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Carpenter: The Real Story Coming Out of the Iowa Caucuses
Conservative Review ^ | 2/2/2016 | Amanda Carpenter

Posted on 02/02/2016 3:32:57 PM PST by conservativejoy

To listen to a number of folks in the media, Marco Rubio's third place finish in Iowa is just as good as finishing first. But bronze, no matter how you polish and spin it, ain't never gonna be gold.

Rubio was always expected to come in third, as evidenced by the fact that his own campaign was promoting their "3-2-1" strategy to the media only a few weeks ago. Meaning they hoped to place third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, and first in South Carolina.

No matter. The real story isn't the brainwashing prowess of Rubio's communications team; the real story is that Cruz beat him with record turnout, something that was supposed to favor Donald Trump, and Rubio is nipping at Trump's heels having finished one percent behind him. And it's worth repeating: Cruz won more Iowa votes than any other Republican in history. In history.

And this isn't your daddy's Iowa caucus, either.

Cruz's win came amid an onslaught of unconventional and negative attacks from both Trump and the GOP establishment. Trump questioned his birth, his finances, his faith, his personality and policy positions. Trump rolled out endorsements, such as Sarah Palin and Jerry Falwell, Jr., that were thought to take support away from Cruz. Mike Huckabee happily assisted, labeling Cruz a phony Christian and questioning his tithing. The governor of Iowa, in an unprecedented move, said Cruz must be stopped at all costs to save Iowa's ethanol program. The list goes on. And yet, Cruz still won more votes than any previous Republican. Even with Ben Carson remaining in the field and taking a healthy 9 percent of the vote.

To be sure, Cruz's opponents will seek to marginalize his win by comparing him to others who won Iowa and later sputtered out. But he’s different. Cruz marches on to New Hampshire with more cash on hand than any other Republican in the field. (Save Donald Trump who could conceivably write checks to his heart's content.) Cruz has more money, nearly $19 million, than Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Marco Rubio combined.

Cruz has the money, the infrastructure, and endorsements from conservative influence leaders. Think about Iowa. Trump rolled out the Palin endorsement to drum up conservative support. While Palin is generally well-regarded among conservatives, at least until the Trump endorsement, she doesn't have millions of listeners each week like Glenn Beck who also endorsed Cruz in Iowa. Endorsements are great, but endorsements from influence leaders are the ones that matter.

To be certain, Trump is not done. And no one knows what he will do next.

Trump may be down, but he's not out and any Republican who is going to win the nomination will have to defeat him first.

Comfortable with his then-high poll numbers, Trump skipped the last presidential debate. But there's another debate coming on Saturday night that he will go into weaker than ever. Trump, after bragging endlessly about the polls, has lost the only poll that has mattered thus far: the Iowa caucuses.

Where does Trump turn his fury? It wasn't effective on Cruz. As it likely turns to Rubio, it may be harder for Rubio to execute his 3-2-1 strategy and secure second place in New Hampshire. Trump may be down, but he's not out and any Republican who is going to win the nomination will have to defeat him first.

Cruz has. The next question is, can Rubio?


TOPICS: Society
KEYWORDS: cruz; iowacaucusanalysis; rubio; trump
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1 posted on 02/02/2016 3:32:57 PM PST by conservativejoy
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To: conservativejoy

The fact that Trump votes migrated to Rubio proves that Trump is actually the establishment candidate. Hes in with Big Money, a mover and shaker...in with the bankers, in with the pols. Cruz is the outsider as it turns out, in with no one. Trump better beware if Rubio surges he takes votes from Trump, not Cruz. Then it’s Cruz v. Rubio for the win.


2 posted on 02/02/2016 3:36:06 PM PST by ez (Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is... - Milton)
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To: ez

Which is hilarious since Cruz has spent his life in Washington DC. I doubt that will go unsaid over and over again.


3 posted on 02/02/2016 3:41:21 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: ez

It’s a who is more Godly contest in Iowa, despite the state always going Democrat.


4 posted on 02/02/2016 3:41:27 PM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.a)
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To: conservativejoy

Levin says Rubio spent more in Iowa than Trump and Cruz combined.


5 posted on 02/02/2016 3:45:56 PM PST by skeeter
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To: conservativejoy

The GOPe has been pushing Rubio on us since Bush failed. They will have their way.


6 posted on 02/02/2016 3:46:59 PM PST by pnut22
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To: A CA Guy

I am a Trump supporter and there is absolutely no way I would consider supporting Rubio unless it’s in the general election. My support would go to Cruz.

Rubio was picked and groomed to support establishment policies. They like his young look, ability to deliver speeches and talking points written by others, his rags to riches(hmmm potential riches) and his appeal to latinos.

Nobody really knows who the real Rubio is. Myself I put him in the RINO category.


7 posted on 02/02/2016 3:48:39 PM PST by fingers_crossed
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To: conservativejoy
I don't understand the big hoopla over Rubio finishing third. He was supposed to finish third anyway. Some people are acting like it is some kind of incredible change of scenario. The poll numbers were fake anyway, so its not like you can go by that.
8 posted on 02/02/2016 3:49:10 PM PST by Moorings
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To: skeeter

I heard that, too. The media has down played it.


9 posted on 02/02/2016 3:52:22 PM PST by conservativejoy (Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God ...We Can Elect Ted Cruz)
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To: napscoordinator

Cruz went to Washington in 2012. Not exactly a lifetime in Washington.


10 posted on 02/02/2016 3:54:29 PM PST by conservativejoy (Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God ...We Can Elect Ted Cruz)
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To: A CA Guy

A weird deal for sure, with Caliph Baraq +6 in 2012.


11 posted on 02/02/2016 3:55:13 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: conservativejoy

There was 99-03 too.
But point well taken


12 posted on 02/02/2016 3:57:18 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: pnut22

Rubio is now The Cheap Labor Express candidate.
The RNC owes them an amnesty candidate.
Yeb! flamed out spectacularly. More money spent per vote ever.
He was supposed to be The Designated Loser.
Guess Rubio is it this time.


13 posted on 02/02/2016 3:59:22 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: conservativejoy

He worked in the Bush administration before that


14 posted on 02/02/2016 4:00:10 PM PST by Lurkinanloomin (Know Islam, No Peace - No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: fingers_crossed

Rubio is an amnesty kick the can down the road Rino.


15 posted on 02/02/2016 4:05:35 PM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.a)
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To: conservativejoy

When did he do that easy job of convincing Kennedy to pass his Supreme court rulings? Certainly he was in DC during that time.


16 posted on 02/02/2016 4:06:52 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: fingers_crossed

I would prefer to see Cruz win, but I must admit that a Trump-Cruz ticket (with Trump at the top) would work very well for a whole host of reasons.


17 posted on 02/02/2016 4:14:38 PM PST by Alberta's Child (My mama said: "To get things done, you'd better not mess with Major Tom.")
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To: conservativejoy

Cruz went to work for the Bush campaign in 1999. After Bush became president, he was an associate deputy attorney general at the DOJ. Then, he was the director of policy planning at the Federal Trade Commission.

He was Solicitor General of Texas from 2003 to 2008. He attempted to run for Attorney General for Texas, but abandoned the bid because Greg Abbott decided to run for re-election.

Cruz was in private practice from 2008 until he became a US Senator in 2013.

After he graduated from Harvard Law School in 1995, he clerked for the US Court of Appeals 4th Circuit & then for William Rehnquist (SCOTUS) IN 1996.

He worked in the private sector; 2 different law firms, for about 6 years (1997-1998, 2008-2013).
It’s been 20 years, last year, since he graduated from law school.


18 posted on 02/02/2016 4:19:33 PM PST by KGeorge
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To: napscoordinator
spent his life in Washington????

He grew up in Texas .. spent the 90'S at Princeton and Harvard .. '99 to '03 at the FTC ... '03 to '09 in Texas as Texas Solicitor General and an Adjunct Professor at the University of Texas Law School in Austin.

Facts are a cruel taskmaster Nappy

19 posted on 02/02/2016 4:31:48 PM PST by tx_eggman (Liberalism is only possible in that moment when a man chooses Barabas over Christ.)
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To: conservativejoy

A radio show I heard today said that because Trump didn’t have an organization on the ground there was no one to speak for him at these caucuses and that made a vital difference. The other major candidates had people designated to speak up for them. This speaks to his inexperience with caucus states.


20 posted on 02/02/2016 4:32:09 PM PST by Bookwoman (No more Bushes or Clintons or RINOs"...and I am unanimous in this...")
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