Posted on 03/18/2016 4:29:04 AM PDT by Arthur Wildfire! March
Time and again Ted Cruz slammed the door in his own face. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has the Midas Touch of politics.
One recent national poll showed Trump at 53% support by republicans. Whether true or not, trending will continue to look better for Trump if nothing serious changes -- from both parties and independents.
Eight points.
The first point is a little 'numbers crunching'. The rest point out choices Trump and Cruz made during the primary.
Point 1: Ohio.
True, Trump only came in second. But he he took on a wildly popular governor in his own state.
Trump got 700,000 votes.
Hillary won with 666,000 votes.
To defeat Trump in Ohio, Hillary needs to steal hundreds of thousands of Kasich supporters. Is that even possible? In most states she will have an even tougher challenge.
Point 2: Trump is the ONLY Republican who ever turned the tables on the 'war on women'. [Cruz said that kind of thing is off the table.]
Point 3: Trump's trade policy will be wildly popular. [Cruz opposes.]
Point 4: Trump's muslim ban is a strong net gain of support. He's been poaching democrats ever since. [Cruz opposes.]
Point 5: No republican has been more effective than Trump when it comes to exposing rent-a-mob thuggery. In Illinois that gave him strong support as well as his surprising support in Missouri. Even if a recount hands Missouri to Cruz, he was supposed to be the clear winner there. [By blaming Trump, this was the worst political error Cruz ever inflicted on himself.]
Point 6: On immigration, Trump is arguably as strong as Cruz. That was supposed to be the key to Cruz winning this primary. Trump managed to steal it from him, and he will own that issue in the general election.
Point 7: In a poll last year, Jack Baur was America's favorite choice to be President. So who is closest to Jack Baur? The one who promises to waterboard? Or the one who refuses to discuss it? Trump approves of waterboarding, and Cruz ducks that particular issue.
~~~
Now for the point that 'Trumps' Cruz completely ...
~~~
Point 8: A path to the Convention is nothing without a path to Party Unity.
*
I repeat: A path to the Convention is nothing without a path to Party Unity.
*
There's no path to party unity if Cruz somehow 'out-conventions' Trump.
I heard Jamie Dupree [daily Hannity guest] talk about how delegates are selected. Positively byzantine.
Does anyone expect Trump supporters to understand if the front runner is taken out via a convention struggle?
Farewell to Party Unity.
Fortunately for the party, Cruz himself hallowed out his support and softened resistance against Trump via points two through eight. If Cruz remains serious about damaging Trump, by the time of the convention the only 'excitement' for Cruz will be Grahamnesty astro-turf and a handful of jeddi knights.
Only one clear path to party unity -- we must back the front-runner.
~~~
Counter Point
Only one counter-point -- polling. Hillary is 'projected' to defeat Trump. His current negatives are high.
All of that early polling mean next to nothing. November is a long way off, and the dynamics of points two-through-eight are what matters.
~~~
One Last Point
Perhaps most important of all -- Trump self-funds. The 757 that jets him around is HIS jet while the donor class feels his engines' blowback.
I agree with Pat Buchanan.
A real drum-beating is about to commence. Trump is going to not only defeat Hillary but slice open the DNC and rip out its entrails.
Cruz can either be a part of it, or he can find new ways to injure his own face with a door.
Why so bitter?
My dad, a former democrat, is thrilled that Trump spoke out against the Iraq war.
So I could just sit back and feel old baggage slip away, at least for the time being. Trump refused to buy Bush baggage.
[I had supported taking out Saddam but never wanted a serious nation-building occupation. I only felt politically obligated to support GW’s nation-building.]
Don’t know if bitterness is the right word. I suspect after the nomination-if it is Trump-the most vigorous campaigner coast to coast in the general for him besides himself will be Ted Cruz. Yet on FR its all derision all the time. Unwarranted.
Sorry, set my browser to ignore images. Only way I can navigate. But I could imagine.
Trump has inspired record turnout while the DNC sucks canal water.
Great post; great thread.
HOORAY Trump
Trump is too self centered to bow out and support Cruz to defeat Hillary.
Cruz has another choice — kiss McConnell’s ring.
He chose not to make waves. That’s why he was the invisible candidate.
Cruz doesn’t need to worship any mortal, Trump included.
But he ought to quit shooting himself in the foot. Like Barney Fife, he needs one bullet for his pocket.
I just don’t buy this often repeated notion that Trump can’t possibly beat Hillary. The 2016 election will be a mirror image of the 2012 election. Mitt Romney was a lousy politician and mediocre campaigner who inspired no enthusiasm. The election was decided by unmotivated Republicans not bothering to vote.
This time around Hillary is the horrifyingly bad campaigner who inspires no enthusiasm. The voters she’s counting on to put her over the finish line will sleep in on election day.
The people don’t want another foreigner as prez.
Boom....explains it in spades.
Can’t disagree at all.
L
I agree.
If Bush were going to go after a regime over there after 9/11, IMO he should have gone for Iran and it’s toppling—without the subsequent nation building.
Oh, well. But I agree. Trump is a much needed astringent to help was the Bush stain from the GOP.
I think there is a critical mass of racial minorities in the US who can and will judge Trump sufficiently on his own and thus not fall for the usual Leftist “racist” and “Hitler” calls. That will be another tipping point in a reborn GOP’s favor.
That’s some useful thinking and framing.
Trump RAIDED media time. Cruz could have done the same thing. He could have flown to Berlin for example and confronted muslim refugees and agreed with Trump’s ban. He could have done something similar with London when Parliament voted on whether to ban Trump.
Of course the media will try to destroy Trump. Let’s see. They tried to blame him for the Chicago rally. They reported that he was pro-KKK. So you tell me — how worse can it get?
“A lot of Cruz supporters and other Real Conservatives might sit at home next election than vote for Trump.”
Some will. Sure. And if Trump is ousted at the convention? Tens of millions will.
“Plus I think there was a sizable amount of people who voted for Trump that were democrats and will switch back in the General election.”
A sizable number of democrats are sick of their own party.
Obvious.
“Trump is just a sideshow freak ...”
That was the very thinking Cruz had about him. How’s that going? Courage is often belittled as foolish, especially by the GOP-e. Too much of that rubbed off on Cruz.
If Obama wants to pardon her, I would find that very interesting.
Then the states could call for an excoriation hearing, amend the constitution, and do a number on them both.
Excellent points in the OP! Other than Trump being a hundred x tougher on immigration than Cruz, I agree with everything you said. As to the Mozart movie, it was Salieri who was portrayed as green with envy...but who’s counting?
:)
More on Vanities...
Funny. When I first showed up, I came from a bulletin board. It was a street fight.
Started posting here not knowing what a vanity was or any understanding of FR decorum.
I got learned up real quick. I see myself in some of the newbies and I’m careful not to be too harsh.
...and even with all I have to say (good or bad) you’ll only see 1 or 2 vanities out of me per year just out of respect for this sight, the great people who visit it and the fact my thoughts are not typically unrepresented.
Keep on Truckin’ Arthur!
Go Trump Go!
The lion refuses to bow before the fox.
Front runner: lion.
Fox: seeks to unravel the bound delegates.
It is more natural for the fox to respect the lion.
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