AAPL stock value irrationality Ping!
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Posted on 08/05/2015 10:52:44 AM PDT by Swordmaker
With Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) share price already down 15% from its high in April, numerous business articles have announced that Apple is in a "correction". By the usual definition, corrections occur to adjust for overvaluation of a stock. Even at its all-time high, Apple wasn't overvalued, making this a false correction.
(summary of the article's major points which parallel the points I've made on FreeRepublic — Swordmaker)
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
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Good news....thanks.
Sounds like a buying opportunity then.
Sometimes people just declare an expectation - devoid of any rational justification - and then act on surprise when that expectation fails to deliver.
Holy cow, dude. There have been dozens of articles and opinions written on Apple’s stock price the past few days, all of them basically negative. For your ping-list of all things related to Apple, you don’t post a single one. (Although you do comment on a couple simply to try and spin the fall in stock price.)
This is the one you post?
This is why people question your objectivity.
I know we pledged a truce and all that, but how can you consider this as anything less than being a corporate cheerleader for Apple? If you were truly interested in posting all information related to Apple, wouldn’t you have picked at least one of the dozens of articles that actually paints the stock price drop in a negative light?
Just curious.
I myself have disposed of some of my AAPL stock on that account.
By no means all.
Every time I read about the demise of Apple I think to myself “I wish I could fail my business to a trillion dollar company.”
Money getting ready to redeploy (move from dividends to bonds) when interest rates increase?
We know he’s biased and an Apple shill , thats been proven .
Just call it A new Apple ad.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bad-news-on-apples-stock-is-only-beginning-2015-08-04
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/08/03/apple-break-down-bad/31057587/
I can’t wait for the foaming reply .
The Chinese and Asians are boycotting the useless Apple watch. They don’t have any money to buy them due to the ChiCom stock market crash. This is what is killing the boy toys from Cupertino and why Apple stock price is sliding downhill as I predicted!
Actually, bolobaby, I've posted several articles on the irrational reaction of AAPL stock after the Financial Call last week. . . and even commented quite a few times. But you anti-Apple Hate Brigade members have done quite well in posting the negative pile-on articles from the poor anal-cysts who have been ginning this up, so that I have not had to post many myself. I've just pinged the list to those when they get posted. The ones I've posted are there, you seem to have missed them.
In fact, mine was posted first. . . with the after hours drop of 9%—before any of you anti-Apple posters got in your posts with your articles on the negative take, echoing the same wrong information claiming non-existent misses, waning markets, and poor Apple Watch sales, without any objective evidence!
This article is the first one that gets it right and actually DOES some real analysis, with facts, not reports based on lies, rumors and innuendo.
Sorry to disappoint you in your agenda to slur me, my objectivity, and my integrity.
The author of that article wrote an almost identical article back in 2013 about Apple and it then proceeded to increase in value by 100%. . . so much for his opinion, sopwith.
This drop in value has much more to do with a spate of FALSE news deliberately spread than anything real. Apple just posted a RECORD quarter and has great fundamentals. It is entirely irrational except for what the Financial News media has ginned up with the help of some after hours traders the evening of the Financial Conference call. THIS WAS PLANNED. Someone is making billions of dollars off of the movement of this much value. We've seen it too frequently for it not to be.
“Actually, bolobaby, I’ve posted several articles on the irrational reaction of AAPL stock after the Financial Call last week. . .”
Could you please post links to these articles? The only two articles I see that *you posted* related to the earnings are:
“Apple pulverizes the Street with record third quarter results”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3314891/posts
...which is an article that specifically omits the disappointing outlook which is driving a lot of the loss, and...
“Apple’s Earnings Matter Even More Than You Think”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3314870/posts
...which was actually pre-earnings release cheerleading.
So, when you say, “The ones I’ve posted are there, you seem to have missed them,” I can’t seem to find them. Unless, of course, when you say, “I’ve posted several articles on the irrational reaction of AAPL stock after the Financial Call,” you are referring to the irrational reaction in the first article...?
No hating here, Swordmaker, just - with ALL the press Apple stock has gotten in the past two weeks - you only found it fit to post this article and the MacDailyNews article. Curious, given the volume of Apple related content you normally post.
If you REALLY wanted to increase awareness of Apple happenings, wouldn’t you want to talk about the ups AND downs? Why only post the articles you see as positive?
Also, for the record, when you say, “But you anti-Apple Hate Brigade members have done quite well in posting the negative pile-on articles from the poor anal-cysts who have been ginning this up,” could you also be so kind as to post some links there? When I search on “Apple” in the title since earnings, I see a whopping THREE articles posted since then.
Here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3314976/posts (an information article - not really analysis)
Here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3320586/posts (an article about the stock market in general, not Apple)
Here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3320818/posts (Ah - finally one that directly addresses Apple’s losses!)
In the meantime, just to put that in perspective on the amount of content generated on this topic, when you look at http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl I can see about 100+ articles a day written on Apple since earnings, the vast majority that take a position are negative.
Just how many articles did you have to slough through to get to the two good ones you actually posted?
And just to be clear, when I say, “a whopping three articles since then,” I mean “related to the stock price and/or earnings.”
How many do you need that all say EXACTLY the same thing? In some of the ones I posted, I posted other articles from other sources. Sorry. There is no need to post multiple articles on the same topic. . . and every time I have found an article on FR on the subject, I have pinged the list. I am not in this to repost EVERY SINGLE ARTICLE from every source. The subject has been covered.
The facts have been covered. . . and the falsehoods published as well. How many articles do you want? DennisW posted some, Mad_as_he$$, and there were several others posted. All got pings to the 700 plus members of the ping list. I saw no reason to post more of the same from other sources saying exactly the same thing over and over with the same falsehoods. Frankly, I get tired of countering the false data.
WHAT "Disappointing outlook," bolobaby??!!??? Where is this horrible huge disappointing outlook? PLEASE tell us!
The expected "whisper number" outlook was, for the first time, NOT ROUNDED OFF! That whisper number was $51.16 BILLION. Sense when do they use such a precise number to two decimal places in a guesstimate of expected earnings? Never before. . . and in fact, they did NOT report such a number before Apple actually reported their guidance! This was a number that was published on the spur of the moment, only AFTER the guidance was issued. . . and to make Apple seem to miss, they had to NOT round off the average.
This was a number arrived at by averaging the estimates of all the anal-cysts' wild assed guesses. . . including some that were way high! A couple of those analysts guessed $65 BILLION. . . in a slow quarter that has NEVER had anything close to that. Ask any statistician if that precision is appropriate on such nebulous data. It's not. The level of reliability of the data does NOT justify it. Garbage in, Garbage out. These data were not reliable measurements, but merely the fallible opinions of fallible people. You don't assign that kind of precision to such data.
Apple's always conservative guidance was, this time, a projection of $49-$51 Billion in Revenues for the next quarter, compared to $41.2 Billion in the same quarter of 2014, a PROJECTED REVENUE GROWTH of almost 24% Year over Year, and the that's somehow DISAPPOINTING guidance?????
In other words, the "disappointing outlook" was that Apple's highest conservative guess at what they suggested they might make in a slow quarter was $160 million, or 0.25%, LESS than the un-rounded off whisper number (!), made up of the wild assed guesses of people who had no information to base their guesses on. . . amateurs without data. . . which was 24" MORE than they made in the same period last year! WoW! I am so blown away and disappointed they did not make a thousand times more than last year. . . no make that a MILLION times more. . . no make that a billion times more. What the market analysts did is just as silly. Why was the imprecise Whisper number NOT rounded off by those who reported it—as it has always been rounded off in the past? Why was that considered a "disappointing outlook?" when guidance really was right ON the expectations? Why did the press FALSELY claim that Apple missed the REVENUE expectations for the quarter when they EXCEEDED it????
And WHY did the Financial PRESS characterized as DISAPPOINTING a 24% year over year GROWTH projection??????
Why are some of these articles deliberately trying conflate Apple's Fourth Fiscal Quarter—the third CALENDAR quarter—with the Apple FIRST fiscal quarter—the fourth CALENDAR quarter—which is alway their best selling quarter to make the figures look really bad? This is deliberate obfuscation of the data for the low information investors to create Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) to stampede them into selling.
Can you tell me? Can you tell me why YOU are touting all the negative press pushing this negative meme which is based on totally FALSE claims on FreeRepublic from LIARS in the Financial Press???? Look at the data your self. It's easy to find. This article from Seeking Alpha is telling the truth.
I have a degrees in Economics and Finance. . . and it escapes me except for fundamental corruption in the media and Wall Street. . . maybe YOU can explain another reason for the lies!
“How many do you need that all say EXACTLY the same thing? In some of the ones I posted, I posted other articles from other sources. Sorry. There is no need to post multiple articles on the same topic. . . and every time I have found an article on FR on the subject, I have pinged the list. I am not in this to repost EVERY SINGLE ARTICLE from every source. The subject has been covered.”
Actually, I posted links to every article on the topic I could find based on...
1. Your article posting history and...
2. Other posters based on a title search including “Apple”
Therefore, since I have already demonstrably proven your initial claim in the response as false, it calls into question anything else said.
When you start off with a demonstrably proven false statement, how is anyone supposed to take anything else seriously? The articles were not posted.
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