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The GOPe has Screwed the Pooch (Sargon's vain analysis)
self | 3/30/2016 | self

Posted on 03/30/2016 4:47:20 PM PDT by sargon

In my humble opinion, the Republican party has effectively and totally destroyed itself with its relentless character assassination vendetta against its own frontrunner, Donald Trump.

There will be no recovering from this. Here are the only possible scenarios I can see, as we finish the primary season and move into the GOP convention:

Scenario #1: The only scenario that has the potential to expand the GOP demographic base permanently and beat Hillary is for Donald Trump to win the nomination and face Hillary in the general election, either with a clear majority or a near majority of delegates.

Scenario #2: Ted Cruz wins the GOP nomination fair and square, without jumping into bed with the GOPe. In that case, his narrow demographic base probably dooms him, but at least voter enthusiasm is preserved. Unfortunately, this scenario has already been obviated by the fact that the GOPe is demonizing Trump nonstop, infuriating his voters, and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly, which alienates Donald Trump voters who otherwise might be willing to support Ted Cruz.

Scenario #3: Ted Cruz wins the nomination with the help of the GOPe, either by getting a majority of delegates or by leapfrogging the frontrunner at the convention. This scenario still results in a candidate with a vary narrow base who likely can't overcome the demographic realities which accrue to the benefit of the Democrat party. Furthermore, this scenario also results in furious Trump voters who believe in their hearts that the nomination was stolen as a result of the constant character assassination directed at Donald trump.

Scenario #4: The convention is contested and someone other than Trump or Cruz is nominated. In this case, voters from both of the leading candidates are furious with the party, and enough of them stay home for Hillary to win easily.

So that is my analysis.

It looks very much to me like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is beginning to succeed. Unfortunately, that "anybody" is going to be Hillary Clinton, unless she's indicted, in which case any of the above scenarios could still, theoretically at least, result in a GOP victory.

Barring that, however, the only scenarios that could succeed are scenarios number 1 & 2.

And, as I have already noted, scenario #2 has already been destroyed by the GOPe, with Ted Cruz acting in full complicity.

Thus, conservatives' best hope is scenario #1, just like it has been for the last few months. It is the only scenario still possible that preserves voter enthusiasm, expands the GOP tent, and wipes out Hillary in the general election.

Since scenario #1 is itself becoming less likely now, IMHO, and due to the causes I've outlined, this leaves me with the inescapable conclusion that the GOPe has already screwed the pooch. The GOP will not win the White House in 2016 absent Trump at the top of the ticket. It could have won with Cruz possibly, but only in the case where Cruz remained an anti-Establishment candidate, and didn't adopt the Establishment tactics being used against Donald Trump. It's already too late for that, of course.

I'm convinced that the GOP will be content to remain in marginal power by controlling the House and perhaps still the Senate. That will allow them (with Hillary in the White House) to preserve the system as it is, where both parties scratch each other's backs, put up token opposition on various issues, and everybody just keeps enriching themselves at the expense of the People.

For doing what they have done, the GOP deserves to die a painful and lingering death. I, for one, am done with the Party, and will never register as a Republican again: not even to vote in their closed primaries. I'll stick with being a registered independent.

It saddens me very much to write these words, because, only a few short months ago, we had 2 candidates with the potential to lead a desperately-needed Revolution in American politics and culture.

But, alas, I believe it is not to be. The GOPe has overplayed their hand to the point where they have destroyed the party's chances for every possible scenario, except for the one case that appeared like it would happen: Donald Trump winning the nomination.

Now, Donald Trump bears some responsibility for this, as does Ted Cruz, for different reasons.

But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.

Yes, folks, I'm still hopeful that somehow something positive will come from the criminal and treasonous Establishment proceedings that we all have been watching before our very eyes. But I doubt it.

It looks like the Revolution will have to wait for at least another four years. That's good enough for the Establishment. As long as they can always delay the inevitable, the inevitable becomes impossible.

The hatred that I feel for the GOPe burns within me with a passion that will never die. Indeed, it only waxes stronger with each Machiavellian shenanigan they pull. It will be on full display at the GOP convention as well, of course.

I can't help but feel a profound sense of loss in looking at the state of affairs that we have arrived at.

No matter what happens at the convention, there will be large masses of GOP voters who will feel totally betrayed by the party leadership, and this will carry all the way through to the general election cycle.

All is lost, IMHO, and I say that as a realist, not a pessimist.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Conspiracy; History; Society
KEYWORDS: 2016election; donaldtrump; gope; tedcruz; vanity
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To: Stingray51

I would not be surprised if the US starting to split up within 10 to 20 years, if not sooner.


121 posted on 03/30/2016 7:25:34 PM PDT by LiveFree99
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To: dfwgator

I got it!!!!:

Trump/Romney 2016

Pure unity.


122 posted on 03/30/2016 7:26:07 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: JPJones
Trump ran to the independent party in 2000 and ended up with daisey Duke. ooops. I meant David Duke!
123 posted on 03/30/2016 7:26:10 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: JPJones
I got it!!!!: Trump/Romney 2016 Pure unity.


124 posted on 03/30/2016 7:27:34 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: fooman

Kasich would at least win Ohio, which the GOP nominee HAS to win in order to have any chance at all at getting elected.


125 posted on 03/30/2016 7:28:21 PM PDT by LiveFree99
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To: LiveFree99

Do you think we could get him to be postmaster general?


126 posted on 03/30/2016 7:29:14 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: LiveFree99

“Kasich would at least win Ohio, which the GOP nominee HAS to win in order to have any chance at all at getting elected.”

He’d be my VP pick.

It guarantees OH, and helps a lot for PA.


127 posted on 03/30/2016 7:32:07 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: Kit cat

I grant you that a solid ideological conservative like Cruz would have a tough race, and I also concede that Cruz is not terribly likable at times. He is a flawed candidate. I support Ted Cruz because he is the only consistent, ideological conservative in the race. Period.

I think Cruz has a tough road, but yes, he could defeat Hillary. Trump on the other hand is not only NOT a conservative, he has run one of the most ugly campaigns I can ever remember and has alienated just about...well...everyone. Trump has no path to victory at all in a general election, in fact I think he would lose in a landslide and take the Senate down with him.


128 posted on 03/30/2016 7:32:18 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: fooman

Kasich is not without some talent, so perhaps a suitable position in a Trump or Cruz administration could be found for him.


129 posted on 03/30/2016 7:33:25 PM PDT by LiveFree99
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To: LiveFree99
Rain Sleet or Snow will not stop kasich!
130 posted on 03/30/2016 7:34:46 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: JPJones

Yeah, hold our noses, select Kasich as Veep, and tell him he has one job: win Ohio. Pennsylvania and Michigan are probably out of reach but would be a nice bonus.


131 posted on 03/30/2016 7:36:00 PM PDT by LiveFree99
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To: af_vet_1981

“No Trump/Cruz ticket will be forthcoming.”

I agree. Trump has become so despised by so many Conservatives, especially talk show hosts that they would throw a fit if that happened. I think the GOPe will offer Cruz VP behind the rino candidate they choose. Unfortunately that is my prediction, and I think he would take it. ugh


132 posted on 03/30/2016 7:41:28 PM PDT by xenia ("In times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." George Orwell)
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To: LiveFree99

“Yeah, hold our noses, select Kasich as Veep, and tell him he has one job: win Ohio. Pennsylvania and Michigan are probably out of reach but would be a nice bonus.”

If Trump is prez, I could care less who the VP is.

And Kasich is such a lock for OH, it’d mean Hillary would have to spend Yuge amounts of time and money there and PA, while Trump is in FL and trying to steal MI.


133 posted on 03/30/2016 7:46:56 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: xenia

” I think the GOPe will offer Cruz VP behind the rino candidate they choose. Unfortunately that is my prediction, and I think he would take it. ugh”

I didn’t think of that, but now that you mention it, it seems a very likely outcome.


134 posted on 03/30/2016 7:48:12 PM PDT by JPJones
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To: sargon

Your analysis echoes my feelings. We are dead men walking. Incidentally, my evolution was from Walker -> Carson -> Cruz -> Trump. But any brokering of the convention is not acceptable to me. I am done, too. However, I may stay a lifelong Republican voter just to vote against every establishment Republican I can.


135 posted on 03/30/2016 7:48:56 PM PDT by XEHRpa
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To: xenia

Rush Hannity Savage and Laura I are all fine with Trump

Even Levin would get on board kicking and screaming if Cruz were VP.

No serious talk show host would argue against this ticket.


136 posted on 03/30/2016 7:51:34 PM PDT by fooman (Get real with Kin Jung mentally Ill about proliferation)
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To: sargon
Ted Cruz couldn't beat Donald Trump "fair and square". All he could do was jump on the GOPe character assassination bandwagon

See, this is where I believe you are just wearing the Trump blinders. Come on man, Trump has run the most nasty, distateful campaign in modern times. He has made a complete mockery of the GOP primary. His entire strategy has been to insult, belittle, tear down, smear, trash, etc, every other candidate in the race. He has taken Reagan's 11th commandment and turned it on its head. Instead of running on his own policies and avoiding attacking other Republicans, his entire campaign is based around attacking other Republicans. How on earth do you think he could ever unify the party after what he has done? And that doesn't even get to the general election problems he has having alienating pretty much every demographic except maybe white males.

Look, if Trump were a real conservative leading a movement that could stand the test of time I would be willing to get behind his candidacy even if I knew it would not win this time around. But Trump isn't a movement, he's not even a conservative. This is a one off for him and his policies, to the extent you can really define them, is populist protectionist with some nationalism mixed in. I'm sorry, but though I agree with some things Trump says, I mostly see him as an opportunist pretending to be a conservative to get what he wants at this moment in time.

Cruz is imperfect, no doubt. My biggest fear with him is that I don't really think he is terribly likable. But at least Cruz IS an ideological conservative and against that bag of bones Hillary, I think he can win. Trump I think would simply be blown out in a landslide and it would be a pointless loss since Trump represents nothing lasting.

The day Trump entered this race I knew it wouldn't end well. This man has divided the right of center in a way I've not seen in my lifetime. People that really like Trump, perhaps including yourself, seem to do so on a gut level. They don't care all that much about his policies because they support the man. The problem is, an ideological conservative like myself and millions of others just don't operate that way. We see Trump as more of a clownish figure who knows almost nothing about the Constitution, American history and the mistakes and missteps to be avoided, ideological conservatism with the goal of shrinking and devolving government back to the states, and on and on and on. Someone else I think said it on this thread or another. The chasm between the two sides here (Trump or Cruz) is so vast that arguing about it is almost pointless now. Trump supporters I think just like the guy on a gut level, Cruz supporters feel they are making the more logical choice. There doesn't seem to be a way to reconcile this.

Lastly, I will vote for Trump if he is the nominee. I hope he isn't because I don't like him and believe he will lose badly to Hillary, but I will suspend my dislike of the man long enough to cast a Trump vote if it comes to that. I hope you Trump people can do the same if Cruz is the nominee, but I've seen an awful lot of Trump supporters say they won't.

137 posted on 03/30/2016 7:53:28 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: sargon
I agree with your analysis, but not with your pessimism. The average Republican voter, regardless of who that voter supports, will vote for the Republican nominee. The average Republican voter is not a FReeper and scared to death regarding what a Hillary Clinton administration would do to this country. The average Republican voter is not politically suicidal and so will vote for the Republican nominee, even if that nominee is not that voter's first choice.

In the final analysis, there's one undeniable truth regarding the average Republican voter: he is much more anti-Hillary than pro-Republican-nominee and so will vote to keep Hillary out of the White House.

138 posted on 03/30/2016 7:56:42 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: sargon

Outstanding post #53


139 posted on 03/30/2016 7:58:48 PM PDT by XEHRpa
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To: CyberAnt

>>> I have not seen Cruz change his policies or change his method of campaigning.

1) Cruz took on Neil (brother of Jeb) Bush on his Finance team

2) Cruz took on Jeb’s complete finance team

3) Cruz blamed Chicago shutdown of Trump rally on Trump, not BLM/Soros.

4) Cruz explicitly (rather than tacitly) thanks each establishment endorsement as they come in.

5) Cruz PAC uses nudie photo of Melania to attack Trump in Utah.

It has only gone downhill from there...


140 posted on 03/30/2016 8:06:14 PM PDT by XEHRpa
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