Every Major Apple Analyst is Now Predicting a Decline in iPhone Sales

Business Insider Austrailia ^ | January 13, 2016 02:12 UTC | Jim Edwards

[Up Yours Marxists]

Piper Jaffrey's Gene Munster, one of the better-known analysts who covers Apple, has joined the ranks of his colleagues and competitors who are predicting a decline in iPhone sales when CEO Tim Cook reports his December quarterly earnings on January 26.

Of the seven most recent analyst reports that Business Insider has viewed, all of them now predict an upcoming slump in the number of iPhone units sold. One group, Pacific Crest, all but accused Apple of shading the truth about its sales prospects in a previous earnings call, in a note that said, "Management's confidence now looks highly likely to be misplaced, which suggests that it was either ignorant of the challenges it faced or deliberately overstating underlying trends."

Apple has never before reported a decline in iPhone sales. Although the stock has already declined 26% over the last few months, analysts have not yet booked-in an actual reported decline to their models. And the tech industry generally has never lived in a world in which Apple has struggled to sell more phones. So 2016 is looking like it will be a bumpy ride for CEO Tim Cook. (Of course, iPhone 7 - due in September - is likely to fix those problems.)

[Swordmaker]

The narrative is that the engineers and scientists chose them. I think it's more likely they were handed to them.

Nope. That's belied by the guy in the foreground with a Windows laptop. It's a choice. There are two Windows laptops in the room with a majority of Macs. That means they were choices.

[tacticalogic]

That means they were choices.

Sure there were choices. The implication in the narrative you provide is that the "scientists and engineers" chose them - a blatant fallacy of appeal to authority.

They work for a government agency. The "choices" were more likely made by a government purchasing agent and not absent political considerations.

[amigatec]

I work for the Government, and I can GUARANTEE the Government buys ONLY MS/Windows products.

[tacticalogic]

I work for the Government, and I can GUARANTEE the Government buys ONLY MS/Windows products.

Okay.

What's that federalsales@apple.com all about?

[dangerdoc]

I’m looking at buying a 2 year old LG phone, for the camera upgrade, 12 or 13 mpx, optical image stabilization, 4k video and less than $200.

I still like my 3 year old phone, but interested in the OIS and not too much of an investment leaving me with a back up phone.

I’ve looked at newer phones but price vs. features just isn’t there for me.

[dangerdoc]

I work for the government and if I want to contact my supervisor when she is not in the office, I need to contact her Blackberry.

That being said, I haven’t seen anything other than a Windows based computer on the base.

[Swordmaker]

Here's a reply from a NASA person on this issue on Quora:

What workstation (desktop / laptop) systems are used at NASA?

Does NASA use Apple computers? What is the typical workstation at NASA? How much flexibility do NASA employees have in their own workstation or other hardware they use in their work?

Answer:

Robert Frost, Instructor and Flight Controller in the Flight Operations Directorate
6k Views - Robert is a Most Viewed Writer in NASA with 350 endorsements.

There are two types of workstation:

1. A workstation that is integrated into a larger system for direct control or interaction with a system. An example of this would be the work stations used to send commands to a spacecraft.

2. A workstation that is used to perform job tasks that do not require an integrated cluster of identical machines. An example of this would be the desktop and laptop computers used in employee's offices.

The type of computers used for #1 are dictated by the design characteristics of the system. Employees usually have no say in that.

The type of computers used for #2 are dictated by the contractor that provides IT support. Currently NASA IT is handled under a contract called ACES by Hewlett-Packard. They provide a limited catalog of options employees can select from. Currently that catalog includes desktops and laptops from HP, Lenovo, and Apple. The previous contract (ODIN) primarily provided Dell computers.

Obviously if there is a justified business need, NASA can purchase a computer that is not in the ACES catalog.

Over the last few years, there has been a shift away from desktops to laptops (where the work allows) to better support an employee being able to have access to data at meetings and to work remotely.

My experience has been that Apple computers are quite common at the more research oriented centers and very much less common at the operations oriented centers. I personally use a Macbook Pro.

These Curiosity Lander scientists and engineers CHOSE the MacBook Pros.

[glock rocks]

I understand. Mine was new, cost $450. The advantage to me was putting all my apps, data and music onboard painlessly, and at 128 G storage, no worries about space. So ... probably convience more than anything. Well that, and I was grandfathered with unlimited data and was 3G, now LTE, which averages around 25mbps here. It was a good move for me.

[amigatec]

You do understand the Military PX/BX system does sell Apple products through there retail store don't you??

Ever shop in the VA Canteen store? I have e bought several iPads, and iPods, through the store for PERSONNEL USE.

Did you not read the link you posted??

[amigatec]

Yep where I work IT buys NOTHING but Dell PC’s they buy them by the pallet load. They also use Dell Servers as well.

And Smartphone, nothing but Blackberries.

[amigatec]

Here's the link the the AFEES Store (Military PX/BX).

https://www.shopmyexchange.com/browse/electronics/apple/_/N-103602

[tacticalogic]

You do understand the Military PX/BX system does sell Apple products through there retail store don't you??

Ever shop in the VA Canteen store?You do understand the Military PX/BX system does sell Apple products through there retail store don't you??

Did you not read the link you posted??

No, I didn't read the link at all. The text in the link I provided matching the reference on the page of contact information specifically for people wanting to buy apple products for government agencies was just some random text that I made up for the post.

[tacticalogic]

These Curiosity Lander scientists and engineers CHOSE the MacBook Pros.

Okay. The did choose them, but from a very limited range of choices with someone else deciding what the choices were going to be.

I'm still getting told that they can't be anything but Windows based devices, so I have to assume they must be running Windows.

[amigatec]

And on what do you base this?

[tacticalogic]

And on what do you base this?

The first part, on the information posted at #47.

The second part, on your guarantee (in caps no less) at #43.

[PJ-Comix]

I saw an interesting comment in the Wall Street Journal article on this topic. The reader stated that the REAL reason why people get new iPhones is to replace the battery on the oler iPhones they currently have. Here is the comment:

I just told my teenage son this weekend that the iPhone is the most expensive battery on the market. I explained that the only reason I even upgraded from an iPhone 5 to an iPhone 6 was because the battery was dead and it was not replaceable. In other words, my new battery--to get the same functionality I was already content with (and mostly the same components)--cost about $700.

If it were not for the [clever on Apple's part] battery design, I'm sure iPhone sales would actually be much lower.

[Swordmaker]

I'm still getting told that they can't be anything but Windows based devices, so I have to assume they must be running Windows.

Of course YOU have to assume that idiocy because YOU assume that Macs are nothing but "toys," and that assumption is making an ass out of you, but not me. There are close up photos showing views of those screens and they are running OS X.

Close up view over the shoulder of one of the Curiosity Scientists' Mac.
Yes, that is OS X's Doc running there at the bottom of the screen.

Nice try, dancing with two left feet. I've gone over this before. How many times have you argued this before, a dozen? How many times have I had to show these same photos, another dozen? Seems like it. The facts don't change just because YOU want them to. Why not give it a rest?

[HamiltonJay]

We are entering another worldwide recession, you are going to see sales of EVERYTHING, particularly things in Asia/China go way down... I think folks are trying to write way too much into 1 companies reaction to a global cycle here.

[Swordmaker]

If it were not for the [clever on Apple's part] battery design, I'm sure iPhone sales would actually be much lower.

Apple will replace batteries on any iPhone out of warranty for $69. You can get the same job done at Staples for about $59. There are multiple 3rd Party stores that will do it for around $29. . . or you can do it yourself for under $10-$15 if you are at all handy with tools. Why spend a mythical $700 to buy a new iPhone (which is an FUD campaign by Apple's competition) to replace an easily replaced battery?

You can get it done in 20 minutes at any Apple Store while you wait. If it is still in warranty, or under AppleCare, it's free.

[tacticalogic]

Of course YOU have to assume that idiocy because YOU assume that Macs are nothing but "toys," and that assumption is making an ass out of you, but not me. There are close up photos showing views of those screens and they are running OS X.

Not my assumption. It was guaranteed to be a Windows device by Amigatec at post #43.