Posted on 03/06/2016 2:37:18 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
The Louisiana state GOP announced the current estimated delegate breakdown: Ted Cruz and Donald Trump both get 18, Marco Rubio gets 5. How is this possible, when Trump got more votes? Well, the popular vote count statewide was effectively a two-man race, as only Trump and Cruz got above 20%. Those at-large delegates (28 total) went 12 for Trump, 11 for Cruz, 5 unbound. But! Louisiana has 6 Congressional Districts, and each gets 3 delegates (18 total). In five of those districts the state GOP is unofficially calling it as Cruz, Rubio, and Trump all getting 1 delegate... except in LA-05, where Cruz gets 2 and Trump gets 1. Thus, the current score is 18-18, with 5 for Rubio and the other 5 officially unaffiliated*.
All of this, by the way, will be the subject of much vigorous debate and discussion in Louisiana political circles over the next week, which probably means that there's going to be a brawl at the upcoming state convention.
Still: if you thought that Donald Trump's awful, no-good night was at least over for him, rest assured: it's not. The universe itself conspires to come back to the tableau* of his humiliation and dump one last small, yet stinking, dollop of embarrassment on his head. As it stands now, the guy didn't even win the delegate count in Louisiana. He could only manage to tie with Ted Cruz, a man who Trump just recently described as "L-I-E-N." Perhaps he meant "lion?" It's so hard to tell, with that particular dude.
Moe Lane
PS: If you were ever wondering what good a professional campaign organization can do for a candidate, it's this: it can take a state where the polls had a candidate down by 15 points on Election Day, and turn it into a state where the candidate tied for first in the delegate count. And perfectly ethically, too! The rules are the rules, and they're perfectly reasonable ones; it's nobody's fault except Trump and his campaign's if they didn't actually read them, and Ted Cruz's people did. Welcome to the big leagues...
*The Republican party doesn't really use super-delegates to the override-the-will-of-the-voters extent that the Democrats do, but the party has a few.
**Well, you know. Louisiana. French. It seemed like a good word to use, under the circumstances.
I always try very hard to not name drop, nor talk about my real life, but sometimes I feel compelled to.
The Latin School of Chicago is an elite private day school. Nancy Davis went there. She came to Latin a few times. My kiddo went to that school and I always worked on charity events and things like SPORTS DAY. It is just what it is. *shrugs*
The reality is that Trump has received 500,000 more votes than Cruz so far. If we go to a brokered convention, both the number of delegates and the total votes will be significant as to who should be selected.
So far there have been 843 delegates awarded. Puerto Rico will add another 23 today. There are a total of 2473 delegates at stake. Cruz has 300 and Trump has 382. There are 1,607 delegates left to be awarded. This Tuesday, another 150 will be awarded proportionately.
On March 15, another 367 delegates be awarded with four being winner take all, i.e., FL (99), OH (66), IL (69), and the Northern Marianas (9). NC (72) and MO (52) are proportional. So by the end of the day, there will be just 1090 remaining.
If Trump takes either FL, OH, or IL, it will be very difficult for anyone to catch him. He could be stopped from receiving the needed 1,237 but he will be very close to that total with the states of NY and NJ coming up. Kasich could take OH, PA, and possibly MI (proportional), but he has no path to 1,237 nor does Rubio even if he wins FL.
Cruz would have to do much better than he is doing now. Can he win FL or IL or OH? He needs to win 937 delegates out of the 1,607 remaining? Trump needs to win 855. Who gets the winner take all states will change the math.
All I can get from greenpapers is Trump and Cruz. I have no idea about Rubio.
Trump 13,262 41.891%
Cruz 13,547 42.792%
The CDs can be extrapolated from the parishes, I guess, but that’s too much work. I haven’t found a site yet that is just using simple HTML to load the vote data.
My guess is that it’s CD6 where Cruz got the extra vote. All the rest look around an 80% Trump/Cruz combined vote +/- 1% either way.
I think that if this goes to a brokered convention, I suspect it is all about what the 3rd and possibly 4th guy do and who they side with.
Just HOW OLD are you ?
The issue is that no rounding rule is specified. I suspect that one of the CDs, probably 6, gave the extra, unearned, delegate to the top vote getter as a way of rounding.
They will all side against Trump.
Reagan had friends on both sides of the isle. How many friends does Ted have? I count Glenn Beck.
No it isn’t. After the 1st round, the delegates are free to do as they please.
Agreed. Although its curious that the other CDs wouldn’t go the same way. I isolated on CD6 because the rounding there makes sense, even if the vote difference was minimal. Rubio was probably held down under 10% there.
Cruz won CD-3 by more, but Trump won CD-1 by a heck of a bigger margin over Cruz.
One thing is certain, Cruz is NOT Reaganesque.
Reagan would be considered a lib by most people around here. LOL
I’ve researched this extensively. Every proof offered by the pro-Cruz people here does not stand up to scrutiny or common sense. If the courts take an honest look at this, and they NEVER HAVE at the appellate level, Cruz, and the conservative movement will be shown to be a fraud.
Nooo comment from any Cruz campaign or supportes...
It makes sense if Rubio got a larger percentage of the vote where Cruz was hammered. I used to live in Louisiana. Interesting place, but it has odd politics. Probably they left the rounding up to the officials in that CD.
A common tactic in business, in sports, in politics is to claim to be the victor when the decision has not yet been decided.
Then intimidate people into not waiting for, or looking at the actual results.
Gore did that in 2000. Trump did it in LA. They arent the only ones.
Odd. I was wrong. According to the LA GOP, it was CD-4 where Cruz got the extra delegate.
That breakdown was as follows:
Trump 18,670 37.922%
Cruz 21,638 43.951%
http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
Trump is going to take both Florida and N.Y. which will solidify his lead and win. Florida has 99 delegates and N.Y. has 95.
exactly! Cruz has reached his high water mark.
Good one.
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