Posted on 03/16/2016 11:10:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is not an argument for what should happen or what I’d like to happen in the November presidential election, but about what would likely happen in a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race: Clinton would win, and probably by a wide margin.
I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.
Even if you add up everyone who has attended a Trump rally, that’s only a tiny fraction of total voters in a presidential general election. In both 2008 and 2012, there were about 130 million voters in those presidential elections. And the difference between a turnout in a primary and general election is great. For example, Trump won both the South Carolina and Michigan primaries, but in the general election in those states there will likely be twice as many voters as the number that voted in the primary (counting both Republican and Democratic primary voters).
You could look at head-to-head polls to predict an outcome. Real Clear Politics has nearly 50 polls going back several months which polls a Trump-Clinton race, and Trump has small leads in only five of those polls. In the last month, Clinton’s advantage has been just over 6 points.
But months remain until the election, and there will be barrages of ads trashing candidates.
So how do people choose whom they are voting for? For those people who identify with a political party, party identification is the most important factor. For example, in the 2012 race, 92 percent of Democrats supported Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supported Romney. And in 2008 it was similar with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supporting McCain.
Obama and Romney in 2012 and Obama and McCain in 2008 came very close to splitting the independents in both of those elections. So what was the difference? There were more people who identified as a Democrat than as a Republican (according to Gallup). Right now, according to Gallup, Democrats have only a slight advantage when it comes to party identification, so that’s good news for the eventual Republican nominee.
So if party identification is a very important predictor of voter choice, then the way to victory is to get your party to vote for you, win half or more of the independents, and try to peel away some voters from the other party.
But can Trump get nearly all of those who identify as a Republican? I can’t think of any candidate in recent history who generates such strong dislike from some members of his party.
Trump and his supporters can claim that nearly all of the party will come around to support him in the fall, but that seems implausible. Still, assume that most Republicans would come around to support Trump. Even getting 80 percent of Republicans would put him in a difficult position to win.
But Trump claims that he’s drawing independents and Democrats. But the polling suggests it’s going to be very hard for him get enough independents and Democrats to win in the fall. A January poll from Gallup indicated that Trump had the worst favorability ratings among any Republican candidates among independents and Democrats. Trump was net -27 among independents (that is, his unfavorability rating was 27 points higher than his favorability rating) and -70 among Democrats. No other Republican was so far underwater with non-Republicans. It’s not enough to get some independents and Democrats. For Trump to win, he gets a majority of independents and at least 20 percent of Democrats.
Trump, the businessman, should understand you need a plan for winning. In presidential politics you need a plan for winning a majority of electoral votes because there’s only one winner. Attracting a dedicated minority of voters wins no prize.
The Trump campaign is like one of those outlandish business ideas, like personal travel to the moon, that has some potential customers, but it doesn’t have a winning business plan.
On the other hand, lots of democrats have been/will be voting for Trump.
I hope so.
This is a transformative ticket and the only ticket that will save us at this point.
Here we go again.
In November, the unproductive and unemployed 47% of the American population will turn out to vote Democrat and vote multiple times in order to keep the “free stuff” coming, but, alas, many of the remaining 53% of Americans won’t feel they have a “Dog in this fight” and won’t be able to work voting into their busy schedule, or they will come up with an excuse for not voting like, “I ain’t votin’ for no dayum Mormon, Catholic, Cuban, etc. etc.,” and we’ll wind up with a Democrat President for another eight years.
Ever heard of “tongue in cheek”?
Because everyone knows the Democrats vote for their candidate with slavish loyalty, and they have a predictable lock on a large number of electoral votes due to their control of the big city political machines.
Democrats have the luxury of basically being able to “phone it in”, and still win against the average Republican opponent. Republicans, on the other hand, have the uphill battle. They have to do better than they’ve done in the last few election cycles, either increase turnout a lot, or win over new voters, or they can’t win.
Polls are usually right a few days before the election. Six months before, not so much.
Trump will never run And if he does his ceiling will be 5%.
Who is Michael Coulter and what is TD?
What you said, exactly! The insiders on the DC Gravy Train are beside themselves, because if Trump wins, they’ll have to get a real job.
Just looking at the vote number totals on CNN last night (FOX reported only percentages, shame on them), the total votes for the Republican candidates outnumbered the total votes for the Democrat candidates.
That, and reports of places running out of ballots and new switchovers from (D) to (R) may be a sign that the (D) party is going to have a huge problem on their hands come the General Election..
Even considering many (R) voters say they would rather sit home than vote for Trump, if he is the nominee. That’s what 6 million (R) voters did in 2012, refusing to vote for Romney, and we got another 4 years of (O)
If they do this again, we’ll have to listen to Hillary’s screeching for at least another four.............................Better count the silverware........................
Trump beats Hillary and it wouldn’t be close.
The PTB may take their chances with Kasich, Ryan, Romney or Hillary.
That’s their wish, if they have the guts.
In Congress and the news media there are but no one really knows with the general public...A lot of things will happen by Nov...
Really. Romney has serious unfavorables in his party. As did McCain, who only overcame those by selecting Palin as his running mate.
The problem is, to the pundits, this time the Republicans who are appalled are the squishes - you know, the good Republicans who like compromising with Dems.
The whole GOPe is smaller than one of Trump's rallies.
That's the leadership that doesn't want a patriotic candidate. The mid level bosses and hacks don't care about issues or ideas, they just want the GOP nominee - whoever he is - to win. 98% of Republicans who do the ground game work in campaigns will come around. The rest can go work for Hillary if they want. It won't make any difference.
Recently I’ve been hearing a lot of anti-Trump sentiment from women co-workers and friends, quite unlike anything I can remember experiencing about any candidate. One long-time friend, a moderate Bush Republican type, even wrote on FB that one minute of a Trump presidency would be worse than four years of Hillary. Note that these are not welfare queens or spoiled trust fund types; these are successful women with children and careers. I fear that this anti-Trump sentiment coupled with the chance to make history with “the first woman President” could put Hillary in the White House.
Ha.
Of course Trump will win a general election, he’ll easily take 20% of the democratic base... All Trump needs to win is 4% more white voters than Romney got, or in other words the same turnout as McCain and he wins. He’ll get this easily.
This “republicans” will stay home if Trump is the nominee is just hogwash.
Exit polling done last night showed it, they asked every single person on the republican side, if your guy doesn’t win and this guy does will you definitely support, propbably support or never support the other candidates... all by name... and guess what?
The results were all the same, regardless of who you supported, and who they named as the other guy... the numbers were the same for Trump from a Rubio, Kasich or Cruz supporter as they were for a Rubio from a Kasich, Trump or Cruz supporter.... The numbers were virtually identical no matter which candidate the person voted for and which candidate they named as the alternative.
So this, if Trump wins folks won’t vote is garbage... its establishment hype and nothing more, like most of the anyone but Trump garbage.
Trump has shown he has the broadest base of support in every exit poll conducted. Tuesday night Cruz had the “Experience Matters” vote, that’s about it.... or in other words, the traditional “establishment” voter. That’s the only segment I think he lead in any significant way.
Trump has the broadest support, is attracting Democrats that have been abandoned by the democratic party as it races toward, men in dresses are the most pressing fight of our time.... In PA over 46,000 democrats have switched parties.. in MA over 20,000 in just one district did. The people who the democrats have abandoned to race toward their liberal insanity are coming to the Republicans because of Trump.
Trump will break open the absolutely stupid election model that Rove created with 43 and the republicans have limited themselves to ever since. Where most of the country is split and the campaigns fight a GOTV effort in a handful of states and basically try to offend no one and stand for nothing.
Trump will win states in the Mid Atlantic and upper midwest, he’s going to win states in the North East, and even be competitive on the west coast. The EC map of the last 4 cycles will be dead after Trump, and thank God for it.
Trump is going to take 20% of the Democratic base in the general, and easily capture 60-70% of the independent vote as well. It won’t be a 1984, but it will be a crushing defeat for the Democrats... if only the republican leadership will get the hell out of the way, and realize they are out of touch and out of time.
“Your model is flawed. Romney won the independent vote in 2012, and still lost.”
Because Romney was incompetent, his GOTV effort was a complete failure, he didn’t even get the same number of republicans to the polls that McCain did!
Literally, if Romney would have just gotten as many Republicans to show up as McCain did 4 years earlier he would have been president. Trump is absolutely right when he says Romney choked and republicans should have won in 12.
You mean they won’t vote for Hillary because of her long list of accomplishments?......................
They’ll change their tune once Trump is officially the nominee and he reminds them of Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky, Juanita Broaddrick, Jennifer Flowers, and the dozens of other women that Clinton destroyed to protect her power....
Trump won’t sit by and not bring that up, Clinton tries the anti woman line, Trump will beat her to a bloody pulp politically over it... He’s already given her her warning if she tries it...
Same here. He is an orange weirdo that goes on pro-wrestling and reality TV dog squeeze when he doesn’t have to, but just because he likes it or something. I mean come on that’s pretty damn bizarre. But, to be fair, anyone who wants to president in 2016 has to have something really wrong with them. But I don’t see any reason he can’t win it. Some things point to him possibly winning it easily, at least in my opinion.
Freegards
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