And when Trump exposes Hillary's complicity in Bill's rape-culture, Clinton's support will drop.
Posted on 04/16/2016 11:16:37 AM PDT by grumpa
The GOP delegate race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is far closer and more competitive than most of the mainstream media is reporting. As a result, and in an effort to get a more accurate view of where this race stands, comes this effort to update the picture with the more accurate reflection of where the GOP stands in the delegate count. The current delegate count reported by Real Clear Politics will be the starting point, with the specific changes not reported there, reported here instead. The current numbers reported there are 755 delegates for Donald Trump, and 545 delegates for Ted Cruz.
The previous edition of this column addressed why the 50 delegates Trump win in South Carolina will be converted to uncommitted, allowing those delegates to possibly and maybe likely vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Additionally, the 10 delegates in Louisiana gained by Cruz were explained, five were uncommitted delegates won by Cruz and the other five were the delegates Marco Rubio won in that state from primary voters. These changes leave the count at Trump 705, Cruz 555.
Conventions held recently in Tennessee and Virginia have lead to Trump losing eight delegates to Ted Cruz, while Cruz has gained an additional 8 delegates won from North Dakota. Additionally, it is reported from Republicans in Arizona that the state’s 58 delegates will actually be evenly split between the candidates, causing 29 delegates to move from Trump to Cruz. These changes mean Ted Cruz has 608 delegates to Trump’s 660 delegates.
Marco Rubio, who is all but certainly likely to endorse Ted Cruz, has 166 remaining delegates, that are likely to vote for Ted Cruz on the first ballot in Cleveland. Those delegates will give Ted Cruz a 774 to 660 delegate lead over Donald Trump right now. That’s right, a Ted Cruz lead over Donald Trump in delegates right now.
What will happen after this is a likely split of most of the states between Trump and Cruz with Kasich winning some delegates in a few of the states. Going with those projections, and using the delegate simulator at Real Clear Politics, and then factoring in the changes covered in this article, the delegate count finishes with Ted Cruz having a 1071 delegates to 1051 delegates lead over Donald Trump. But even at those numbers, some media outlets might still be reporting a delegate lead for Trump. If the 50 delegates from South Carolina vote for Cruz, which is likely, Ted Cruz would be at 1101 delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland.
There will be well over 100 other uncommitted delegates, and both Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have every right to work on winning those delegates. They will likely split between the two candidates on the first ballot. It seems likely that both candidates will fall short of the 1237 delegate votes needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Ted Cruz would stand a good chance of winning at least 1237 on the second ballot to win the nomination and run against Hillary Clinton in November.
When the “smoke” clears your side will be feign outrage at the discover of rules that leave many delegates unbound in this process.
Go Cruz. The most conservative candidate running.
The ones that voted for someone else but their vote meant nothing. Got a clue now?
Chambers? Hard to take him seriously when it comes to numbers. He had Romney willing by 20 electoral votes or so right before the 2012 election.
BS. Arizona was a winner take all. Does not require 50%, only the plurality of the votes. This is garbage.
Funny thing, Trump has exposed that 30% republicans are in fact liberals. They are hook on corruption, bottom up and top down...
You are USING the Senator’s daughters for your CRUDE picture ..????
SICK.
When it becomes a real contest, the numbers will be better.
Chambers? Hard to take him seriously when it comes to numbers. He predicted Romney willing by 20 electoral votes or so right before the 2012 election.
Here is another bit to chew on.
Trump may wib wa state primaries giving him an.additional required block for the first round. But all those delegates who are obligated to trump on round 1 are released.on.round 2.
Trump.people did not show up here to be delegates from.their counties to the state convention. So we are likely to ship Cruz supporters to national.
Watch WA delegates flip from required Trump on round.one to fully Cruz on round 2.
Ground game counts and.Trump already lost WA for.round 2 voting.
“Lyin Cruzers”?
First, I agree that the delegate numbers in the article are absurd. However, that can be said without making it personal. Or do you want Trump to lose in November?
Personal attacks are both unnecessary and unhelpful. Does anyone benefit other than Hillary, Bernie, Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, and others who consistently support Amnesty, who consistently support Obamacare, and who consistently support restrictions on our individual, God-given right to keep and bear arms?
Decent Americans are better off with a real truce, and not just a “I’ll stop when every person who even pretends to support the other side stops” gesture toward a truce that will never happen.
The nonsense is not helping us to elect the best possible conservative in November. I want 99% or more of Cruz supporters to vote Trump, when he is nominated, even if they hold their noses. In the event that Cruz wins the nomination, I want 99% or more of Trump supporters to vote Cruz, even if they hold their noses. Offending the other side does not encourage them to vote Trump (or Cruz) in November.
I cannot help wondering how many of those who stir up the Trump-Cruz wars are actually paid trolls taking Jeb/Hillary/Soros money to cause trouble - not all of them but probably enough to set the toxic tone.
I stand by my recurring statement:
Cruz and Trump are both imperfect but they agree far more than 80% of the time (see my tagline from Ronald Reagan). They should be friends and allies, and we should treat both of them as such.
And when Trump exposes Hillary's complicity in Bill's rape-culture, Clinton's support will drop.
Ted Cruz is a fringe candidate, as the general population gets to know him, he will be as welcomed as he is in New York.
LOL.
So, he’s too incompetent to speak for himself.
And, by the way .. I didn’t need your comment .. which is always rude and idiotic.
The picture is from the movie The Shining, you idiot!
Ah yes, let us descend into “name calling” .. always a winner.
Didn’t know that BS could pile this night but I guess I forgot the common core math class.
BTW, without any more consideration of this drivel how will Ted win without Florida?
He isn’t loved here by any demographic but I also have noted no one mentions Ted stealing any of Florida’s delegates, for good reason...
Gee, just like any election where those that vote for the losing candidate. Are those voters disenfranchised? No they are not. They got to have their say. Disenfranchised only applies to those who did not get to participate.
Also, disenfranchised does not apply to those that CHOOSE to not attend the caucuses.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.