conference, while Massachusetts might benefit from a vacancy in the AAC.
Mid-American Conference (east division)
1.Bowling Green Falcons – may have league foes Jinks'd with surprise hire
2.Ohio Bobcats – Sometimes the Bobs get the apple, sometimes the core
3.Akron Zips – more mercenary transfers to play for Terry Bowden
4.Buffalo Bulls – Too many noo moos spoils something that ends with "oo"
5.Kent State Golden Flashes – nation's worst O scored 0 in three of last five in 2015
6.Miami OH RedHawks – Skins no longer want to be on their team, nor do the Shirts
Mid-American Conference (west division)
1.Northern Illinois Huskies* – Beware QB Hare when he gets rabbit in his blood
2.Western Michigan Broncos – so irritating that they need calamine in Kalamazoo
3.Toledo Rockets – 2014 starter Woodside ready to re-launch at quarterback
4.Central Michigan Chippewas – a run game to help QB Rush wouldn’t be redundant
5.Ball State Cardinals – Neu coach led BSU to league title as quarterback in 1993
6.Eastern Michigan Eagles – field still slanted against them in Ypsilanti
* projected conference champion
Outlook: Once again, the West division dominates, with four teams that each would be capable of winning the East. The Huskies' veteran QB-tailback tandem should carry them to a sixth consecutive division title. Meanwhile, BGSU tries for its fourth straight in the East, after facing a treacherous early nonconference schedule. OU can't break through for a league title, but continues a very good post-Husker career for super-veteran coach Frank Solich.
Mountain West Conference (mountain division)
1.Boise State Broncos* – Soph QB will be Rypien the seams in opposing Ds
2.New Mexico Lobos – nothing quirky about recent success in Albuquerque
3.Air Force Falcons – flyboys' usual cushy schedule makes for soft landing
4.Utah State Aggies – Logan runs, and runs, in attempt to renew itself
5.Colorado State Rams – no butts about it, their defensive outlook is dire
6.Wyoming Cowboys – must gitalong, long way back toward contention
Mountain West Conference (west division)
1.San Diego State Aztecs – at least Az good Az last year’s 11-win team
2.Nevada Wolf Pack – tough road slate, but they’ll make hay at Mackey Stadium
3.San Jose State Spartans – Loser Bowl champs want bid for scoring TDs, not As & Bs
4.UNLV Rebels – should mature a little, by HS coach’s sophomore year
5.Fresno State Bulldogs – may need to call DeRoto Ruyter to fix this team
6.Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Road warriors play first two games 9,500 miles apart
Outlook: Broncs' cheers will be heard once again as BSU returns to top form, as a favorite to reach one of the six major bowls. SDSU would likely win the West no matter what, but it sure helps that they don’t face Boise, UNM or Air Force.
Pac 12 Conference (north division)
1.Oregon Ducks* – new OC Brady Hoke gives a needed poke to plodding defense
2.Washington State Cougars – prolific QB could become a Faulk hero in Pullman
3.Stanford Cardinal – Can Christian McCaffrey hold together hollowed-out O?
4.Washington Huskies – one standout receiver away from leading the Pac
5.California Golden Bears – rebuilding roster is down to Bear minimum
6.Oregon State Beavers – still no core in the team from Corvallis
Pac 12 Conference (south division)
1.Arizona Wildcats – Rich didn't spare the Rod with disobedient defense
2.UCLA Bruins – QB Rosen's on the rise, but what about the rest of his team?
3.Utah Utes – with offensive losses, they'll continue to play salty D on the lake
4.USC Trojans – WR JuJu bes tough on defensive backs, as well as teeth and gums
5.Arizona State Sun Devils – They'll tri and dent the scoreboard, but with what?
6.Colorado Buffaloes – football in Boulder is seldom beautiful
* projected conference champion
Outlook: The Fighting Ducks are now as experienced as they are talented at most offensive positions. If Dakota Prukop performs well at QB, and the D becomes more aggressive under Hoke, the quackers will contend nationally once again. The pendulum swings back to the Great Northwest, where both the Cougars and Huskies are on the way up. Glaring deficiencies define the South, where everyone is in the running except the Buffs.
Southeastern Conference (east division)
1.Tennessee Volunteers – finely aged team will deliver sour mash to divisional foes
2.Georgia Bulldogs – Hiring of head coach Smart from Bama staff was a no-brainer
3.South Carolina Gamecocks – leaving depleted team for Muschamp is no Pharoh
4.Florida Gators – Playing at the Swamp's no excuse for this waterlogged offense
5.Missouri Tigers – incoming staff must stop inmates from running the 'zou
6.Kentucky Wildcats – another sad year for felines – whoah-whoah-whoah, felines
7.Vanderbilt Commodores – not bilt for speed, averaging 15.2 ppg in 2015
Southeastern Conference (west division)
1.Alabama Crimson Tide* – How will OC Kiffin handle former school SC in opener?
2.LSU Tigers – lardheaded AD almost left team Les-less late last season
3.Ole Miss Rebels – Senior quarterback Chad won't leave his teammates hanging
4.Arkansas Razorbacks – Can new DB coach Paul Rhoads enforce a No Passing zone?
5.Texas A&M Aggies – Ever since Johnny, QBs have taken football and gone home
6.Auburn Tigers – chasing their own tails in search of an offensive leader
7.Mississippi State Bulldogs – mud puppies start a new litter in Dak's absence
* projected conference champion
Outlook: As much as the Czar dislikes being trite, Bama will win the conference title yet again. The Tide's toughest challenge comes at LSU on Nov. 5, in Game of the Century Ten Zillion. If the East division were its own conference, it would only be about on par with the Mountain West. That makes the Volunteers the equivalent of Boise State – which is nothing to sneeze at on top of Old Smokey.
Sun Belt Conference
1.Arkansas State Red Wolves – rotating backs drive the ball with pack mentality
2.Appalachian State Mountaineers – Don't expect Appalachian to trail much this year
3.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns – will fleur the offensive pedal with RB McGuire
4.South Alabama Jaguars – Jags off to tough start with menacing early schedule
5.Georgia State Panthers – might need some of the Georgia Dome's other 40,000 seats
6.Texas State Bobcats – still looking to make their mark in San Marcos
7.Georgia Southern Eagles – shift toward passing game could leave Statesboro in shock
8.Troy Trojans – old college Troy will not succeed at first, at Clemson and Southern Miss
9.Idaho Vandals – taggers are at a disadvantage playing tackle football
10.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks – belligerent birds battle brutal nonconference schedule
11.New Mexico State Aggies – There's never a crucial game in Las Cruces
Outlook: Under third-year coach Blake Anderson, the Wolves have finally got some stability; not that they've ever needed it before. Unfortunately, the two A-States don't play each other this year, which could easily lead to a shared conference title. Idaho coach Paul Petrino is looking to prove he deserves to stay in Division I-A, even though his Vandals won't.
BOOBY-TRAP BALLGAMES
The College Football Czar has no idea who he will end up picking to win the following games, but he highlights them now as possible upsets which threaten to ensnare some of the nation's most prominent programs. The favored teams appear in bold face.
Sept. 1
Appalachian State at Tennessee – The Volunteers expect, with good reason, to sneak up on the top teams of the SEC this year, but they may be ripe for an ambush themselves, against a rapidly improving Mountaineer team that figures to contend for the Sun Belt title. There's nothing about Rocky Top that's likely to intimidate the team from Boone, NC.
Sept. 3
Oklahoma at Houston – The Cougars probably don't have the talent to return to a CFP bowl game, but they still have senior QB Greg Ward, who is able to possess the ball, and therefore the clock, enough to confound one of the national championship contenders. This game is being played at NRG Stadium, which increases the size of the home crowd by about 50 percent.
USC vs. Alabama – Former Trojan head coach Lane Kiffin faces his old team as offensive coordinator of the Crimson Tide. Whomever he picks for his new QB will be making his debut against a stacked SC secondary.
Oct. 8
Notre Dame at Nc State – Even during last year’s 10-win season, the Fighting Irish did not fare well on the road, where they suffered both regular season losses, and eked out wins over ACC also-rans Virginia and Boston College. The Pack only went 3-3 in Raleigh last year, but those losses came in ferocious battles with Louisville, Clemson and UNC.
Oct. 15
Southern Miss at LSU – A revitalized Golden Eagle team tries to reclaim the "giant killer" reputation it had decades ago, against a Tiger club that may be unsettled after last year's unexpected threat to Les Miles' job. Louisiana State will be returning from a tough road trip to Florida, and preparing to host divisional foe Ole Miss a week later.
Oct. 20
Miami at Virginia Tech – The wild card in this year's ACC race is how much more potent the Gobbler offense will be under former Memphis coach Justin Fuente. Watch for them to revert to their ground game, however, to take advantage of a vulnerable Canes' run defense.
Nov. 12
San Diego State at Nevada – The Aztecs could run the table in the MWC's West division, if they can outrun UNR on its own turf. The Wolf Pack will still be packing the pistol in their new offense, but they expect to be quicker on the draw.
Pitt at Clemson – In the middle of a weak November schedule, the Tigers take on an unfamiliar ACC foe that might catch them coasting. By November of Pat Narduzzi's second season in the Burgh, his defense might be as tough as some pundits assume it already is.
Nov. 26
Oregon at Oregon State – Last year's Alamo Bowl collapse was foreshadowed by the Civil War, in which the Ducks led OSU 31-7 at halftime, then were left desperately clinging to a 52-42 victory. It was the second time in three years the apparently overmatched Beavers pushed their rivals to the brink. After a Week 3 visit to Nebraska, the webfoots won't have ex-OSU coach Mike Riley to kick around anymore, and they'll probably wish they still had.
BOWL PROJECTIONS
Just for fun, the Czar takes his best preseason guesses at how the postseason might turn out.
Bowl …….... Date …….... Matchup …….... Projection
New Mexico ….. Dec. 17 ….. MWC vs. C-USA ….. New Mexico vs. UTEP
Las Vegas ….. Dec. 17 ….. Pac 12 vs. MWC ….. UCLA vs. UNLV
Cure ….. Dec. 17 … AAC vs. Sun Belt ….. Tulsa vs. S. Alabama
Camellia ….. Dec. 17 ….. MAC vs. Sun Belt ….. Akron vs. Georgia St.
New Orleans ….. Dec 17 ….. Sun Belt vs. C-USA ….. Arkansas St. vs. La. Tech
Miami Beach ….. Dec. 19 ….. MAC vs. AAC ….. Ohio vs. Cincinnati
Boca Raton ….. Dec. 20 ….. AAC vs. C-USA ….. Uconn vs. FL Atlantic
Poinsettia ….. Dec. 21 ….. MWC vs. BYU^ ….. San Diego St. vs. Brigham Young
Famous Idaho Potato ….. Dec 22 ….. MWC vs. MAC ….. Air Force vs. Central Michigan
Bahamas ….. Dec. 23 ….. AAC vs. MAC ….. Memphis vs. Bowling Green
Armed Forces ….. Dec. 23 ….. Big XII vs. Navy^ ….. Baylor vs. Navy
GoDaddy.com ….. Dec. 23 ….. Sun Belt vs. MAC ….. Appalachian St. vs. No. Illinois
Hawaii ….. Dec. 24 ….. MWC vs. C-USA ….. Nevada vs. Middle Tennessee
St. Petersburg ….. Dec. 26 ….. AAC vs. C-USA* ….. S. Florida vs. Toledo
Quick Lane ….. Dec. 26 ….. Big Ten vs. ACC* ….. Maryland vs. W. Michigan
Independence ….. Dec. 26 ….. ACC vs. SEC* ….. Virginia Tech vs. Washington
Heart of Dallas ….. Dec. 27 ….. C-USA vs. Big Ten ….. So. Miss vs. Wisconsin
Military ….. Dec. 27 ….. ACC vs. AAC ….. Nc State vs. Temple
Holiday ….. Dec. 27 ….. Big Ten vs. Pac 12 ….. Nebraska vs. Washington St.
Cactus ….. Dec. 27 ….. Big XII vs. Pac 12 ….. Texas Tech vs. Utah
New Era Pinstripe ….. Dec. 28 ….. ACC vs. Big Ten ….. Louisville vs. Penn St.
Russell Athletic ….. Dec. 28 ….. ACC vs. Big XII ….. Pitt vs. W. Virginia
Foster Farms ….. Dec. 28 ….. Big Ten vs. Pac 12 ….. Minnesota vs. Stanford
Texas ….. Dec. 28 ….. Big XII vs. SEC ….. Texas vs. Texas A&M
Birmingham ….. Dec. 29 ….. AAC vs. SEC* ….. Houston vs. La.-Lafayette
Belk ….. Dec. 29 ….. ACC vs. SEC ….. N. Carolina vs. S. Carolina
Alamo ….. Dec. 29 ….. Big XII vs. Pac 12 ….. Oklahoma St. vs. Arizona
Liberty ….. Dec. 30 ….. Big XII* vs. SEC* ….. Army vs. W. Kentucky
Sun ….. Dec. 30 ….. Pac 12 vs. ACC ….. USC vs. Boston Coll.
Music City ….. Dec. 30 ….. SEC vs. ACC ….. Alabama vs. Florida St.
Orange ….. Dec. 30 ….. ACC vs. At-large ….. Miami vs Tennessee
Arizona ….. Dec. 30 … C-USA vs. MWC ….. Marshall vs. San Jose St.
Citrus ….. Dec. 31 ….. SEC vs. Big Ten ….. Ole Miss vs. Iowa
Gator ….. Dec. 31 ….. SEC vs. Big Ten ….. Florida vs. Michigan St.
Peach ….. Dec. 31 ….. Semifinalist vs. Semifinalist ….. Clemson vs. Michigan
Fiesta ….. Dec. 31 ….. Semifinalist vs. Semifinalist ….. Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Outback ….. Jan. 2 ….. SEC vs. Big Ten ….. Georgia vs. Northwestern
Cotton ….. Jan. 2 ….. At-large vs. At-large ….. Notre Dame vs. Boise St.
Rose ….. Jan 2 ….. Big Ten vs. Pac 12 ….. Ohio St. vs. Oregon
Sugar ….. Jan. 2 ….. SEC vs. Big XII ….. LSU vs. TCU
Championship ….. Jan. 9 ….. Peach winner vs. Fiesta winner ….. Clemson vs. Oklahoma
* At large bid opens due to lack of eligible team to fulfill commitment
^ If eligible
Alabama may be a little down this year but I would never count them out. Clemson may win it all and they really took Alabama to the edge last year.
The state of Florida has too much talent for UF to keep being mediocre. They have to step up eventually.
You are definitely a good, farsighted prognosticator!
Oklahoma State has a world class QB but last year he had a weak offensive line and no running game which kept him from looking like it.
If they can shore up those positions, they could literally be playing for it all.
Go WVU
How does Alabama play in the Music City Bowl and also in the semifinal game?
Two little words: ROLL TIDE
2017 when my UAB Blazers get back on the field, look out conference USA.
Good read in several aspects:
The Hot Seat rundown - Two of Big Game Bob’s boys, Wilson and Sumlin, plus brother Mark are about to hit the skids. I hate everything Stoops so this suits me just fine. Throw in Charlie Strong at UT and Kliff Kingsbury at T-Tech and everything is coming up roses on that front. Top it off with Baylor being relegated back to its appropriate place in the universe...just WOW!!
As to beer at Pitt games, if they just serve Iron City brew, that would be a great bit not-so-delicious irony. However, my Oklahoma State Cowboys have to go there in the near future so it would be better if they upgraded the brew.
Penalty Pants?? Oh, yeah, love it!!
How the hell do blow off the fun at Bristol Motor Speedway?
BTW I will give you +20 on Appy St. vs TN.
Lotta work there, DC! Enjoyed it very much and saving for later review.
All I can say is, South Carolina, sucks to be you.
Will up to five losses at Ohio State cause UFM to consider having another health crisis?
Here’s to hoping the Miami Hurricanes do as well as you predict.
I’m not sure if Oklahoma will make it there—they have this tendency to “stub their toes” at the worst time possible. Ohio State versus Clemson might be a very attractive Championship Game, though.
Sorry, just too much of a Yankee, I guess.
Gonna be a good season for my Aztecs.
We learned today how much Mississippi State is missing Dak Prescott.
This Buechele kid looks real good for the Horns.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.