I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win.
Let me just say that Trump will win.
Posted on 03/16/2016 11:10:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is not an argument for what should happen or what I’d like to happen in the November presidential election, but about what would likely happen in a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race: Clinton would win, and probably by a wide margin.
I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.
Even if you add up everyone who has attended a Trump rally, that’s only a tiny fraction of total voters in a presidential general election. In both 2008 and 2012, there were about 130 million voters in those presidential elections. And the difference between a turnout in a primary and general election is great. For example, Trump won both the South Carolina and Michigan primaries, but in the general election in those states there will likely be twice as many voters as the number that voted in the primary (counting both Republican and Democratic primary voters).
You could look at head-to-head polls to predict an outcome. Real Clear Politics has nearly 50 polls going back several months which polls a Trump-Clinton race, and Trump has small leads in only five of those polls. In the last month, Clinton’s advantage has been just over 6 points.
But months remain until the election, and there will be barrages of ads trashing candidates.
So how do people choose whom they are voting for? For those people who identify with a political party, party identification is the most important factor. For example, in the 2012 race, 92 percent of Democrats supported Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supported Romney. And in 2008 it was similar with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supporting McCain.
Obama and Romney in 2012 and Obama and McCain in 2008 came very close to splitting the independents in both of those elections. So what was the difference? There were more people who identified as a Democrat than as a Republican (according to Gallup). Right now, according to Gallup, Democrats have only a slight advantage when it comes to party identification, so that’s good news for the eventual Republican nominee.
So if party identification is a very important predictor of voter choice, then the way to victory is to get your party to vote for you, win half or more of the independents, and try to peel away some voters from the other party.
But can Trump get nearly all of those who identify as a Republican? I can’t think of any candidate in recent history who generates such strong dislike from some members of his party.
Trump and his supporters can claim that nearly all of the party will come around to support him in the fall, but that seems implausible. Still, assume that most Republicans would come around to support Trump. Even getting 80 percent of Republicans would put him in a difficult position to win.
But Trump claims that he’s drawing independents and Democrats. But the polling suggests it’s going to be very hard for him get enough independents and Democrats to win in the fall. A January poll from Gallup indicated that Trump had the worst favorability ratings among any Republican candidates among independents and Democrats. Trump was net -27 among independents (that is, his unfavorability rating was 27 points higher than his favorability rating) and -70 among Democrats. No other Republican was so far underwater with non-Republicans. It’s not enough to get some independents and Democrats. For Trump to win, he gets a majority of independents and at least 20 percent of Democrats.
Trump, the businessman, should understand you need a plan for winning. In presidential politics you need a plan for winning a majority of electoral votes because there’s only one winner. Attracting a dedicated minority of voters wins no prize.
The Trump campaign is like one of those outlandish business ideas, like personal travel to the moon, that has some potential customers, but it doesn’t have a winning business plan.
Jeb was much more favored, a near certainty, even amongst odds makers, until Trump fired full broadsides at him. the first volley staggered Jeb, and several more took him right out of the race, an unthinkable occurrence at the start of the primary season. Hillary has so many skeletons, and so much ugliness that other candidates have dared not point out for fear of reprisal... but Trump will. It is not about increasing Trump’s image, it is about utterly and ruthlessly exposing and destroying the Clinton cartel.
Lol, unlike previous elections this time the base will turn out in huge numbers. Enthusiasm among Rep is double that of Dems and the reason is dems don’t want Hillary. She has been forced on them and they neither like nor trust her.
LIAR
DISHONEST
UNTRUSTWORTHY
Three words most often used to describe Clinton and Trump has yet to start on her awful record.
Like why are so many “republican” in the “media” always are preemptive surrender monkeys who never even try to fight but simply argue that Republican should preemptively surrender to the Dems?
Maybe because they aren’t really Republicans at all?
“The Trump campaign is like one of those outlandish business ide”
Yeah....one that nets 10 BILLION, please
LOL!
RE: Where was this analysis for Romney, McCain, Dole, etc?
None of them the way I look at it. I think the author is trying to look at the dynamics of the race CLINICALLY.
Like it or not, there are enough GOPe out there who won’t support Trump.
As the author observes, Trump and his supporters can claim that nearly all of the party will come around to support him in the fall, but that seems implausible. Still, assume that most Republicans would come around to support Trump. Even getting 80 percent of Republicans would put him in a difficult position to win. Trump has to get upwards of 90% of the GOP to vote for him in the general if Hillary gets the same percentage of Democratic votes.
August 2015: "Okay, so he looks like he's taking this seriously, but wait until the debates."
October 2015: "Yeah, okay. He did well in the debates, but there's no way he's going to win once the primaries start."
December 2015: "He's leading polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina? Yeah, that doesn't mean anything."
March 2016: "Yeah, he's done great in the primaries, but there's no way he'll win the general election....."
RE: Yeah....one that nets 10 BILLION, please
Many financial analysts claim that he overstates it by over 100%.
RE: June 2015: “Yuck, yuck, yuck. No, we don’t take Trump seriously. He’ll drop out in a couple of weeks.”
Who was saying that?
And ignores the fact that the “Fraction” is a very very very large polling sample based on people actual actions so he can cling to emotion based argument based on polling a much much much smaller fraction of voter that happen to validate his emtion based “hat e Trump Always” opinions
I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win.
Let me just say that Trump will win.
“You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.”
Waste of breath to tell Trump supporters stuff like this. It just doesn’t compute for them.
I don't see Trump changing these numbers. There's a reason politicians are careful how they compare and contrast their positions from their opponents positions and avoid personally denigrating opponents. Trump believes the rules don't apply to him and he can just change and people will forget. People won't forget, his opponents will make sure of it.
Go look right now at how they match up in the primaries
Be fair
Recognize that Hillary has one opponent
Trump has been battling many
Compare Trumps popular vote to that of Cruz
Compare Cruz’s popular vote to that of Hillary
Assess how well Cruz will do when the democrats unleash a “palinization” campaign of endless often groundless but expensive and time consuming lawsuits against Cruz
Everything from eligibility suits to Senate ethics charges from Texas democrats to attacks on his PACs
Thankfully for trump he is pretty immune from this stuff and has the money to fight back
Again another emotional based optinion without a the slightest hint of fact to back it up
“Many Freepers” think you are an idiot. Should we agree with them because “many Freepers” say so?
There you have it. If he can cut a better deal with Romney’s 47%ers on government life support who don’t care a whit about trade, illegals or finding a job, he can win without us nut cases who still believe God hates child sacrifice and sodomy in the streets.
Trump has been very busy fighting for first place among 17 other candidates. That has consumed much more time than der Hildebeast, who has only had to rise to the top of four, Webb, Chaffe, O’Mally, and Sanders. She seems to have a free ride with everything, like some kind of royalty.
So, it is time for the Trump campaign to start the attack on der Royal Highness, der Hildebeast. It is time to press the reset button on her efforts to paint Trump into a corner.
Ding! Ding! All aboard the Trump Train!
Why did he not approach the question as...Can Hillary win a general election? She sure has a tough time in primaries.
“Donald Trump took you up in a speech today about Common Core and immigration. I want to ask you—,” Hannity, a Fox News personality, said before he was cut off by Bush’s chuckling."
Fox News, Feb 20, 2016
“... allowed 4 heroes to languish and die in Benghazi...”
.
She said that zero Americans were lost in the Libyan affair
The vote totals show your statement nonsense.
Trump started with a 67% never vote for” number in July 2015.
Why is he winning now?
Face it, you all are ignoring the real data to cling to an emotion based opinion
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