Posted on 03/23/2016 7:17:07 AM PDT by Kaslin
Nominating Donald Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. Not nominating Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. The sooner everyone recognizes this fact, the better.
Denial has been Trump's greatest ally. Republicans and commentators didn't believe he would run. They didn't believe he could be an attractive candidate to rational people, no matter how angry with "the establishment" voters said they were. They -- which includes me -- were wrong.
The denial lasted longer for some than others. Long after many observers had come to the realization that Trump was the front-runner, Jeb Bush's super PAC, Right to Rise, believed Bush's real rival was Marco Rubio. It spent $35 million trying to destroy Rubio before it dropped its first $25,000 attacking Trump.
Over the weekend, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus showed the first public signs of acceptance about what's in store for the party. He finally acknowledged that the Republican nominee was probably going to be determined on the convention floor in Cleveland.
Priebus explained, rightly, that the rules are the rules, and that if Trump can't secure the required 1,237 delegates before Cleveland, it's anyone's game. "This is a delegate-driven process," he told CNN's Dana Bash. "The minority of delegates doesn't rule for the majority."
Trump's response to this floor-fight talk was to vomit up the usual word salad.
"All I can say is this, I don't know what's going to happen," Trump told ABC's "This Week." "But I will say this, you're going to have a lot of very unhappy people [if I'm denied the nomination]. And I think, frankly, for the Republicans to disenfranchise all those people because if that happens, they're not voting and the Republicans lose."
Even through the syntactical fog, Trump's point is clear: If he can't reach 1,237, he should get the nomination anyway. Because he is Trump. If that doesn't happen, his supporters will stay home, defect from the party, riot or all three.
And he's right. Not about deserving the nomination even if he doesn't have the delegates. That's typical Trumpian whining. But he's right that if he's denied the nomination, many -- not all, but many -- of his supporters will bolt from the convention and the party.
Left out of Trump's unsubtle threat: Many anti-Trump Republicans will desert the convention and the party if he's not denied the nomination.
There are only three possible ways to avoid a calamitous walkout. Ted Cruz can win the nomination outright before the convention. That's very unlikely given that he'd need to win roughly 80 percent of all the remaining delegates.
Second, Trump could reveal he has a hidden reservoir of magnanimity and patriotism, and rally his faithful to the consensus nominee. Stop laughing.
Third, the delegates could pick someone sufficiently attractive that Trump followers get over their understandable bitterness and support that candidate despite Trump's objections. Who would that be? Certainly not Mitt Romney. Maybe a reanimated Ronald Reagan. Or Batman? I have no idea.
All of these scenarios are so unlikely in part because the split in the GOP isn't merely about a single personality. Trump represents just the most pronounced of a spiderweb of ideological and demographic fault lines that are increasingly difficult to paper over. As Joel Kotkin put it in a column for the Orange County Register, the Republican Party now "consists of interest groups that so broadly dislike each other that they share little common ground."
Put simply, and with the incessant and obtuse comparisons of Trump to Reagan notwithstanding, you cannot have a party that's both Reaganite and Trumpish.
Trump's cheerleaders insist that he's a symptom of long-simmering maladies on the right. I'm persuaded (even though I think Dr. Trump's remedies are nothing but snake oil). Even now, too many GOP leaders think Trump's success is purely a result of his brash personality, and nothing more. But only when we accept that a terrible diagnosis is real is it possible to think intelligently about our options.
To wit: This ends in tears no matter what. Get over it and pick a side.
May I nominate you for the best, most thoughtful post of the week?
Thank you!
Fair enough, I’d probably agree with some of that. I don’t blame him about Megyn Kelly. She tried to torpedo his candidacy at the first debate, she was way out of line, completely biased, and he’s right to spend the rest of the campaign if not his entire Presidency looking to make her pay for it. She’s a hack, and she has no business being considered in the ranks of serious journalism. It also will not hurt Trump at all in the general election to be perceived of as independent from Fox News and Rupert Murdock. A lot of independents and Democrats dismiss those Republicans who only exist within that little protective bubble.
The Rubio thing also, I can’t believe that he gets blamed for that, when he was literally defending his “manhood” against Rubio’s “small hands” attack. Expecting a man to let that one slide off of him is a bit much in my book!
But yes, he does need to get at least some of the soccer mom vote and he isn’t doing a very good job of it so far. I’m very curious to see what Trump’s general election pivot will look like. It would of course be a bit easier for him do so if the Republican Party could unite behind him.
Should be interesting. I can’t tell what will happen. But it is fun to predict.
Goldberg’s general point has been that if Trump wins the nom, Hillary wins the election, and if Trump fails to win the nom, Hillary still wins the election. In each scenario, no one will unite at the level needed to win. At the moment, I think this is accurate. I hope it changes though.
Anyway, let’s have some fun and guess...
I think that Trump will not get to 1237, and that Cruz and Kasich will stay in until the convention. (Note, I’m probably wrong and starting in NY primary Trump will sweep and CA goes heavy Trump and it’s over. But the below scenario is more interesting to think through for me)
Step 1 at the convention will be to get rid of the rule requiring candidates on the ballot to have won 8 states. That rule is only 4 years old and will be tossed out by a vote, not a conniving cabal, but the same method convention and party rules are done normally.
Then there will be a chase by Trump to get the many unpledged delegates and to make a deal with Kasich about his delegates (some of which apparently can be reassigned, each state is different) and get to 1237.
If Trump gets to 1237 on the first ballot, he is the nominee. (obviously)
If Trump cannot get to 1237 on the first ballot, then the process is wide open (them’s the rules!) and then we’ll see if Trump the dealmaker participates in a negotiation with other candidates like Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio with delegates and some “yugely greeeat deeal” is found and everyone can be happy. My prediction is no, but this would be threading the needle.
Then after that we have a full open convention. It has happened before and the republic survived. Then all bets are off. I have no idea what would happen. Because a majority of the delegates are Trump and Cruz friendly, I cannot imagine a Romney or Bush type winning in an open convention. Maybe Perry or Walker?
Who would have predicted we’d be here? So there are probably many new things to come the next few months.
Interesting, thanks. We’re mostly in sync entirely. I’m starting to flag the comments that are out of line.
I’m in CA and will vote Cruz despite the risks he will not win the nomination and that he will get so slimed in the general that he won’t win that either.
I have a lot of like for Rubio because I remember how he arose. But the gang-of-eight was awful and thus I could only vote for him against a Dem and not when a Cruz or Perry would be on the ballot.
I’m in CA so illegal immigration has been a real issue for many, many years here. That many eastern and midwestern Republicans don’t see this as a security issue, a rule-of-law issue, and an economic issue is awful. And the Jeb Bush stuff on this issue was sickening.
It should be an interesting next few months. I am greatly dismayed because I see the potential for Hillary being prez in 2017 as very, very likely.
There was a time this neocon and his mommy were big wampum round these parts
Today it’s not hard to see how we all parted company is it?
How many current Freepers know the history of he and his mom here
I’m a Cruz voter myself, but Trump, when he’s 5 days cold in the ground, will be a better man than “O” on HIS best day!
They most certainly do not get it. (Even to the point of quoting Joel Kotkin as an authority on the republican party).
The party, “as we know it”, gave us Justice Roberts, and thus Obamacare. They gave us Justice Kennedy, and the gay marriage. They gave us Justice Souter, and thus the power of the government to take private property—not for public use, but to provide an enhanced tax base to the government.
They gave us promises, easily broken when it suited them. They gave us disdain for truly conservative candidates (including Senator Cruz, to whom they now gravitate in desperation). They lost their way and accepted former Trotskyites with open arms, while openly and proudly purging nationalist minded patriotic conservatives.
The author whines that the convention will “end in tears”. Well, many of us who have steadfastly supported both the party and conservative ideals for our entire adult lives read this with amusement. The party “as we know it” has ignored the tears of its faithful, lately proclaiming that “white communities (of a certain sort) have a moral duty to die.” Not much different than BLM, is it?
The party as we know it, has foisted upon us one losing candidate after another—Dole, McCain, Romney, and asked us to dutifully pull the lever, and we did. This year, they tried again, with a candidate named Jeb (they couldn’t even use his last name) though he polled miserably within the bulk of the party. They showed their willingness to gladly lose, happy to cede the White House to the disastrous left rather than support a candidate who places America first. Foiled, they act like 4 year olds having a tantrum, and now rend their clothes and threaten to torpedo the process which they have all along insisted we follow.
The party, as we know it, now behaves like Al Gore, plotting and conniving to steal an honest election, turning on a candidate who might, just might, actually deliver on promises made to us over decades. This is not because they fear that he is not a conservative—neither, at heart, was Dole, McCain, or Romney. They cluck, scream, and fret, because Trump threatens them, and what they regard as “their” party.
Well, voters are proving that it is their party, too, Mr. Goldberg, whether you and Mr. Kristol and Mr. Will like it or not. The party had a conservative candidate that ostensibly met all of the requirements for support—Senator Cruz. But of court the party elite mocked and marginalized him, showing again that they were interested not in conservatism at all, but rather in maintaining control. This is “the party as we know it.”
The party “as we know it” created Mr. Trump, and he now stands as the answer to those of us fed up with the lies, chicanery, and fecklessness.
While I would certainly support Senator Cruz should he honestly become the nominee, my candidate is Mr. Trump, without reservation. He, Mr. Goldberg, has caused all the masks to come off, and has shown a willingness to fight, and for that he has my thanks, and my vote.
If Hillary wins, I'm not preparing for the 2020 or 2024 elections. If she wins, I'm preparing for the collapse of freedom and the fundamental and permanent transformation of this country into something unrecognizable, whether that transformation is by her plan or in a revolt against her plan.
Yes to everything you said.
I’m a “Trump voter”, not necessarily a “Trump supporter”.
I have lots of reasons not to vote for him.
But I have even more reasons not to vote for his opponents.
I’m tired of “Meet the new boss; same as the old boss”.
Worth reposting anyway.
Both spot on: Dennis Prager: 2 irreconcilable Americas
Jonah Goldberg: 2 irreconcilable GOPs
"...you cannot have a party that's both Reaganite and Trumpish. . .Get over it and pick a side."
Yes, stick with sleazy politicians, you are so effing brilliant.
Buzz off, chubby boy. You mean nothing anymore.
Does this mean we’re all automatically damned to Hell yet again, or is there a grace period first...?
Looks like some of them, following Cruz’s vacations, are trickling back and still looking for a fight. Sad.
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