Apple Stock panic debunking
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Posted on 01/06/2016 9:37:03 PM PST by Swordmaker
Wall Street is having an absolute freak out over reports that Apple recently scaled back its iPhone 6s orders for the first quarter of 2016. During trading on Wednesday, shares of Apple hit a 52 week low and even dipped below $100 for a brief while.
As the company’s primary revenue driver, it’s understandable that a dip in iPhone sales is cause for concern. All the more so given that some analysts are predicting that Apple in 2016 will experience an overall drop-off in iPhone sales for the first time in company history.
But if we take a step back and look at things rationally, it quickly becomes clear that concerns surrounding weakening iPhone demand are not only overblown, but entirely premature.
Right off the bat, let’s start with the original source of the story, Nikkei. According to the original report, iPhone 6s and 6s Plus production may be cut back by 30%. Now there are two things to consider here. First, Nikkei published a similar report back in January of 2013 that turned out to be completely misleading.
About three years ago, Nikkei said that Apple was scaling back iPhone 5 orders by a whopping 50% due to disappointing sales and weakening demand. And much like we’re seeing now in 2016, shares of Apple at the time dropped off significantly.
But as it turns out, Nikkei’s report turned out to be nothing more than hot air. In fact, the iPhone during every single quarter in 2013 set a new sales record. So much for a 50% drop in sales.
Now second, it’s never wise to read too deeply into unsubstantiated reports from the supply chain, if only because Apple’s supply chain is particularly complex. Tim Cook addressed this issue head-on during an earnings conference call back in 2013. His remarks back then are as relevant today as they were back then.
I know there has been lots of rumors about order cuts and so forth and so let me just take a moment to make a comment on these. I don’t want to comment on any particular rumor because I would spend my life doing that but I would suggest it’s good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans.
I’d also stress that even if a particular data point were factual it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex and we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supply performance can vary. The beginning inventory positions can vary, I mean there is just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on.
Not only that, but AppleInsider astutely points out that this is the first year where Apple’s iPhone lineup has consisted of two different generations of arguably similar devices.
“However, this is the first year Apple has sold two different generations of new pairs of flagships,” AI reports, “meaning that the company is again learning for the first time how many of its customers will opt for the latest and greatest 6s/6s Plus models versus going with the discounted previous year 6/6 Plus editions that offer the same size benefit without new features…”
Indeed, it’s important to remember that Apple’s flagships aren’t the only iPhone models available. For years, Apple has successfully managed to boost iPhone sales by selling older models to users at discounted prices. That being the case, it’s entirely plausible that the pool of interested iPhone 6 and 6 Plus buyers is far greater than Apple initially anticipated.
Furthermore, keep in mind that Apple will reportedly be launching a new 4-inch iPhone 6c model in April. That being the case, perhaps Apple is simply scaling back inventory ahead of time. Or, perhaps Apple found that iPhone 6s demand is lower due to the lack of a 4-inch form factor option. The bottom line is that there are simply too many balls in the air for anyone to declare with certainty that iPhone demand is in trouble.
Per usual, the notion that Apple’s iPhone reign has peaked has been unjustifiably magnified and is ridiculously premature.
We’ll get a better and more accurate picture of the strength of iPhone sales once Apple releases its holiday quarter earnings on January 26.
Flashplayer compatibility issues and ITunes hasnt done Apple any favors. People get tired of having to deal with that plus a lot of Android phones have more cheap software available and better resolution on their screens. The competition is also putting better cameras in their phones. They just aren’t being as competitive as thy used to. If Jobs were still alive that would probably change.
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No, FLASH was banished from iOS by Steve Jobs. . . and rightly so. There are browsers on iPhones and iPads that will play FLASH if you want it or need it. It is oil the least secure piece of software on the planet and should not be used on any platform.
Better resolution is meaningless when it causes your phone to be laggy and slow. . . for no advantage in visual performance. Beyond certain point, jsanders, the human eye cannot distinguish any improvement in more pixels. Adding pixels per inch just requires the hardware to move more pixels around for no purpose, requiring more Video ram and more horsepower and more battery life to do that. The only gain is bragging rights for the PR machine. That is why the iPhones are blowing away all the competition in geek bench tests even though the processor clocks are slower. They have appropriately pixel count screens and are not wasting cycles moving excess pixels around for no purposes except to please marketing people and people who want to brag about pixel count.
The same thing applies to huge pixel count cameras. The iPhone cameras beat all comers in photo shoot offs and are frequently used by professional photographers. The iPhone cameras have been used to shoot magazine spreads for National Geographic, Fashion Magazines, and even a full length feature film. You won't see that being done with your claimed "superior" Android cameras, because they really are not "superior." Lots of pixels only count when you are intending to blow up a photo. Larger pixels, such as what you find in the Apple camera, aid in light gathering and better exposures.
Software? In software comparisons, the best software is written first for iOS and then, perhaps ported to Android. Comparisons between iOS versions and Android versions show that the iOS versions are generally better with more features. There are hundreds of thousands of free apps on the Apple App store as well. . .
iTunes is no longer necessary for using an iPhone or an iPad and hasn't been for about five years.
Apple stock slumps amid iPhone sales worries
Associated Press-- By BRANDON BAILEYî±î€€î€î½
FILE - In this Sept. 9, 2015, file photo, Phil Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of worldwide marketing, talks about the pricing of the new iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus during the Apple event at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium in San Francisco. Apple fans keep buying iPhones, but Wall Street keeps worrying the company won't be able to match last year's blistering sales pace. Those fears were compounded Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2016, when the Wall Street Journal said one of Apple's most important contractors is sending some workers home on "early holiday" before the Chinese New Year in February. (AP Photo/Eric Rosberg, File)
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Apple fans keep buying iPhones, but Wall Street keeps worrying the company won't be able to match last year's blistering sales pace.
Shares in the world's most valuable company have fallen more than 15 percent over the last month, amid a drumbeat of news reports that some Asian parts suppliers are expecting Apple to trim orders for its signature smartphone this winter. Those fears were compounded Wednesday when the Wall Street Journal said one of Apple's most important contractors is sending some workers home on "early holiday" before the Chinese New Year in February.
Even an upbeat report from Apple announcing that its online App Store set a sales record last week failed to boost the stock. Its shares fell more than 2 percent Wednesday and were trading just above $100.
Apple Inc. declined comment Wednesday. But top executives at the Cupertino, California, company said last fall they expected to sell more iPhones during the last three months of 2015 than they did a year earlier, when the company sold a record 74.5 million.
Smart phones are rapidly becoming a commodity and Apple has no more “greatest hits” on its horizon. Within three years Apple will derive as much profit from iphones as it does from ipods. This why AAPL is in swoon and doom mode.
“Never get married to a stock” -— fanbois would do well to heed this old advice
__________
__________
The Ultimate Top 10 List of Stock Market Tips!
by Bulls and Bears
(Vancouver)
1) Never get married to a stock (it’s merely a vehicle to get paid)
2) Don’t make emotional decisions (rather, make logical choices)
3) Don’t get greedy (that’s nothing but trouble)
4) There’s a reason why blue chip stocks are blue chip (it’s an investment, not a gamble)
5) Diversify your portfolio and don’t put all your eggs in one basket
6) The most important indicators are: psychology, P/E ratio, history, volume, trends, company management and industry (these will cover about 90%)
7) Listening to other people isn’t always a good idea (they often know what you do)
8) Always leave yourself a cash buffer (inevitably you will have to buy-down)
9) Avoid borrowing money to invest (that can be very dangerous when interest kicks in)
10) Know when to cut your loses (sometimes it takes a smarter man to walk away)
These are some of the most important rules that I’ve learned over the years. I hope it helps!
They’re too big to work for me.
When I’m at work (where I happen to be typing this now) I carry my 5S snapped on its otter box case on the left strap of my suspenders. Works great.
Aside from having a new battery installed, this iPhone is still running strong.
everyone I know who purchased Apple products were buying tablets and not iphones this year
Damage control.
As Thomas Sowell pointed out in Knowledge and Decisions, whoever knows where a given stock is going in a near term has bet his last dime on the outcome. And anyone who has not bet the farm on something does not know what will happen.Time will show.
Seems like if you’ve bet your last dime on the outcome, you’d be trying to convince others of the contrary position. You’ll get better odds that way.
Are you an iPhone salesman?...lol
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