Posted on 03/16/2016 10:54:21 AM PDT by ConservingFreedom
You ever feel like you dont know exactly how to interpret an election night? Thats how I feel about the Republican side of the aisle after Tuesday. Donald Trump won at least three of the five states that voted on Tuesday, including Florida. (Were still waiting on a call in Missouri, but Trump leads.) Marco Rubio ended his campaign. John Kasich stayed alive by winning Ohio. Given that Trump likely won every state except for the home state of another candidate, it has to be considered a good night for him. And yet, the main question are we going to a contested convention? remains unanswered.
The good news for Trump is that he won the most delegates on Tuesday, and was able to make up for the 66 delegates he lost in Ohio by winning Illinois and likely Missouri, which could bring as many as 95 delegates, depending on how the district allocation shakes out.
Moreover, Trump performed strongly in all the states that voted Tuesday. He won 36 percent of the vote in Ohio, 39 percent in Illinois, 40 percent in North Carolina, 41 percent in Missouri and 46 percent in Florida. His average performance was 40.3 percent. Thats far above his average 34.6 percent that he had on March 1. Granted, the states that voted tonight were different than the states that voted two weeks ago, but there isnt any sign that Trumps support is falling. If anything, these results suggest it may be somewhat rising.
The bad news for Trump is pretty clear: even with a Missouri win, he would still have won only a little more than 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. Moreover, hell need to win a little more than 54 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. Thats certainly possible given there are several winner-take-all states to come, and Trump may do well in big East Coast states such as New York and New Jersey. Trump is also in a good position in Arizona, a winner-take-all state that votes next Tuesday.
Still, there are plenty of ways the delegate math can go haywire for him. My own delegate estimate has Trump falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs because he has done poorly in the west so far, and many of those states havent voted yet. Its also possible that Kasich plays better than we might think among moderate voters in the remaining states to vote in New England and Mid-Atlantic.
Moreover, there are plenty of signs that Trump would have lost a majority of states that voted on Tuesday had Rubio not been in the race. Im talking about Missouri and North Carolina, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in a one-on-one race in the exit polls. Trump may be rising, though he is still not getting close to a majority of the vote in most states. If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate, they probably can beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests.
When you put it all together, I think the result on Tuesday can best be defined as messy. Trump is likely to have a plurality of delegates after all the contests have finished up on June 7. But a majority? We still dont know.
Huh? What planet does this come from and could you give us your stock choices so we could get rich betting against them?
Without OH Trump’s path got a little harder, instead of only 45% of the outstanding proportional/hybrid delegates, he needs 55% (assuming he gets AZ, NJ and DEL)... but its hardly impossible..
Look at MO, that’s about as razor thin as you can get and Trump still is going to likely have 61.5% of the state delegates when its all said and done... And MO is about the farthest east Cruz will be competitive. He’ll probably get the rest of the western states, but he’s not going to play any better than he did in MO anyplace east... and that’s being generous.
Kasich is a non starter, he may peel some votes from Cruz, heck he might even pull out a surprise somewhere, but there is no way he’s going to stop Trump from winning most of the remaining states and thus gaining the majority of the delegates. Yes 55% is tougher than 45% but this idea that Trump can’t get that on average going into the states that are remaining is hardly impossible.
In a 3 way race, its almost certain Trump will win most of the states left, the only question is the size of the win. And remember, depending on how states allocate delegates, the wins don’t have to be by large margins to equate to large delegate percentage differences... as I pointed out before MO is about as skin of your teeth as you can get, and assuming trump gets at least 1 of the 3 outstanding districts, he winds up with 61.5% of the states delegates.
Time will tell, but the idea that he can’t reach 1237 is a bit premature.
Another indication last night was that Cruz’s support in states that should have been his base fell sharply after hiring Neil Bush and condemning Trump for the violent Muslim, Communist, illegal alien, and #Blacklivesmatter thugs attacking his rallies.
I’m in same the boat - ME. I will write Cruz in as well.
Where has this idea been expressed? Not in the article or on this thread.
“give us your stock choices so we could get rich betting against them”
You can get rich betting on Trump here: http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=481890 Let us know how much money you put where your mouth is.
“he had won Missouri which is HUGE since Trump got a TON of delegates from that win.”
37 to Cruz’ 15 if this count holds up: https://www.sos.mo.gov/CMSImages/ElectionResultsStatistics/1230AMCandidateTotalsbyCongressionalDistrict-withnumbers.pdf
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